Monday, March 31, 2008

#90: Order of Operations

-- A quick thought on the batting order of Adam LaRoche and Jason Bay

---Protecting Each Other---


Remember how excited Pirate fans were when Adam LaRoche was acquired last season?

It was thought that someone was finally going to provide Jason Bay with some protection in the lineup, or maybe that Bay would provide LaRoche some protection, depending on the lineup for that day.

Well, the two combined for 42 home runs (21 for each) in 1101 at-bats. They only hit 111 extra-base hits, including the homers.

At some point last year I compiled a list of how the team did based on where LaRoche and Bay were placed in the lineup. Considering the team did slightly better when only one of the two was in the lineup (winning percentage-wise), I don't think it really mattered.

Check it out.



Not that there's a lot you can draw from this. LaRoche was cold to start the season, Bay was cold to end it, so it really wasn't a situation where former manager Jim Tracy could win.

It's just a question: "If the two have more average seasons from wire to wire without the extreme slumps, it may actually help the team immensely."

We are, however, talking about the Pirates here.

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Sunday, March 30, 2008

#89: 2008 Pittsburgh Pirates Preview. Sort of.

-- A reasonably brief 2008 Pirate "Preview"

---Prepare for "16" and Beyond---


This preview has nothing to do with players, coaches, or statistics.

There are plenty of those around from various sources, with varying levels of sarcasm and seriousness.

I'm not going to bother.

As most Pirate fans know, the team that takes the field March 31, 2008, in Atlanta to face the Braves is not noticeably different than the one that left the field September 30th, 2007, in Pittsburgh after falling 6-5 to the St. Louis Cardinals.

I think my fanship has become so detached that I didn't even notice that the aforementioned season-ending loss gave Kip Wells another win against his former team.

I haven't even really been paying much attention at all to how Spring Training has unfolded. I catch a headline of how well (or not) one of the Pirate starters did, or which guy who wasn't going to make the team anyway hit a late home run...

I don't take much from Spring Training, anyway. You really can't. I mean, the Tampa Bay Devil Rays finished 18-8. That's the highest winning percentage in both Grapefruit and Cactus Leagues. Anyone want to put a dollar to my two that Tampa doesn't finish in last place? Or even odds they'll finish worst in the AL? Again?

I revisited last year's Pirate preview at BurghSportsGuys.com (a small-ish, but very intelligent message board for Pittsburgh fans that I highly recommend). I had a thought that I could almost substitute it for this year's preview. I'd just tweak a couple of names, make up a couple of far-fetched reasons to be optimistic, pick a few of the many reasons to doubt, and otherwise (somehow), write 2400 words on the subject.

I think my attention, instead, has been focused on the people who run this long-suffering ballclub. And there hasn't been much to watch the past few months.

Despite the obvious change in management, the tell-tale item that has remained the same is the ownership.

The only positive thing I take out of this new regime is that it's at least been more up front than the previous one. We were told early on that the Pirates would not be seeking to sign any prominent free agents. Not that the pool was very deep this offseason, anyway.

The Nutting Syndicate is still out to make as much bank as it can with as little cost to itself. It's a business, 100 percent. They continue to sell "the family experience" of PNC Park, when the fans were promised that if the Pirates got the new ballpark, they would build the city a competitive team.

This is the eighth year the Pirates will be playing at PNC Park, and it seems like it would take eight more years to build that winner (that's assuming the Syndicate would actually start trying).

They continue to throw out buzzwords like "accountability", "consistency", "atmosphere", and "(re)building process", without using words like, "contender", "playoffs", or "champions".

This year's team is not worth 2400 words.

I harbor no ill feelings toward the players, for they are all merely pawns in this, trying to play within an impossible system. I have not yet judged the new staff from the new President, Frank Coonely, through new General Manager Neal Huntington, and on to new Manager John Russell and his staff.

Russell has the hand he's been dealt. The difference he'll make versus what a manager like Joe Girardi (or even Joe Torre) would make is, in the big picture, negligible.

Huntington and his scouting staff will begin to shape their "legacy" by who they select with the 2nd overall pick in the draft, and the 32nd, for that matter. Also, he can't be afraid to shop his players around when their stock is high, especially Xavier Nady, Jason Bay, or even Adam LaRoche, as Steve Pearce is chomping at the bit to get regular playing time. And many fans are chomping at the bit to see it.

Let's be frank: this year, previewing the 2008 Pittsburgh Pirates does not involve where they will finish in the standings. A 16th consecutive losing season is virtually assured. Their actual finishing position in the National League Central standings is unimportant.

This year, people (and especially Pirates fans) should be previewing the folks who pull the strings, who have the power to turn this club around, and see if they will do things intelligently, patiently, and, most important of all, consistently.

Spending big money on a player is one thing. When that player is Matt Morris (a.k.a. 2008's version of 2007's Tony Armas), you can't help but slap your forehead (since former General Manager Dave Littlefield's, or Bob Nutting's, wasn't available). You can sign an aging, back-of-the-rotation pitcher (and not a very reliable one) for $10 million, but you can pass on Matt Weiters, a top-hitting catcher who's expected by many to be a star in this league for years because he's represented by superagent Scott Boras?

But not only that, you draft a relief pitcher instead?

Yes, I am one of many who are still sore over that.

The point of the above is that, while I feel sorry for the players who don the baseball black and gold, and while it's still too early to be throwing the brass' new employees under any buses, you have to believe that as long as Bob Nutting is the Master Puppeteer, the Pittsburgh Pirates will continue to be a laughing stock.

A fallen franchise.

A parasitic business, profiting off the misguided hopes of others.

Three years ago, I wrote another article urging Pirate fans to not "give up the ship before we set sail".

To my 27-year-old self, I say, "Man, we don't even have a boat."

(Including this sentence 957 words)

==========================================

That was the end of the "official" preview.

If you want some statistics to chew on, or my gut feelings on how the season will unfold, here are some quick hits.

- This spring training, the Pirates were outscored in the first 3 innings 44-17 (through their first 18 contests), earning a record of 6-12. In their final 11, they outscored the opposition in the first three frames, 26-14. They went 7-4.

- By my calculations, the probable Pirate rotation gave up 60 earned runs in 105 and two-thirds innings. If I calculated this right, that's an ERA of 5.11

- Their strikeout-to-walk ratio was nearly two-to-one (48K vs 26BB).

- Zach Duke did not walk a batter this spring training in 19 innings.

- The players who made the 25-man roster hit a combined 10 home runs.

- Those same players drew struck out 117 times, and drew 80 walks (almost a 3-to-2 ratio).

Take from that what you will.

Here are my annual projected standings. From the gut. Cuz all the "studying up" I did last year caused me to pick the NL Champion Rockies to finish with 101 losses, the World Series Champion Red Sox to finish 3rd in the AL East, and the Pirates to win over 70 games.

Maybe the gut will serve me better.

American League East
Yankees
Red Sox
Blue Jays
Orioles
Devil Rays

American League Central
Indians
Tigers
White Sox
Royals
Twins

American League West
Angels
Mariners
Rangers
A's


National League East
Braves
Mets
Phillies
Nationals
Marlins

National League Central
Reds
Brewers
Cubs
Cardinals
Pirates
Astros

National League West
Dodgers
Diamondbacks
Padres
Rockies
Giants

Wild Cards: Red Sox, Mets

ALDS: Indians over Red Sox, Yankees over Angels
NLDS: Mets over Reds, Dodgers over Braves

ALCS: Yankees over Indians
NLCS: Dodgers over Mets

WS: Yankees over Dodgers


Feel free to tell my gut why it's an idiot, and what it's missed during the off-season.

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Friday, March 14, 2008

#88: T-minus 2 weeks...

-- Continued Thoughts on Spring Training

-- Best story of the season so far

-- A poem



---Ready or Not...(Part 2)---


With apologies to Don Long, he's pretty much doomed.

The Pittsburgh Pirates' new hitting coach isn't going to fare any better than his last three predecessors.

This probably won't come as a shock to anyone who follows baseball, let alone the Bucs. Still, I feel some comparative stats I pulled up from this Spring Training demonstrates that it's insanity to expect vastly different results with essentially the same team. Still, these numbers have quashed even the faintest hope I had as a fan that the Pirates would surprise in what will once again be a weak National League Central.

Usually, I dismiss Spring Training and its results because pitchers are working on developing new pitches and sometimes having them hammered out of the park while tweaking, and managers are fiddling around with lineups before squeezing in players who won't make the 25-man roster anyway toward game's end just to try to "make an impression". On any given day, any team can have a late surge or a late collapse and it really doesn't matter. It's learning what they can while it's still "acceptable" to lose.

Looking at the Grapefruit League standings, the Pirates and the Phillies (the latter won the NL East last year in surprising fashion) are right at the bottom. And a team that's supposed to be as bad as (or worse than) the Pirates, Tampa Bay, is something like ten games over .500 at this point.

Sure, sure. It's all meaningless on the surface.

But, in theory, managers usually play their probable rotation pitchers in the first few innings and their regular hitters in the same frame (split squad games make it a bit of a different animal). And they're all trying to develop something. The playing field is generally level in that regard, too.

But check this:

In the first 3 innings of games (through March 16th's 6-3 win over Boston), the Pirates have been outscored 44 to 17.

After 5, the margin shrinks a little bit, but they are still in the hole 61-41.

Only in "make an impression" time, do the Pirates have an edge. Innings 6 through 9, the Pirates have trumped their opponents 49-38.

Jeff Manto, the hitting coach the past two seasons, got raked over the coals a bit too much. I am not saying he was "good", but I had actually thought him to be an upgrade over Gerald Perry. But when I check the season batting averages, neither was better or worse than the other.

In Manto's two seasons with the club, the Bucs hit .263 each year.

In Perry's three-year tenure, the club averaged .262 (.259 in '05, .260 in '04, and .267 in '03...the year of the infamous Aramis-Ramirez,-Randall-Simon,-and-Kenny- Lofton-to-the-Cubs-for-Bobby-Hill-and-a-bag-of-balls trade).

Both of them, as it turns out, were better than the guy who came before, Dave Clark. Pittsburgh's BA in '02 was .244, and only slightly better in '01 at .247.

It's tough to make something formidable out of a bunch of average-to-below-average parts. You can only do so much with what ownership and management will give you.

Mr. Long had best prepare himself for more than his fair share of criticism in what lies ahead.


---Billy Crystal Leads Off---


In the absence of anything encouraging coming out of Spring Training in Bradenton, I have to smile a little each time I hear a mention of Billy Crystal batting leadoff for the Yankees (I have, therefore, been smiling a little a lot).

The smile grows a little wider with the knowledge that this 60-year old got to live a(nother) dream. It was probably a dream older than his desire to become a comedian or an actor. I don't know very many guys who, as boys, didn't want to be a baseball player at some point.

But can you imagine getting that chance at 60, long after the dream's tombstone had eroded?. And to actually catch up with a major league pitch (even a slower major league pitch) and hit a ball just foul in your only appearance?

Consider that Crystal had done what he could do to stay close to the Yankees and to baseball, since he thought he would never be part of the on-field action himself. He directed the film "61*" about Roger Maris' breaking of Babe Ruth's home run record. He was even part owner of a major league team (that ironically ended the 3-year reign of his beloved Bombers in 2001).

Then, just in time for his 60th birthday, he finally got to step up to the plate.

I know the media has a tendency to beat things to death, and it's easy for non-Yankee fans to jeer at just about anything the top-spending club in the Majors does. The special part of this to me is that this story involves a man who just about everyone has heard of -- who we see as more than just a regular guy because of his successes in life -- who was simply overjoyed just to be a part of something. He didn't need to be successful. He wasn't actively seeking attention. He was enjoying the birthday present of his life.

And his gift was the opportunity to be young again, if only for a day.


---Remembering 1960---


This is a semi-clumsy segue, but we'll try it anyway.

Crystal was 12 years old when Bill Mazeroski crushed the hearts of Yankees fans everywhere with the only Game-Seven-of-the-World-Series-ending homer in league history. I was 12 years old when Francisco Cabrera crushed the hearts of Pirates fans everywhere with a blooper to left.

The major difference here is that Crystal got to enjoy Yankee championships in each of the following two years. And many more since, whereas I am still waiting for a playoff appearance (or even a .500 season, for that matter). And I will keep doing so for the foreseeable future.

Transcending time in a way to put things in perspective, is KDKA's Dave Crawley. He wrote a poem about the 1960 World Series when he was about the same age as Crystal was in '60, and I was in '92 (he was 13).

Before the conclusion of that dramatic and statistically disparate Fall Classic (Yankees dominated like no losing team had dominated before or since), it had been, in fact, 35 years since the Bucs had won their last title.

I'm posting the below because I find it appropriate that this, 2008, will be the 29th year of the Pirates' current championship drought.

Keep the faith, Mr. Crawley. I will, too, once I remember where I left it.

(link to actual story)

ODE TO THE BUCS
By Dave Crawley (used with permission from KDKA-Radio)

'TIS A SAD AND GLOOMY DAY IN PITT.
THE BUCS TRAIL, 7-5.
AS THEY TRY TO WIN THEIR FIRST WORLD SERIES SINCE 1925.

THE PIRATES LED THE SERIES
THREE GAMES TO TWO, YOU SEE.
BUT THE YANKEES WON THE NEXT GAME,
TO TIE IT, THREE TO THREE.

PITT WON THE SERIES IN '25
AND HASN'T WON IT SINCE.
TO BROADCAST THIS IMPORTANT GAME
IS OUR OLD FRIEND, BOB PRINCE.

"IT LOOKS PRETTY BAD FOR THE PIRATES
IN THE SMOKY CITY.
IF THEY SHOULD LOSE THE SERIES NOW
IT SURE WOULD BE A PITY.

"THERE'S TWO ON, ONE OUT IN THE LAST
OF INNING NUMBER EIGHT.
AND CLEANUP HITTER ROCKY NELSON
STRIDES UP TO THE PLATE.

"NELSON HITS A FLY TO LEFT.
THE FANS ALL GIVE A SHOUT.
BUT YOGI BERRA MAKES THE CATCH,
AND NOW, TWO MEN ARE OUT.

"CLEMENTE HITS A GROUNDER,
WHICH HE BEATS OUT FOR A HIT.
AND THE NEW YORK YANKEE PITCHER
IS ABOUT TO HAVE A FIT!

"A RUN JUST SCORED. IT'S 7 TO 6.
HAL SMITH IS AT THE PLATE.
HE'D LIKE TO KNOCK THE VERY NEXT PITCH
OUT OF PENNSYLVANIA STATE.

"HERE'S A LONG, HIGH DRIVE TO DEEP LEFT FIELD!
HE REALLY TAGGED THE BALL!
SHE'S GOING, SHE'S GOING...JUST KISS IT GOODBYE!
IT'S O'ER THE LEFT FIELD WALL!"

FOR THE NEW YORK YANKEES IN THE NINTH
IT THEN WAS DO OR DIE.
BUT THE YANKEES BOUNCED RIGHT BACK
WITH TWO BIG RUNS TO TIE.

"THE BUCS WILL WIN THE BALL GAME NOW
IF THEY CAN ONLY SCORE.
IF THEY DO NOT, WE'LL HAVE TO PLAY
AN EXTRA INNING MORE.

"UP TO THE PLATE STEPS MAZEROSKI
WITH ALL HIS MIGHT AND BRAWN.
HE GIVES THAT BALL A MIGHTY WHACK!
SHE'S GOING, GOING, GONE!

"MAZEROSKI ROUNDS THE BASES,
AMID THE MIGHTY CHEERS.
THE BUCS ARE NOW WORLD CHAMPIONS.
IT'S BEEN 35 LONG YEARS!"


Copyright 2006, CBS Radio

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