#125: Penguins (Championship) Post-Mortem

---Pens Dig a Little Deeper---

Only a man who knows what it is like to be defeated can reach down to the bottom of his soul and come up with the extra ounce of power it takes to win when the match is even. -- Mohammad Ali

I was wrong. But not by much.

"Wings in Seven" was the official prediction here, albeit with a whole bunch of caveats, readily acknowledging that the Penguins had about an equal shot.

After watching six very entertaining and tightly-contested hockey games (Game Five not included, of course), I have just a few thoughts that you might not find anywhere else. If you're reading this, you probably have already read the same stuff in a bajillion different places by now.

1) A hockey fan could not have honestly asked for a more even series.

Detroit had slight edges in a lot of areas, including Shots on Goal (which you should know by now is a highly-valued statistic around here), winning the shots battle 4 out of the 7 games, winning (and in a couple of cases outright crushing) the face-off battle in 4 of the 7 contests (tied in one of the other three).

Bad calls were few, but they evened out. Non calls were numerous, but they also evened out. Hit posts/crossbars eventually evened out. And it made for one of the most exciting series in any sport this decade.

Either team could have won this series in a four-game sweep. Any of the Penguin wins could have gone to Detroit. It was, as noted a couple weeks ago, that close.

I still think that Detroit is the better team overall, but not by a margin that would constitute 2009's outcome a "fluke". The Penguins winning last season would have been just that. They weren't ready.

In this case, the Penguins were just better at the right times to put them over the edge. And with questions about the health of Hart Trophy candidate Pavel Datysuk all series long (and his absence through the first four games), a different outcome could have certainly come about.


2) The above helps to illustrate how truly even the Eastern and Western conferences were this season. The best teams in the West were better than the East's best, but their worst teams were worse, too.

This equates to better overall teams in the West, but more battle testing in the East.

Goals scored, shots taken...a myriad of statistics over an 82-game regular season were very close between both of hockey's hemispheres.

Having a Game 7 come down to the final seconds between the each conference's best was not just intoxicating to behold, it was almost inevitable.


3) To Penguin fans: Just as in my Superbowl XLIII post, prepare for the fallout.

For many Detroit fans, losing this series would be akin to the Steelers losing a Superbowl to a team that was viewed as vastly inferior, but, in reality, pretty close.

The talk of referee favoritism and/or Commissioner interference will abound.

Do not respond to the Clueless. You only fuel their fire and increase your own blood pressure.

And we should have plenty of practice at this as Pittsburgh fans. The Clueless in Seattle and Arizona (and probably, more commonly, Steeler haters) have been trying to illegitimize championships for a few years now, all told.

This is no different, and all their ranting and railing will not make their claims of shenanigans true.

Ever.

Concentrate on the sporadic analytical and grudgingly complimentary posts you see on message boards.


4) In what I view to be a full validation of a post eleven months ago in which I said Mike Lange belongs in radio despite a multitude of fans who want him back in television, I give you this:



If Mike Lange were no longer on the radio side, this championship call would have been made by Paul Steigerwald. I say again that Steigerwald is a fine announcer, but he's viewed by most as "that other guy" who calls Penguins games (even though most people know his name).

Steigerwald's broadcast season ended after the Conference semi-finals as Versus and NBC had exclusive rights of the Conference and Cup Final rounds.

And with the NHL broadcasts available online for free, sometimes streaming live if you can find them, a large contingent of Pens fans can enjoy at least one more Cup-winning call from the legendary broadcaster.

If Lange were paid on radio what he'd be paid on TV, I'm sure he would be more than happy to stay on the radio side.


5) I am anxious to see what the future holds for these Penguins.

I do know that if the Penguins had qualified for the playoffs while Michel Therrien was at the team's helm, it would have been only barely.

Dan Bylsma's forechecking, puck-possession, pucks-to-the-net system was the difference, and this team was able to win it all after having about four months to practice it.

They were able to topple the mighty Detroit Red Wings by beating them at their own game...a game they have been playing for years.

The Penguins already had top-notch talent, but it was not even close to enough to overcome Detroit's system in 2008.

Now, Pittsburgh has top-notch talent, and a top-notch system.

With more practice, and the ability of general manager Ray Shero to keep the core of the team together, we could be looking at the next great dynasty in professional hockey.

#124: Building a Team vs. Cutting Costs

---McClouth = Three Prospects?---

This post comes with a disclaimer:

Until a consistent competitor emerges, one should view all personnel moves by the Pittsburgh Pirates as a way to make the team more profitable.

On Wednesday, June 3, the Pirates dealt All-Star and Gold Glove center fielder Nate McClouth to the Atlanta Braves for three minor leaguers (only one of whom has any major league experience).

Pirate fans once again lashed out in blogs, on message boards, on radio programs as to how the front office has no interest in bringing a winner to Pittsburgh. This September will almost certainly see the franchise set the all-time mark for consecutive losing seasons in North American professional sports.

Yet I feel I have to play Devil's Advocate for a while.

It was around the time that Neal Huntington took over as Pirates General Manager that I personally decided the question wasn't, "Will the Pirates end the string of losing seasons before it sets a new record?"

Instead, I've asked, "What will the record be once the string does end? Seventeen? Eighteen? Twenty? Twenty-five?"

With the depressing inevitability of setting the dubious precendent looming, and with a minor league system in shambles, I decided to adjust my own view of the Pirates rebuilding as if the losing streak was not an item.

To explain my dual stance on the McClouth trade, I'll provide you with some (occasionally painful) reminders of some trades that have been.

While most Pirate fans disapprove of the McClouth trade, it is, by far, not the most infamous trade in the last decade. That distinction rests squarely with former GM Dave Littlefield trading Aramis Ramirez, Kenny Lofton and Randall Simon to the Chicago Cubs for Bobby Hill, Jose Hernandez, Matt Bruback and Ray Sadler.

Where are they now? Ramirez is a star in Chicago, Lofton has gone on to help other teams compete for playoff berths, and Simon played for the Netherlands in the World Baseball Classic. Meanwhile, at last report, Hill plays for a minor league team in the Atlantic League, Hernandez was already an older player and struck out a lot while he played (I don't think he plays organized baseball anymore...correct me if you know differently), Bruback was claimed off waivers by San Diego less than a month after the trade (and no one noticed), and Sadler still plays in the minor leagues...for Tampa Bay.

At the time, for that trio, we should have been able to plunder a good percentage of their farm system. A "you win now, we win later" mentality. But, if not for the trade the way it went down, Littlefield probably isn't employed right now.

It was an absolutely abysmal deal, immediately and ever after. And it wasn't the last of its kind.

This is why I think this management staff, even if their goal is only to make money, is making a good showing of how to rebuild a franchise.

Flash forward to moves made by the current front office. When Xavier Nady and Damaso Marte were sent to the New York Yankees, the Pirates got three pitchers and a minor league outfielder. Two of those pitchers, Ross Ohlendorf and Jeff Karstens, represent the bottom two-fifths of the Pirates' starting rotation. They have a combined record of 7-8, which isn't terrible considering that their ERAs are 4.85 and 5.30, respectively.

The other pitcher, Daniel McCutchen, has similar numbers through 10 starts at Triple-A Indianapolis. That's not necessarily promising for a promotion.

The outfielder, Jose Tabata, is batting .250 with only three extra-base hits with Double-A Altoona. Not playing like a top-tier prospect in my evaluation, but he may also be suffering some emotional fallout from the situation with his wife abducting a baby.


Jason Bay ended up going to Boston in a three-way deal that brought the Pirates outfielder Brandon Moss, infielder Andy LaRoche, pitchers Craig Hansen, and Bryan Morris to the club.

The first three have already played for the Pirates. Moss is currently hitting over .250, and LaRoche over .300, but they have hit just three home runs combined. Hansen had a poor end of 2008 with the Pirates, and the beginning of 2009 wasn't much better. Before he went on the DL, he had an ERA of 5.68 and a WHIP of 1.58.

Bryan Morris was considered a top prospect in the Dodgers organization. He has not played yet this season according to the Lynchburg Hillcats' website because he's been on the disabled list.

In those trades, three Pirates were traded for eight minor leaguers, at least five of whom were major league ready.

Those are the kinds of baseball trades that can truly help to rebuild an organization.

One would hope, however, that one or two of these major leaguers would be close to producing like Jason Bay or Xavier Nady (or the pitching equivalent thereof, whatever that would be). That, so far, has not been the case.

Another thing should be considered, as well: the farm system is only one thing that needs to be rebuilt.

A fair percentage of major league management does not take the Pirates seriously.

This was the fault, at least in part, of Littlefield demanding too much from other teams approaching the trade deadline and being nonchalantly shrugged off. Then, at the zero-hour, he'd cave to pretty much whatever trade was offered. Oftentimes, it was a one-for-one deal. The major league starter Kip Wells being traded to the Texas Rangers for minor league reliever Jesse Chavez comes to mind.

Offering trades that seem to be fair could help erode the opinion that the Pirates are unrealistic. Holding firm on certain deals and not settling for "whatever" could dispel the thought the Pirates are pushovers.

With all of the above in mind, it's time to put the McClouth deal into perspective.

When a terrible organization needs to make moves to get better, they can't deal players with no value. They have to trade established players while their stock is high in order to get maximum return. Bay was doing well, Nady was doing well, and Marte was doing well when they were all traded, and multiple prospects came to the organization (the quality debate is an issue left to their scouting department and/or their office of player development).

The same happened this week. McClouth was performing at a high level. He led the team in home runs and RBIs when he was traded. Still, compared with last season, many of his statistics were down (batting average, on-base percentage), especially when you consider his hot start last year and where he was as of June 3, 2008. He appears to be on pace to exceed last year's home run total of 26, but at one point last season, he looked to be on track to hit 40 dingers.

Trading McClouth at this time might very well have been the best. If he would have a post-All-Star break slide this year, he might not have attracted anyone's interest...including his fans.

Now, to the acqusitions -

Pitcher Charlie Morton. He had an inauspicous start to his major league in a brief stint with the Braves last year, pitching 74.2 innings and compiling a record of 4-8 with an ERA of 6.15. He also walked 41, while striking out only 48.

This season in Triple-A, however, he appears ready to try again. He has a 7-2 record and a 2.26 ERA, and his strikeout-to-walk ratio is vastly improved: 62-17. His only start with the Indianapolis Indians so far was a seven-inning stint where he gave up no runs, allowing four hits and a walk and punching out seven.

How that will translate to major league hitters is another question.


Outfielder Gorkys Hernandez. Just what the Pirates need...another outfielder. Last time I checked, when Jack Wilson isn't in the line up, we get stuck with Brian Bixler for a while who is average defensively (at best) and a liability at the plate. I'm thinking next time we try to obtain a middle infielder.

Anyway, to the actual player. He was considered a top Braves prospect who hits for average more than power (.303 average in AA this year, but no home runs), but he has struck out 57 times so far in 240 plate appearances. Some contend that striking out a ton in the minors is generally a bad sign for the majors. His defense seems like it could be good, however. He has only one error in 55 games in his first year at Double-A.


Pitcher Jeff Locke. He pitches at the High-A level, but it hasn't been overwhelming by any stretch. For Atlanta's Myrtle Beach team, he had a 1-4 record with a 5.52 ERA, although last month he was voted the Carolina league's pitcher of the week.

Really, it's too early to judge how Mr. Locke will work out.


In sum, the trades made by the Pirates the last two seasons seem to at least try to provide the team with a couple of things it seemingly ignored under the previous leadership: options and depth.

If Neal Huntington is truly a genius in disguise, we won't begin to see it until at least 2011.

Until then, though, I can at least appreciate that this is how I thought things should have been run in the late 1990s and early 2000s. The fact that this strategy is about ten years late doesn't help the already-ailing Pirate fan base.

All that said, I will need to see the consistent success for myself before I begin to truly buy into it. In the meantime, I remind my small, but loyal readership:

Don't go to the games.

#123: Quick '09 Cup Final Thoughts

---Hockeytown VS. Steeltown II---

Last year, I really didn't give the Pens much of a chance.

Had it not been for Maxime Talbot, my "Wings in 5" prediction would have been correct on both counts. At least with the extra contest, Penguin fans in attendance for Game 6 got to see the Stanley Cup skated around for the first time on Mellon Arena ice (Pens won their two Cup-clinchers on the road).

Too bad the folks hoisting it wore red.

Now, the highly-anticipated rematch (at least for us Pens fans).

I don't think I need to tell any rational hockey fan that, this time, the Penguins have a solid chance to life the Chalice.

I'll make a quick mention that "Steeltown Sports" went 11-3 this postseason picking series based almost solely on Shots on Goal Differential, using the "post-trade deadline" number as the chief indicator.

People who think they know what they're talking about that Detroit got the tougher road to the Final because Carolina used all they had against New Jersey and Boston. They had nothing left for Pittsburgh.

If you've been reading here, you know that New Jersey was the pick to win over Carolina, but the statistics were close enough that the end result couldn't be a surprise. Carolina was practically declared the winner against Boston in round two right here. It just took longer than expected.

Pittsburgh, meanwhile, was only expected to struggle against the Capitals. And it took a momentous comeback from a 2-0 hole to finish of Washington in seven.

Detroit is right where they're supposed to be.

Now, to this series' SOGD:

Detroit +8.4 (+9.0)
Pittsburgh -1.3 (+6.5)

We've determined that the post-trade deadline statistics (in parentheses) is a little stronger of an indicator. If you've watched the Penguins' march through the playoffs, you know that their positive SOGD after the deadline is the real thing.

They outshot the Capitals (who had a better SOGD in both timeframes) in every contest. Only the work of goalie Simeon Varlamov kept the Capitals in the hunt.

That's what makes this series harder to read.

Remember, this forechecking, puck-possesion style that head coach Dan Bylsma brought to the team is still relatively new. The Red Wings have been doing it for a while.

Perish the thought: the Pens might actually be better than +6.5, but there just hasn't been enough of a sample size to know for sure.

Still, if the Penguins don't take advantage of Detroit's injured state early, and steal at least one of the first two games at Joe Louis Arena this weekend, it's going to be tough to beat this team.

Unlike Washington, Detroit doesn't need to rely on one, or even two players to keep them on the attack.

Another thing to consider: Much of Detroit's firepower over the years have come from face-off wins.

This post season, Detroit has gone 9-6-1 on face-offs.

The Penguins: 8-7-2

Very close.

Just like this series will be. Too close to call.

In which case, one falls back on SOGD.

Wings in 7.

=============

Other notes:

- Detroit fans are already breaking out their list of excuses if they lose. It's being compiled under the, "Well, we're the better team, so if we lose, it has to be something.

I'm betting we'll have: "We weren't healthy;" "The Penguins had a much easier road to the Final;" and my personal favorite Statement of the Clueless: "NHL Commissioner Gary Bettman made sure Detroit got called for a lot of bad penalties so that his Chosen One (Crosby) got to hoist the Cup."


- It's the Stanley Cup Final. No "s" at the end. Though for the life of me, I can't find a definitive source to back me up. Just my awesome t-shirt from Walmart.


- I must be the only person in the Pittsburgh fan base would couldn't care less about Marian Hossa going to Detroit. The Penguins did well last year, but it was about the players.

Their success since February this season has been about a system, not unlike the Big Red Machine.

You don't necessarily need an Evgeni Malkin or a Sidney Crosby - or a Marian Hossa - to take over and win you a couple games. You need to make sure your players are in the right place at the right time.


- I'm very curious to see the shots on goal differential between these two teams. The last time they met, it was February 8. About a week before Michel Therrien was given the axe. But even in the two games, Detroit outshot Pittsburgh by a total of four shots. Now with the Penguins feeling inclined to shoot the puck more frequently, and with Nicklas Lidstrom less than 100%, the Penguins could surprise in that department.


- Both teams are very deep. Stop with the "Detroit is much deeper" talk. It's not a great advantage. Then again, neither is Pittsburgh's power play against Detroit's penalty kill.


- Maybe I should say "Pens in Seven." It's that close. Really. Maybe "Seven" is my prediction. I'll just sit back and enjoy what's going to be a classic series.

#122: Examining the Unstable AFC North

---A Pre-preseason Analysis---

What follows is an article I wrote for BleacherReport.com

I have something riding on the quality and readability of my work there, so any comments, for good or for ill, would be appreciated.

Feel free to comment also on other articles I wrote there that I did not address here at "Steeltown Sports".

=======

Since the NFL's most recent realignment in 2002, the AFC North did not have a repeat champion until the Pittsburgh Steelers accomplished the feat in 2007 and 2008.

The division is so erratic that whichever team the experts prophesy will claim the crown, often, ends up underachieving.

Superbowl XL champion Pittsburgh was expected to follow up its fifth championship with a division title in 2006, but it missed the playoffs altogether.

In 2007, the Baltimore Ravens were lauded as the next juggernaut and were projected to repeat their 2006 performance. They won only five games.

The Cleveland Browns just missed out on winning the division in '07 due to a head-to-head tiebreaker with the Steelers, and they were the choice of many to supplant Pittsburgh in '08. Instead, injury and ineptitude culminated in a four-win campaign.

Much of the talk before this season's training camp indicates another two-horse race between the Steelers and the Ravens in 2009.

The NFL has averaged roughly six new teams to the 16-team playoff field every season since the realignment. The '08 season saw a one-win team from the previous year become a division champion (the Miami Dolphins).

Is it truly a stretch to envision either of Ohio's professional football teams in the AFC North's top spot at the beginning of January?

=============

The Pittsburgh Steelers are the champions.

While they will vie for their third consecutive division championship without the services of starting inside linebacker Larry Foote (who was signed by Detroit) and cornerback Bryant McFadden (Arizona), it appears that third-year pros Lawrence Timmons and William Gay are more than capable of taking their respective places.

Star linebackers James Harrison and LaMarr Woodley, and All-Pro strong safety Troy Polamalu will return, and the defense should be its usual, dominant self under coordinator Dick LeBeau. Even the defensive line is not so old that it cannot still wreak havoc. First-round draft choice Evander "Ziggy" Hood will learn much from Aaron Smith, Casey Hampton and Brett Keisel this season, and he will be ready for regular duty in 2010.

As it has been the last few years, Pittsburgh's success will hinge on the health of quarterback Ben Roethlisberger.

The questions surrounding his offensive line are as numerous as the sacks it has collectively allowed.

Two offensive linemen were taken in the 2009 draft, and only one, second-round pick Kraig Urbik, is widely considered a challenger for the right guard position. A.Q. Shipley, center out of Penn State, is a long shot to challenge Justin Hartwig this season.

The Steelers also re-signed tackles Max Starks and Willie Colon, as well as guard Chris Kemoeatu and backup lineman Trai Essex. It seems the team's front office is satisfied with a Superbowl title, and less concerned with allowing the fourth-most sacks in the league (49) and boasting the fourth-worst rushing attack in terms of yards per carry (3.7).

As long as Roethlisberger is upright, the Steelers will always have a shot to win a game, a division, or a title, but even a large quarterback can only take so many hits.

=========================

The Baltimore Ravens are hungry.

Last season, they fell just short of winning the division title (the tip of a football) and advancing to the Superbowl (Troy Polamalu's interception ultimately denied them).

Quarterback Joe Flacco does not figure to experience a "sophomore slump", just as another popular AFC North QB a few seasons ago, and second-year coach John Harbaugh knows anything is possible.

At first glance, it seems like the Ravens are pretty much intact. Pulling back a layer, however, reveals that this team looks poised to take a step back.

Baltimore eventually re-signed linebacker Ray Lewis, but one of these seasons will be the one he falls from the tier of the elite. And, as Lewis had expressed great interest in going to another team this off-season, there may also be a small, but noticeable loss of respect for a player who has long been the "heart" of the defense.

The franchise-tagging of outside linebacker Terrell Suggs was a good move, but the loss of inside linebacker Bart Scott and defensive coordinator Rex Ryan (to the Jets) may disrupt the chaotic harmony of the Ravens' defensive front seven.

Running back Le'Ron McClain could constitute Baltimore's "Weapon X" in 2009, but Flacco will have to maintain his 6.9 yards per pass average to keep the opposing defenses from keying on McClain, and he'll have to exceed it to keep the the team a championship contender. The health of Todd Heap will factor into Flacco's success.

Draft-wise, there is no player that screams "instant impact", but offensive lineman Michael Oher and defensive end Paul Kruger will help keep their respective units from falling too far when age catches up to Baltimore's present starters.

=============

The Cincinnati Bengals are optimistic.

They spent most of last season without an experienced quarterback. Carson Palmer was injured most of the season, playing in only three games and throwing only four touchdowns. His replacement, Ryan Fitzpatrick (now in Buffalo) played in 13 games and threw only eight touchdowns against nine interceptions.

The Bengals' scoring output in 2008 was the lowest in all of pro football, and it was barely half of what they amassed in 2007 (204 versus 380).

Defensively, Cincinnati allowed the most points in the division (364), but that number was better than any team in the NFC West. In terms of total yards allowed, they were in the league's top half.

Palmer has told the press that he likes his team's chances, but that will rest squarely on him. The off-season claimed prolific wide receiver T.J Houshmanzadeh (Seattle). The acquisition of Laveranues Coles, while a decent receiver, does not provide a replacement. Chad "Johnson" Ochocinco is is not only volatile on the field, but also in his own locker room.

The most significant keys to Cincy's success depend on the defense continuing to build on last season and Carson Palmer improving his fourth quarter efficiency from 2007. That season, Palmer's QB rating in the fourth quarter was roughly 65. A tired defense and an inefficient quarterback spells certain doom in close contests.

The Bengals did have eleven draft picks, but the first few were not at the so-called "skill" positions. It will also be interesting to see how strong safety Roy Williams and defensive tackle Tank Johnson contribute to the evolution of the Bengal 'D'.

There are still too many issues in the Queen City to believe that it will be able to challenge Pittsburgh if the defending champs stay healthy.

==========

The Cleveland Browns are adrift.

By season's end, injuries had riddled them so much at the quarterback position that Bruce Gradkowski started the final game, playing in an offense he had just started to learn on an emergency basis.

Perhaps the number of quarterback injuries and an ineffective rushing attack (3.9 yards per rush average) prompted the powers-that-be to make sure they drafted a prominent offensive lineman (Alex Mack), but they traded down to get him.

Cleveland's front office brought in Eric Mangini to replace Romeo Crennel. It is unclear where Mangini's priorities lie. The Browns have several needs to be filled, and instead of focusing on making one or two positions deep and dominant, he appears to be trying to affix band-aids to all of them at once.

The Browns need a reliable backup for tailback Jamal Lewis, but they drafted a running back in the final round (with the 195th pick), and signed untested free agent Noah Herron.

The Browns need to make sure that whichever quarterback is healthy at the moment has someone to catch his passes. They lost tight end Kellen Winslow, Jr. to Tampa Bay and possibly wide receiver Donte Stallworth to a charge of vehicular manslaughter while DUI.

The solution, for now, has been to sign second- or third-tier WRs in David Patten and Mike Furrey (and so-so tight end Robert Royal), draft promising wideout Brian Robiskie, and gamble on receiver Mohamed Massaquoi. Braylon Edwards, coming off a miserable season in 2008, and Joshua Cribbs are the only receivers who have any real rapport with quarterbacks Derek Anderson and Brady Quinn.

It is unlikely that Mangini's new offense (which he will no doubt have) will be effective at first.

While Cleveland's pass defense was in the middle of the heap, its run-stopping unit was near the bottom. This is where Mangini may have done the best job. Signing former Jet Eric Barton, and linebackers David Bowens and Bo Ruud may help plug up the middle.

Between the two teams from the Buckeye State, the Cleveland Browns have the better shot at surprising the division. They have enough question marks that, if they mostly answer "yes", could produce a winner.

#121: Conference Finals Preview

---Hockey's Final Four---

Another three out of four for Steeltown Sports (see this post for details).

This blog is at 75% at picking winners (nine out of 12) based on one important statistic: Shots on Goal Differential.

The trick is going to be refining the formula a little more so that next year, the number will be higher.

Here's what happened in round two:

=============

Eastern Conference

1. Boston -0.5 (-1.9)
6. Carolina +3.1 (+2.8)

Carolina won in seven games (plus overtime).

Carolina was the predicted winner here. The only miscalculation was that the series would not go more than six games.

One reason is that, Carolina only outshot Boston by an average of 2 shots per game, instead of the projected 3.6 to 4.7 shots that the formula above indicated.

Perhaps the Hurricanes are cooling off. This will put the onus squarely on Cam Ward for the Conference Finals.

===============

2. Washington +4.0 (+7.0)
4. Pittsburgh -1.3 (+6.5)

Pittsburgh won in seven games.

The early statistics indicate that Washington would win fairly handily. The late statistics pointed to a long-series win for Washington. The previous post on this allowed for a Penguins victory, dependent on the play of Simeon Varlamov.

What was not anticipated is that the Penguins outshot the Capitals in each game of the series, and winning the SOGD battle by a staggering average of 10.9 shots per game.

Varlamov held his own, and, occasionally, carried his whole team for the first six games, having a save percentage of .907. He faced 226 shots and allowed only 21 through. While that may not seem inhuman, consider that Varlamov's experience at the NHL level includes just five regular season starts. That means he started 14 games in the Stanley Cup playoffs and was crucial in Capitals rallying from a three-games-to-one deficit against the New York Rangers. Then he has to come in and face the two top forwards (not on his team) in the next round, and try to come back from a three-games-to-two series deficit.

By contrast, Marc-Andre Fleury had a save percentage of .888 through the first six games (.878 for the series). If not for the unforeseen onslaught by the Penguins, the Capitals may have prevailed.

Still, head coach Dan Bylsma's new system has made the Penguins' +6.5 post-deadline SOGD look like the rule, rather than the exception.


================

Western Conference:

2. Detroit +8.4 (+9.0)
8. Anaheim -0.2 (+3.3)

Detroit won in seven games. Five was the prediction.

If not for the .931 save percentage of one Jonas Hiller during the series, this series would have been over in four, and the Anaheim Ducks would have gone the way of the Columbus Blue Jackets.

The Red Wings outshot the Ducks by a total of 302-193. That makes the average difference a ridiculous 15.6 shots per game.

As far as Anaheim scoring goals against a so-called "weak link" in Chris Osgood, it's tough to complain too much about a .911 save percentage for the series.

================

3. Vancouver -0.7 (-1.3)
4. Chicago +4.1 (+5.0)

Chicago won in six games after spotting the Canucks Game One.

Vancouver only outshot the Blackhawks in one game (Game Six). For the series, the 'Hawks averaged 5.3 shots better than their Canadian counterparts. The regular season differential was in Chicago's favor by 4.8. That number is pretty dead on.

==================

Of the four teams left, three have a positive SOGD for the season. The Penguins are the only one that finished with a negative, but you almost have to go with the post-trade deadline number (+6.5) with the Penguins because they have been very consistent with their puck possession under the philosophy of Dan Bylsma.

All the pretenders have been eliminated.

Now, looking ahead to Round Three, it should provide us with two very competitive series.

================

Western Conference Final

2. Detroit +8.4 (+9.0)
4. Chicago +4.1 (+5.0)


Detroit's advantage in the season-long "magic stat" is about double that of Chicago's. It's just slightly less than that after the trade deadline.

However, Detroit vanquished a stronger opponent in Anaheim than Chicago disposed of in Vancouver.

The Red Wings might not average 40 shots a game, but Nikolai Khabibulin (one-time Stanley Cup-winning goalie) will have to do a pretty good Jonas Hiller impression to make this series go beyond five games. From what I saw in the Vancouver series, though (allowing more than two goals in four of the six contests), I don't think it's likely. Plus, Chicago's youth, at this stage of the playoffs, will take its toll.

Red Wings in five.

======

4. Pittsburgh -1.3 (+6.5)
6. Carolina +3.1 (+2.8)

This is the series that the "magic stat" takes sort of a back seat on. Looking at the Penguins' charge from 10th place to 4th in a little over a month, with no sign at all of slowing down in the playoffs, one would have to favor the +6.5 number here.

That said, Carolina has only played one more post-season game than the Penguins (14 vs. 13), but in both Game 7s, they needed late-game heroics to advance.

Goalie Cam Ward will give the Hurricanes the best chance of staying in games and stealing a road game or two in this series. He is unshakable and has a 4-0 record in Game 7s.

The Penguins will have to keep the shots coming to the net and hog the vulcanized rubber as much as they can. They will also need to ensure they don't have a letdown in Game One (coming from a series with as much hype as any in recent memory to a series where there is no real rivalry).

Sidney Crosby has turned his game all the way on (perhaps), and it's only a matter of time before Evgeni Malkin reawakens and Chris Kunitz joins the fray.

Penguins in six.

========================

More blog-like thoughts (read: less stat-like thoughts) on the Penguins/Hurricanes series -- (aka - long, listing, stream of consciousness that might not have a point... thanks in advance for reading)

- Just like in the Capitals series, the Hurricane fans are already planting the seeds in the case of their team's eventual demise.

Once again, message boards and blogs (and even the infrequent column) talks about how the only reason the Penguins keep winning is because NHL Commissioner Gary Bettman is trying to arrange it so Sidney Crosby can lift the Stanley Cup.

I remember thinking similar things in 2001 when the Colorado Avalanche defeated the New Jersey Devils in a seven-game classic. "Colorado only won because the League hates the trap defense and they want Ray Bourque to win it all."

I know what it's like. Colorado is my least favorite NHL franchise, and it made me smile that they finished last in their conference this year. I just wish they had done so with Patrick Roy in net.

Example taken straight from a Yahoo! message board (appropriately, from a Yahoo...)

"My cousin's wife's brother's father in law knows one of the refs who worked game 4 of the Pens-Caps series and after a couple of drinks he said that they were told by the NHL (not in writing or by email) to make tons of calls against the Caps so that "Crosby the Canadian" (as the refs call him in private) would have better stats than Ovechkin. He also said that the refs were given instructions last year in the SCF to favor the Penguins but, because astute people ... were onto the conspiracy, the NHL decided to let the Wings win the series even though they have a large number of players of European descent."

Before I continue, I'll give you a chance to go buy a new brain on eBay, or scoop up as much of the one that just oozed out of your head as you can. I can't guarantee it will... I dunno... gelatinize?

I know I advocate non-confrontation in sports talk, but I don't think there's any answer to that kind of mind-numbing prattle except for a palm strike to the nose. It's like the Seattle Seahawk apologists and the (somewhat smaller number of) Arizona Cardinals apologists in the NFL about the refs giving the Steelers a Superbowl title or two.

I guess, for the world to accept that the Penguins/Crosby/Malkin/whoever are the real deal, they will have to win all their playoff games when they are at a decided disadvantage on penalty calls (because it couldn't possibly be the caliber of talent the other team is trying to stop that leads to penalties on them).

News for you: The Penguins received more penalties than the Redwings in 3 of the 6 games, and it was even in a fourth game. Overall, Pittsburgh was called for 38, and Detroit was called for 36. "Missed" calls about evened out. Unfortunately, there's no way to keep track of this.

Washington fans in this most recent series would seem to have a better beef. In no game did the Penguins take more penalties than the Capitals. Total margin: Capitals 38, Penguins 23.

One of the more misunderstood aspects of hockey: more shots leads to more power play chances, not the other way around.

How often do you see the statistic "Shots on Power play" after one expires and, maybe, the team who had the PP only fired one or two shots?

Detroit took 10 fewer penalties than Anaheim in their series. Chicago took 2 fewer penalties.

The lone anomaly is Boston. They lost the shots battle by a small amount overall, but they took 8 fewer penalties and still lost. Of course, that may be why Carolina didn't outshoot the Bruins as badly as the statistics would indicate they should have.


Conspiracy quashed (as effectively as a falsely-but-firmly held belief can be quashed).

---

One other quick thought. Brooks Orpik is not a thug. Carolina message boards make him out to be the next Bobby Probert or Adam Foote or something, but it's not quite that bad. He can level a dirty hit, no doubt. But that's not how he makes his living.

He can do this, too:

#120: SM on TV

---Rizzo Sports Weekly---

This blog has become too low-budget for me to actually find and insert a "camera" icon in the title. We'll just say the "Microphone" represents "media-related stuff".

On Tuesday, el Cinco de Mayo, I had the pleasure of being a guest on "Rizzo Sports Weekly", a program that airs on local television in the Kittanning area.

The host, Mike Rizzo, is a fellow blogger (see links on the right) and media personality who invited me to appear on his program, almost seemingly on a whim. I accepted in like manner.

We talked about the predicament of the Penguins as well as the NHL playoffs in general, the reality of the 2009 Pittsburgh Pirates (and beyond), a little bit about the Steelers' draft selection and subsequent status, and a very little bit about WPIAL football perhaps expanding to six classifications.

The below is the result.

Feel free to comment, but no need to point out that I look like I'm doped up on something.

#119: And Onto Round Two

---The Annual Analysis Continues---

Anyone who made series predictions based off post #118 did pretty well.

Once again, Steeltown Sports is studying the trend of Shots on Goal Differential (SOGD) in the National Hockey League as it pertains to eventual series and Stanley Cup winners.

For those joining in mid-stream, SOGD is calculated by taking the average number of shots per game taken by one team, and subtracting the average number of shots given up.

Example: Team A gets an average of 31 shots per game, and give up 28. Team A's Shots on Goal Differential is +3.

No team has won the Stanley Cup with a negative SOGD for the season since the 1990-91 Penguins (who got Ronnie Francis and Ulf Samuelsson at the trade deadline).

Here's a post-mortem breakdown of each first-round series, how it fell out, and why (in SOGD terms).

Each series will contain the teams' SOGD for the season, and, in parentheses, their SOGD after the trade deadline. Figures in red highlight the dreaded "negative".

=========================

Eastern Conference:

1. Boston -0.5 (-1.9)
8. Montreal -1.7 (-4.3)

For the regular season, Boston had a +1.2 advantage, and a +2.4 advantage after March 4. Both would indicate that Boston had a decided advantage.

In the series itself, Boston outshot Montreal by an average of 4.75 per game (19 total). The Bruins outshot Montreal in every game except Game 2, where the shots were even at 31 a side.

Boston was the pick, and the winner.

=============

2. Washington +4.0 (+7.0)
7. NY Rangers +2.7 (+3.7)

Washington had the advantage in both time frames, but New York was in the positive itself. Still, the +1.3 season-long advantage, and +3.3 post-deadline advantage was even greater than Boston's edge over Montreal.

That said, this series went a full seven games, and was not decided until the last five minutes of the finale.

What happened?

The previous post mentioned that if an upset were to be pulled along the way, there would be much credit given to the underdog's goaltender.

In Game One, the Capitals outshot New York 35 to 21, but the Rangers prevailed 4-3.

In Game Two, Washington again had a decided SOG advantage, 35 to 24, but lost 1-0.

Henrik Lundqvist, the Rangers' netminder, faced 70 total shots on the road, but allowed only 3 goals, giving a save percentage of .956.

In Game Four, a 2-1 Rangers victory, New York was outshot 39 to 21. The Capitals nearly doubled them up and still lost. One headline read, "Lundqvist makes 38 saves, Rangers take 3-1 lead".

New York was outshot in every game except Game Six, and the total SOGD for the series was Washington +7.14 (which was about their post-deadline amount).

Lundqvist made what should have been a quick Capitals victory a true challenge.

Incidentally, New York was outshot 13 to 1 in the final period of Game 7.

Washington was the pick, but was nearly upset by goaltender Lundqvist.

============

3. New Jersey +3.5 (+4.0)
6. Carolina +3.1 (+2.8)

Considering how close these two teams were in SOGD, it is not surprising that the game was not decided until the final minute of another Game Seven.

The great Martin Brodeur completely collapsed with under two minutes to go and Carolina escaped to the second round.

The statistical pick was New Jersey, but it was also said that a Carolina victory would only constitute a minor upset.

The series featured two overtime games, and another game that was .2 seconds from going into OT. New Jersey outshot Carolina in four of the seven games, but the ultimate average margin in the series was Devils +0.43 (see the difference in full-regular season average).

One would have to think that Martin Brodeur at age 30 would have won the series.

===================================

4. Pittsburgh -1.3 (+6.5)
5. Philadelphia -2.8 (-2.4)

This was one of two series that was highlighted in the previous post that might not be as close as expected, considering the post-deadline success of the Penguins in the SOGD category.

The final series differential was Penguins +1.0, (similar to the +1.5 season differential that Pittsburgh had over Philly...not so similar to the post-deadline difference) and it's why the series seemed so close.

Still, the Pens were the statistical pick, and they prevailed.

Overall, the Eastern Conference saw three of the four teams with the superior SOGD advance, and the one that did not go on missed out by a razor-thin margin.

====================

Now to the Western Conference:

1. San Jose +6.0 (+3.1)
8. Anaheim -0.2 (+3.3)

The previous post said that the "upset alert" was in play for this particular series as the Ducks had vastly improved their SOGD down the home stretch, while the heavily-favored Sharks went almost as far in the other direction.

The Ducks were the pick, and they prevailed in six games.

The series itself, though, was a statistical anomaly.

Anaheim was outshot in each of the six games played. Sometimes badly. The final advantage: San Jose +12.17

However, the mitigating circumstance was Jonas Hiller, the Ducks' goalie. He was the Number One Star in three of the games (One, Two and Six), and the Number Two Star in Game Four). For those keeping track, the Ducks one all four games where Hiller was given props.

So, a shutdown-goalie helps negate a heavy SOGD advantage.

Hiller's save percentage this year was .921. San Jose's Evgeni Nabakov's was just .910. This, too, may have been a key factor. Just two years ago, the Ducks, behind Jean-Sebastien Giguere, were able to defeat a heavily-touted Detroit Red Wings team in the Western Conference Final, another outcome attributed to goalie play.

Perhaps next year, we'll add save percentage to the formula.

Still, the SOGD theory has given four winners out of five so far.

=======================

2. Detroit +8.4 (+9.0)
7. Columbus +1.1 (-1.1)

This was the "lock" of the first round, and it didn't disappoint. The Red Wings easily swept aside the Blue Jackets in their first-ever trip to the post-season in four games. The overall average margin in SOGD was Detroit +7.5, once again not too far off from their total season advantage.

Not much else needs to be said with regard to this series, but it is starting to appear that the post-deadline difference does not loom as large as expected.

Steeltown Sports is five-of-six so far in picking winners.

==============

3. Vancouver -0.7 (-1.3)
6. St. Louis -0.9 (+0.9)

This series, statistically speaking, could have gone either way. As it was, Vancouver needed all of four games to eliminate the Blues. There is nothing above that would have suggested so simple a dismantling.

Roberto Luongo stood tall and wide in the net for the Canucks and was the Number One Star in three of the four games. St. Louis won the shots-on-goal battle in two of the games, and the teams were even in another. Overall, the Blues enjoyed a +2.75 series advantage, but Luongo nullified it.

Goaltender experience and Vancouver's slight SOGD for the season might have pointed the other way, but, for the sake of argument, the Blues were the pick by virtue of their superior post-deadline SOGD success, which was the new wrinkle added to this year's study.

=====================

4. Chicago +4.1 (+5.0)
5. Calgary +2.5 (+4.5)

This series was expected to be the most exciting of all the first rounders. Although it didn't quite go seven games, there was a sense that, entering Game Six in Calgary, it was destined to do so, as the home team had won each time.

Chicago won the SOG battle in all but the last game, which was dominated by the Flames 44 to 16. Blackhawks goalie, Nikolai Khabibulin, who thwarted the Flames for the Stanley Cup in 2004 while with Tampa Bay, was the Number One Star in Game Six.

The disparity in that game, though, was enough to give Calgary an overall SOGD advantage of a slim +0.17. Without Khabibulin's heroics, there would certainly have been a Game Seven.

First Round Results: Six winners (Boston, Washington, Pittsburgh, Anaheim, Detroit, and Chicago), one clear loser (St. Louis) and one loser that, perhaps, should not have been (New Jersey).

Quickly looking ahead to Round Two:

Eastern Conference

1. Boston -0.5 (-1.9)
6. Carolina +3.1 (+2.8)

Clearly, Boston will be favored. They shouldn't be, according to our data. Carolina has a season-long differential advantage of +3.6, and +4.7 after the deadline. From the first round data, it seems that the season-long difference is the more indicative of the two, but that should still be enough to see Carolina win in no more than six games.

Plus, Cam Ward is a superior goalie to Tim Thomas. His Conn Smythe award in his trophy case should help bolster the 'Canes.

===============

2. Washington +4.0 (+7.0)
4. Pittsburgh -1.3 (+6.5)

Post-trade deadline numbers indicate another seven-gamer for the Capitals, but the regular season numbers point to a Washington victory in five.

The biggest question mark is Washington goaltender Simeon Varlamov. He performed admirably against the Rangers, but he will now face two of the world's best forwards in Evgeni Malkin and Sidney Crosby. The 20-year old has a very small sample set to draw any definitive conclusions. If the Penguins can rattle Varlamov early, they may be able to eke out a victory in seven by stealing a game or two at the Verizon center.

Washington is the pick, however.

Still, congratulations to Dan Bylsma on officially becoming the head coach. He deserves the chance after transforming the Penguins' offensive philosophy, and, with it, their fortune.

================

Western Conference:

2. Detroit +8.4 (+9.0)
8. Anaheim -0.2 (+3.3)

Detroit should win in five. And it may be that they lose Game One after being off for over a week. They've also had trouble playing in Anaheim, but this year's Ducks aren't the Champs from two years ago. The Ducks are due for a letdown after beating their up-state rivals.

================

3. Vancouver -0.7 (-1.3)
4. Chicago +4.1 (+5.0)

If Vancouver somehow wins this series, Roberto Luongo will be the reason (injuries, too, can always hamper "futures" picks).

Everything else has already been covered.

==================

Of the eight teams that remain, four have a season SOGD in the positive, and each of them are pitted against a team with a negative SOGD on the season. If history over the past 18 years is any indication, only Carolina, Washington, Detroit, or Chicago will hoist Lord Stanley's chalice in June. But, should one of the others beat the odds, we'll find out why that team can join the Pens of 1990-1991 in the rare feat.

So, buckle up, and hope one at least one of these series gets beyond five games. Otherwise, we'll be forced to watch the NBA playoffs.

And only David Stern wants that.

#118: Shots on Goal and the NHL Playoffs

---My Favorite Stat, with a Twist---

It's that time of year again: Time to test the Shots on Goal Differential (SOGD) theory we've (or at least *I've*) been watching for the past several years (refer to this post).

Looking at last year, the Western Conference teams sent four teams with a positive SOGD and four teams with a negative, and the first round matchups pitted a positive vs. a negative. The positive teams all advanced to round two.

The East didn't shake out so evenly. In fact, three of the four semi-finalists had negative SOGDs. The Penguins had the worst SOGD in the league among all playoff teams, and they got to the Final.

There has been no Stanley Cup winner with a negative SOGD since the 1990-91 Penguins, but, in that case, there was a significant mitigating circumstance; at the trade deadline, they shanghaied the Hartford Whalers for the ultimate face-off man in Ronnie Francis and a juggernaut on defense in Ulf Samuelsson. It's very possible, that their SOGD was already so far in the negative that even if the Pens were in the positive from the deadline on, there wouldn't have been enough time to vault them into the positive.

This year could be similar for the Penguins.

For the season, the Pens are -1.3. They bottomed out somewhere near -4 at some point. Since Dan Bylsma took over for Michel Therrien as Penguins head coach on February 15, the Penguins are a +4.4.

Since the trade deadline (March 4), the Penguins are nearly +6.5.

Last year, the additions of Marian Hossa, Pascal Dupuis, and Hal Gill at the deadline helped generate more shots on goal, too (though I don't know to what extent).

So, this year's chart will display the seed, the team, their season-long SOGD, and their (SOGD after the trade deadline - playoff teams only).


Eastern Conference
1. Boston -0.5 (-1.9)
2. Washington +4.0 (+7.0)
3. New Jersey +3.5 (+4.0)
4. Pittsburgh -1.3 (+6.5)
5. Philadelphia -2.8 (-2.4)
6. Carolina +3.1 (+2.8)
7. NY Rangers +2.7 (+3.7)
8. Montreal -1.7 (-4.3)
===================================
9. Florida -5.3
10. Buffalo -0.9
11. Ottawa +0.8
12. Toronto +1.5
13. Atlanta -4.6
14. Tampa Bay -4.4
15. NY Islanders -4.6

Western Conference
1. San Jose +6.0 (+3.1)
2. Detroit +8.4 (+9.0)
3. Vancouver -0.7 (-1.3)
4. Chicago +4.1 (+5.0)
5. Calgary +2.5 (+4.5)
6. St. Louis -0.9 (+0.9)
7. Columbus +1.1 (-1.1)
8. Anaheim -0.2 (+3.3)
========================
9. Minnesota -3.2
10. Nashville -0.4
11. Edmonton -4.5
12. Dallas +0.8
13. Phoenix -3.5
14. Los Angeles +1.0
15. Colorado -0.2


Based on the above, the following two first-round picks could be made with a certain degree of certainty.

- Detroit Red Wings over Columbus Blue Jackets.

Even though Columbus seems to play Detroit tough during the regular season, the defending Stanley Cup champs have an advantage in SOGD of +7.3 (+10.1 since the trade deadline), and they're facing a franchise making its initial trip to the postseason. This is the lock of the first round.

- Pittsburgh Penguins over Philadelphia Flyers.

The East pits season-long negative SOGD against negative and positive vs. positive in an odd coincidence, but the trade deadline difference between these two teams in particular serves as the tie-breaker. Pittsburgh is the clear statistical favorite (+8.9).

All the top seeds in the East should hold serve. The most intriguing series is the New Jersey Devils versus the Carolina Hurricanes. Carolina goaltender Cam Ward is playing on another planet right now. A Hurricane series victory could only be scored as a light upset.

Upset watch in the West: Anaheim Ducks over the San Jose Sharks. Anaheim actually has the SOGD edge since the trade deadline. Home ice advantage may not help the Sharks against a team that won the Cup just two years ago.

The statistic shows that St. Louis may pull the upset over Vancouver, but Canucks netminder Roberto Luongo could be the difference-maker here.

Meanwhile, Chicago and Calgary should be the most entertaining series in the first round.

Long term, it looks like a Detroit/Washington Stanley Cup Final, but the Penguins, the Sharks, or even the Blackhawks or the Flames could crash the "Rematch of 1998".

If the winners don't break out as the SOGD stats spell out, praise will be heaped upon the opposing goalie in direct proportion to how great the differential is between the teams.

In any case, the 2009 Stanley Cup Playoffs should feature more series that go at least six games than last year.

#117: With Low Expectations Comes...

---No Benefit of Doubt---

Theatre of the Mindless...

The Scene: Cubicle in an office. The phone rings. A nineteen-year old INTERN picks up.

INTERN: Yahoo! Sports newsdesk.

BUSCH STADIUM: Yes, we're calling to confirm the final score of today's Pirates/Cardinals game.

INTERN (bored beyond belief at unpaid internship): Ok. Cardinals....?

BUSCH STADIUM: Six, Four, Pirates

INTERN (briefly fixated on a picture of some supermodel on his wall calendar): Got it. Cardinals Six, Four Pirates. Thanks.

BUSCH STADIUM: Actual...

INTERN hangs up phone.

The result:




This is the reason to love the Pittsburgh Pirates. People automatically assume they're going to lose every single game and laze off. They can't lose 82 soon enough. And you wonder what kind of a game/week/season they would have to put together to get that photo spot where CC Sabathia is in the example above. Or at least have their story be first on the news feed on the far right. For even an hour.

Game 2 tonight.

Bucs are guaranteed of not having a losing record until at least Wednesday night.

#116: Pitt Run Done

---Curtains---

The Pitt Panthers men's basketball team had probably their best season ever.

Prior to the start of the 2008-2009 season, Pitt had never:

- Defeated a #1 ranked team

- Been a #1 ranked team

- Advanced beyond the Sweet Sixteen round in the NCAA Tournament (after the field expanded to 64 teams)


This season, they did all three (and they accomplished the first two things twice. And they were within a few moments and a couple turnovers of advancing to their first Final Four since 1941.

Unfortunately, the title of this post does not just refer to the end of the season. With the certain departures of Forward Sam Young and Point Guard Levance Fields, as well as the likely departure of Center Dejuan Blair (though he has denied it), the three players who really made the true difference as the blue and gold traversed the deadly Big East, it marks the end of what will be a consecutive string of 20-win seasons and strong showings against quality programs. Tyrell Biggs' graduation won't help, either.

While the recruitment effort surely saw a boost this year with the Panthers establishing themselves in the national limelight, there is going to be a year or two when Jamie Dixon's squad will be simply a mediocre team.

Watching Brad Wanamaker choke at the free throw line throughout the tournament and take stupid fouls was not encouraging.

Seeing Jermaine Dixon cough up the basketball at the midcourt stripe (with a four point lead) late against Villanova, and then committing a foul on the other end (contesting what was an almost-certain layup, anyway) was probably what ultimately cost the Panthers a berth in the Final Four.

The players who remain, even with the added experience of being on an Elite Eight team, aren't the same type of players that they're losing. They haven't shown the potential to become those.

The 2009-2010 Panthers' squad will be the true measuring stick as to how good of a coach Jamie Dixon is.

This is not to say that Dixon is even just an average coach. There are coaches with more talent year after year who have failed to accomplish what Dixon has done. Gameplans are going to have to change. Louisville, West Virginia, and even Connecticut (who may be facing punishment from the NCAA for recruitment violations) are all young teams. Notre Dame is showing some promise. It is uncertain what Villanova will look like.

The point is that the Big East is not going to fade into a sub-par conference anytime in the near future, and Pitt will have a large target on their back, even if the main reasons for their success this season won't be there this fall.

Expect Pitt to take a large step back next season, perhaps even in the manner that the Georgetown Hoyas did this year.

On the very slim chance that Dejuan Blair does not leave for the NBA, there will still be a significant step back, but the Panthers might be able to eke into the NCAA tournament as a double-digit seed.

One thing is for certain: Radio listeners will have to prepare for color announcer Dick Groat's constant stream of groans.

That may be the most unpleasant thing of all.