#96: Thoughts on Pens Playoff Push

---WOOOOO(hat ever this meansss...)---

If blogging paid as much as one of my many jobs, I'd post more, I swear.

So, I've pretty much neglected this relic of a blog for a month, and, in the meantime, the Pittsburgh Penguins have come to within one win of the Stanley Cup Finals, steamrolling their opponents en route.

Comments that have come my way more than a few times during this incredible stretch have been along the lines of, "So, looks like your shots-on-goal-differential stat isn't going to hold up this year!"

Well, first, while it's unlikely that either Dallas or Philadelphia will erase a 3-0 series deficit when they've both been so outplayed, let's not start talking Cup until game 4 is won.

Secondly, the Penguins absolute explosion got me looking through some more historical stats to see if there's something I missed.

As it so happens, there is.

At the time of my last post on the subject, I had failed to identify the last team to win the Stanley Cup that posted a negative SOGD.

That team was none other than the 1990-1991 Pittsburgh Penguins.

And this year's squad, thanks to General Manager Ray Shero, has an eerie similarity. On March 4, 1991, the Penguins acquired (stole) Ron Francis and Ulf Samuelsson from Hartford (perhaps you've heard of them). With a key face-off man and an intimidating (and admittedly dirty) defenseman, the Penguins won their first Stanley Cup.

This year, Pittsburgh acquired Marian Hossa, Pascal Dupuis, and Hal Gill at the trade deadline. Don't forget, that veteran Gary Roberts returned just in time for the playoffs after missing much of the season with a broken leg. And Sidney Crosby, the Penguins only face-off man to record better than a 50% win percentage during the regular season missed most of it.

With all the components either returned or acquired, the Pens have posted a +4.5 SOGD entering the 4th game of the Eastern Conference Finals (currently +2.0 vs Philly, they were actually a bit behind the New York Rangers at -0.2, and they shellacked the undermanned Ottawa Senators by a margin of +12.25).

Almost certainly up next: The Detroit Red Wings.

I won't go too far into this at the moment, but I'm calling them the Big Red(Wing) Machine. They are peaking at the right time, and they have the ability to win face-offs and control the puck consistently. Barring some kind of injury or a brilliant Penguin gameplan, this could be a 5-game exit for the plucky Pens.

Hopefully, we get to analyze it a bit more in less than a week's time.

In the meantime, I hope one of my friends at ThePensBlog can fill me in on why they hate the Wings so much. They've been a team I've enjoyed watching over the last decade and a half...particularly when they would take it to the Colorado Avalanche.

====Awesome Pics Time=====

During the Game One of the Rangers series, remember all the whining New York fans did after Marty Straka was called for interference penalty that helped Pittsburgh knock the winning goal home? Let's look at that call...


Uhm. I don't know. That looks pretty interference-y to me.


The result:


It's Malkin's goal, but Sid doesn't care.


Jaromir Jagr almost kills the celebration.


Fleury loves you, post.


How close was it?


Daaaamn...


After winning Game Four, New York thought they'd try to send Pittsburgh another physical message. Hal Gill (left-center) knows better.


He thinks it's kinda cute.


Then, in Game One of the Conference Finals, Evgeni Malkin shows Flyers Captain Mike Richards that he can take whatever is dished, and then top it.


Malkin just misses.


*SQUISH*


"(however you say 'Ouch' in Russian)".


Flyers back on the attack! But he whiffs. Hossa removes him.


The Gonch sees the Malk! Goes deep!


Touchdown! ... oops, I mean...


Biron thinks, "This is not good."


Malkin disagrees.

#95: The Rise of Nate McClouth

---Taking the Lead?---

Remember the days when visiting announcers would say: "(Their team) taking on Jason Bay and the Pittsburgh Pirates" or some other prominent player?

If you need proof that Pirates' centerfielder Nate McClouth is getting noticed around the league, just listen to this brief snipped that started off today's Pirates/Cubs broadcast on Chicago's WGN:



OMG. SRSLY.

Nate McClouth is either going to be the breakout player in the Major Leagues this year, or he is going to struggle for the rest of the season once his impressive surge is over.

Shortly after opening day, I posted this brief article about how McClouth called his shot in Atlanta, which, had it not been for the bullpen that night, would have been the decisive blow (the Bucs won in 12, anyway, so maybe I should let it alone).

But through Friday's 3-2 loss at Wrigley to the Cubs, he has hit safely in all 16 games this season, sporting a .380 batting average and an on-base percentage near .440

And with a little early-season pop to his bat, and he's on pace for 30 home runs! Not only that, but all three of his homers this year have come in the 8th or 9th innings...ON THE ROAD.

The Pirates might actually have something resembling a clutch player on their squad this season. Or at least until general manager Neal Huntington is able to land a major-league ready prospect, and several other mid-level prospects for him.

Sell high.

And now some more screenshots:



Score of Monday's Dodger game as Takashi Saito hangs one...




Score after Saito hangs one.

Seriously. That's stuff that seems to happen to the Bucs when they have a tender lead.


Now, to another note.

My absolute dislike for the Chicago Cubs is pretty well documented. Most of that dislike stems from their fan base. They gave me another reason today.

In this series of screen shots, look at the stream of liquid that is coming from the top left.








Ha! The beverage missed him!


In this next shot, you can see the fan in the next shot getting ready to dump the drink.


WGN was savvy enough to cut away from their
replay before the spill was re-shown.


That's okay.


Nate gets a little bit of payback.


Unfortunately, he ended up missed the offending fan's head by about three sections to the left and four rows back. And there was no one else on base, but that's not his fault.

We might be seeing something special here.

Let's hope former pitching coach Jim Colborn doesn't emerge from somewhere to tinker with anything.

#94: Roberts Provides Jump Start

---Energy to Spare---

Did anyone miss Gary Roberts?

The Ottawa Senators sure didn't.

A man who has historically haunted the Senators in playoffs past wasted no time in continuing his dominance while making most Penguin fans forget that he was ever hurt.

The Penguins have been missing the "man-in-front" element of their offense for much of the season. Roberts cleaned up some trash less than 2 minutes into the game.


A little backhanded trick he learned in 1954.


Not only were the Senators not prepared for Roberts, they were no match for an Evgeni Malkin/Petr Sykora 2-on-1.


You're supposed to defend against the pass.


The game was pretty much over, but Malkin continues his push to become the best player on the team.


Almost Roberts-esque.


Ottawa had no defense for that "guy parked in front", seemingly all night. Roberts one-ups the upstart Malkin.


He was just in his neighborhood.


Why Gerber contested the goal so vehemently was a bit confusing to me. There was no chance of a comeback that late in the game. Perhaps it was just to improve his line?

Anyway, the Sens started taking some cheap shots at Roberts at the end of a fracas-filled game. Most of my regular readers know that I'm not a fan of hockey fighting, and that I know I'm in the minority when it comes to that, but if there's a forward in the league you don't want to mess with, it's Gary Roberts.

A playoff virgin by the name of Cody Bass tried to get the last word.


If he's serious, he should change his name to "Brass". Or "Balls."
If he's just posing, he should change his name to "Mudd".


The Penguins dominated by the score of 4-0, which, at this pace, looks like it might also be the final series tally.


I hope that fan isn't pondering an answer that question.
It was definitively answered.

==========================

Frequent reader/commenter karri asked about other statistics other than Shots-on-Goal Differential (SOGD) making a difference. Specifically (and you can tell she's been reviewing my previous posts), she mentioned Scoring Efficiency and Save Percentage.

The Penguins ended the season 3rd best in overall Scoring Efficiency (10.58 percent), and 4th best in team Save Percentage (91.6 percent). That was key in offsetting the 4th-worst SOGD (-3.1), and granting them 2nd seed in the Eastern Conference.

Their counterpart in the Western Conference (2nd-seeded San Jose), had the opposite issue:

Their SOGD was tied for 2nd best (with the New York Rangers) at +5.5.

However, their team Save Percentage was 15th overall (90.5 percent) and they were 22nd in Scoring Efficiency (8.89 percent).

Here's why I continue to stress SOGD over the other two statistics (although they are important in determining why a team with a negative SOGD is winning games):

Vancouver had a better Save Percentage (91.3 percent) and better Scoring Efficiency (9.16 percent) than the top two seeds in the West (Detroit and San Jose) Their SOGD for the season was -1.4, far worse than either of the top seeds, putting them in a 3-way tie for 9th, and three points back of Nashville for the final spot.

Goalies and Goal Scorers get hot and cold in stretches. In the midst of a best-of-7 series, a cold streak by either would be enough to eliminate any team. By continuing to get pucks to the net, a team can simultaneously keep pressure on the opposing goalie and keeping that pressure off their own netminder. And more shots gives more of a chance for a fluke goal.

Remember, in the last ten years (perhaps further back), no team with a negative SOGD has won the Stanley Cup. That doesn't mean there aren't some series victories in store for a team in that situation.

The Penguins could be a special case because they have been without key personnel all season, and they are getting healthy at the right time. Unfortunately for Ottawa, the reverse has happened.

And another possibility, should the Pens or another "negative" team win it all, is the new rules in hockey since the lockout. Two-line passes during odd man breaks have helped open this thing up, so if you get a couple of odd man breaks, it could be the difference between losing 2-1 and winning 3-2.

Given the Penguins performance Wednesday night, where they handily won the Shots-on-Goal battle, getting Gary Roberts back might be enough to turn the tide and help the Penguins buck this very strong statistical trend.

We will, of course, find out more as the postseason continues and the Penguins opponents get better.

#93: History is Against the Penguins

---Pens in a (Statistically) Bad Spot---

The Penguins are in trouble.

Those who have read any of my recent hockey-related posts or heard me broadcast a word on the subject of the NHL know that I am fixated on a particular hockey statistic.

The statistic is Shots on Goal Differential. For the hockey novice, it is simply the number of shots a team takes per game, minus the number of shots a team surrenders per game (the shots, of course, have to be on net). Over the course of a season, the average solidifies.

I continually run into doubters, saying that it's nothing substantial.

Make no mistake, there is a tendency.

In the past 10 years (and perhaps further), no team with a negative Shots on Goal Differential (henceforth referred to as "SOGD") has won the Stanley Cup.

In 2006, Carolina won the prize with a +0.7, the lowest in the decade. They faced an 8th-seeded Edmonton Oiler team with a +4.2 SOGD and were taken to seven games, even with the loss of Dwayne Roloson for the Western Conference representatives (who was commonly credited as being a key component in Edmonton's outstanding run).

Last season, six of the 16 playoff teams entered with a negative Shots on Goal Differential (henceforth referred to as SOGD). Of the six, five were eliminated in the first round. The only survivor (Buffalo), played a team with a slightly worse SOGD (New York Islanders) in Round One. Buffalo then scored a statistical upset, when they defeated the New York Rangers in 6 games (despite their -1.5 SOGD vs. New York's +3.1).

Last season in the Western Conference, Anaheim scored the series upset over Detroit, despite their season's SOGD average being approximately six shots fewer. Again, top-notch goalie play (Jean-Sebastien Giguere) is commonly agreed to have propelled the Ducks.

In 2008, exactly half of the field has an average SOGD in the negative. Tied for fourth worst in the league in that statistic (as well as tied for worst in the playoff field with Minnesota) is none other than Pittsburgh.

Despite all their offensive talent, even on the blue line, the Penguins still spend more time in their own zone, on average, than they do in their opponents'.

The one ray of hope for Crosby and Co. is that they were the beneficiaries of a blockbuster trade that brought Pascal Dupuis and Marian Hossa to the team, long after the negative SOGD was cemented. They also acquired a reliable defenseman in Hal Gill.

Hossa and Crosby have not been healthy at the same time for long, so it's impossible to tell whether that would have helped generate more shots for Pittsburgh and thereby alter the differential toward the positive.

Root like hell, Penguins fans, but know that the odds are against them.

=================

And now, to the rest of the league...

Here, for your reference, are the conference standings with the final SOGD for each team:

Eastern Conference
1. z-Montreal -2.5
2. y-Pittsburgh -3.1
3. y-Washington +3.4
4. x-New Jersey +1.3
5. x-NY Rangers +5.5
6. x-Philadelphia -3.0
7. x-Ottawa +0.2
8. x-Boston -1.9
9. Carolina +3.7
10. Buffalo +1.9
11. Florida -2.5
12. Toronto +1.7
13. NY Islanders -0.6
14. Atlanta -8.1
15. Tampa Bay +0.5


Western Conference
1. z-Detroit +10.9
2. y-San Jose +5.5
3. y-Minnesota -3.1
4. x-Anaheim -0.7
5. x-Dallas +0.6
6. x-Colorado +1.4
7. x-Calgary -0.2
8. x-Nashville -0.2
9. Edmonton -5.1
10. Chicago -0.6
11. Vancouver -1.4
12. Phoenix -0.2
13. Columbus +1.6
14. St. Louis -1.3
15. Los Angeles -3.4

Based on semi-recent history, it appears that the New York Rangers are a sleeper team in the East, and Washington might also be poised for a legitimate run.

The only potential sleeper in the West appears to be Colorado, though they may possibly be a step too slow with their aging vets in the 2nd round against (likely) Detroit, or San Jose.

All that said, don't be surprised to see both New York and Washington in the Eastern Conference Finals, and top seeds Detroit and San Jose vie for the Western Conference Crown.

Taking it another step, based on the Red Wings' goalie play and Washington perhaps being on the edge of a burnout due to their remarkable surge and relative lack of experience, perhaps we'll see the Rangers and the Sharks for the Cup.

Expounding just a shade more, with New York and San Jose dead even on the SOGD (+5.5), we could see a 7-game thriller, with the final edge belonging to the Rangers based on slightly better team save percentage (91.1% vs 90.6%).

Feel free to argue, of course, but I would wait a round or two before becoming too vehement.

#92: Littlefield's Legacy: Lynchburg Loses

(this is the first of a possible series illustrating the mismanagement of the Pittsburgh Pirates under former General Manager David Littlefield)

The Lynchburg Hillcats fell Friday night, 7-3, to the defending Carolina League Champion Frederick Keys.

The significance of one minor league team's victory over another is largely muted by the buzz of the multi-billion dollar business that is Major League Baseball.

It is dulled all the more by the fact that Lynchburg is merely the High-A affiliate of the Pittsburgh Pirates, Frederick belongs to the Baltimore Orioles organization, and both of the parent teams are years away from contending.

What is significant about this particular game (to a follower of either franchise, or any casual baseball fan wondering how deeply the troubles of the Pittsburgh Pirates run) is this:

Baltimore Orioles first-round draft pick Matt Wieters hit a pair of home runs in his professional debut, going two-for-three with a walk.

Last week, I noted how the Pittsburgh Pirates only need to be previewed by looking at their upper management and ownership.

The Pirates passed on Wieters for a relief pitcher/closer from the Clemson Tigers, Daniel Moskos. Keep in mind, this was the fourth overall pick in the 2007 draft.

The Orioles organization, in the very next draft slot, scooped Wieters up, much like an opportunistic hockey forward netting a sloppy rebound.

The dividends were as immediate as they can be.

Of course, former general manager Dave Littlefield is not the only one to blame. Their former scouting director, Ed Creech has much to do with the state of the Pirates minor league system. They drafted for signability (Wieters was represented by the ever-greedy Scott Boras), rather than doing what a team is supposed to do: take the best available player on the board.

Nevertheless, it happened on Littlefield's watch.

The plot thickens as, tonight (April 5, 2008), Moskos is scheduled to be the starter for the Hillcats.

Moskos vs. Wieters.

Something tells me we're in store for some great cosmic irony.

#91: Innocuous Screenshot

-- A very interesting screenshot from Monday night's opener.

-- A couple other random thoughts.

-- Welcoming a couple more blogs.

---Nostradamus McClouth?---

This is a silly thing to do, but everything that needs to be said about the Pirates near-collapse Monday night has been said by all the more popular Pittsburgh-based weblogs.

I thought a way I could maybe spice up the blog here a bit would be to pull a couple of screen shots that tell the story, or at least A story of all the televised games I can find. Or, at least, remember to record.

Now, many Pirate fans thought they could breathe easier once Opening Day centerfielder Nate McClouth hit a 3-run shot to right to open a 4-run lead, with the team only needing to get 6 more outs. He hit that homer on a 2-0 pitch right down main street.

Just before he stepped into the batters box, however Nate called his shot.


He's not looking at the first base coach. He's gauging the distance.

Of course, opening night jitters from Damaso Marte and Matt Capps saw to it that everything the Pirate offense did prior to the 12th inning was necessary only to prolong the game, but at least it all kept the Braves from winning a game that the Pirates came to take control of.

On a separate note, the lesson I learned on Opening Day was this:

Jose Bautista provided the Pirates ninth run in the top half of the ninth inning by laying down a suicide bunt. At the time, I thought it was kind of a classless act. If they get the run by swinging away, it's a different story, but I thought that bunt was just rubbing into the Braves' faces (meaning they were going to come out and destroy the Pirates on Wednesday and Thursday for retribution). To me, it equated to a guy kicking another guy in the unmentionables while he was down.

As it turns out, that run was necessary to prevent a "typical" Pirates collapse.

Hence, the lesson learned: "Never balk at the Pirates scoring runs, no matter how they come."

Re-reading that last sentence, I suppose that should have been obvious to me.

===

And, finally, quick shout-outs to:

Mike of Steelahs.com, welcoming him to the world of the Pittsburgh Sports blogosphere. Can't have too many Mike's here.

Also, Michael (presumably also a "Mike") and Steven of Hyzdu Headquarters. It's about time that someone named a blog after the man who broke Ken Griffey, Jr.'s home run record at Moeller High School in Cincinnati.

Go visit. Now.

#90: Order of Operations

-- A quick thought on the batting order of Adam LaRoche and Jason Bay

---Protecting Each Other---

Remember how excited Pirate fans were when Adam LaRoche was acquired last season?

It was thought that someone was finally going to provide Jason Bay with some protection in the lineup, or maybe that Bay would provide LaRoche some protection, depending on the lineup for that day.

Well, the two combined for 42 home runs (21 for each) in 1101 at-bats. They only hit 111 extra-base hits, including the homers.

At some point last year I compiled a list of how the team did based on where LaRoche and Bay were placed in the lineup. Considering the team did slightly better when only one of the two was in the lineup (winning percentage-wise), I don't think it really mattered.

Check it out.



Not that there's a lot you can draw from this. LaRoche was cold to start the season, Bay was cold to end it, so it really wasn't a situation where former manager Jim Tracy could win.

It's just a question: "If the two have more average seasons from wire to wire without the extreme slumps, it may actually help the team immensely."

We are, however, talking about the Pirates here.

#89: 2008 Pittsburgh Pirates Preview. Sort of.

-- A reasonably brief 2008 Pirate "Preview"

---Prepare for "16" and Beyond---

This preview has nothing to do with players, coaches, or statistics.

There are plenty of those around from various sources, with varying levels of sarcasm and seriousness.

I'm not going to bother.

As most Pirate fans know, the team that takes the field March 31, 2008, in Atlanta to face the Braves is not noticeably different than the one that left the field September 30th, 2007, in Pittsburgh after falling 6-5 to the St. Louis Cardinals.

I think my fanship has become so detached that I didn't even notice that the aforementioned season-ending loss gave Kip Wells another win against his former team.

I haven't even really been paying much attention at all to how Spring Training has unfolded. I catch a headline of how well (or not) one of the Pirate starters did, or which guy who wasn't going to make the team anyway hit a late home run...

I don't take much from Spring Training, anyway. You really can't. I mean, the Tampa Bay Devil Rays finished 18-8. That's the highest winning percentage in both Grapefruit and Cactus Leagues. Anyone want to put a dollar to my two that Tampa doesn't finish in last place? Or even odds they'll finish worst in the AL? Again?

I revisited last year's Pirate preview at BurghSportsGuys.com (a small-ish, but very intelligent message board for Pittsburgh fans that I highly recommend). I had a thought that I could almost substitute it for this year's preview. I'd just tweak a couple of names, make up a couple of far-fetched reasons to be optimistic, pick a few of the many reasons to doubt, and otherwise (somehow), write 2400 words on the subject.

I think my attention, instead, has been focused on the people who run this long-suffering ballclub. And there hasn't been much to watch the past few months.

Despite the obvious change in management, the tell-tale item that has remained the same is the ownership.

The only positive thing I take out of this new regime is that it's at least been more up front than the previous one. We were told early on that the Pirates would not be seeking to sign any prominent free agents. Not that the pool was very deep this offseason, anyway.

The Nutting Syndicate is still out to make as much bank as it can with as little cost to itself. It's a business, 100 percent. They continue to sell "the family experience" of PNC Park, when the fans were promised that if the Pirates got the new ballpark, they would build the city a competitive team.

This is the eighth year the Pirates will be playing at PNC Park, and it seems like it would take eight more years to build that winner (that's assuming the Syndicate would actually start trying).

They continue to throw out buzzwords like "accountability", "consistency", "atmosphere", and "(re)building process", without using words like, "contender", "playoffs", or "champions".

This year's team is not worth 2400 words.

I harbor no ill feelings toward the players, for they are all merely pawns in this, trying to play within an impossible system. I have not yet judged the new staff from the new President, Frank Coonely, through new General Manager Neal Huntington, and on to new Manager John Russell and his staff.

Russell has the hand he's been dealt. The difference he'll make versus what a manager like Joe Girardi (or even Joe Torre) would make is, in the big picture, negligible.

Huntington and his scouting staff will begin to shape their "legacy" by who they select with the 2nd overall pick in the draft, and the 32nd, for that matter. Also, he can't be afraid to shop his players around when their stock is high, especially Xavier Nady, Jason Bay, or even Adam LaRoche, as Steve Pearce is chomping at the bit to get regular playing time. And many fans are chomping at the bit to see it.

Let's be frank: this year, previewing the 2008 Pittsburgh Pirates does not involve where they will finish in the standings. A 16th consecutive losing season is virtually assured. Their actual finishing position in the National League Central standings is unimportant.

This year, people (and especially Pirates fans) should be previewing the folks who pull the strings, who have the power to turn this club around, and see if they will do things intelligently, patiently, and, most important of all, consistently.

Spending big money on a player is one thing. When that player is Matt Morris (a.k.a. 2008's version of 2007's Tony Armas), you can't help but slap your forehead (since former General Manager Dave Littlefield's, or Bob Nutting's, wasn't available). You can sign an aging, back-of-the-rotation pitcher (and not a very reliable one) for $10 million, but you can pass on Matt Weiters, a top-hitting catcher who's expected by many to be a star in this league for years because he's represented by superagent Scott Boras?

But not only that, you draft a relief pitcher instead?

Yes, I am one of many who are still sore over that.

The point of the above is that, while I feel sorry for the players who don the baseball black and gold, and while it's still too early to be throwing the brass' new employees under any buses, you have to believe that as long as Bob Nutting is the Master Puppeteer, the Pittsburgh Pirates will continue to be a laughing stock.

A fallen franchise.

A parasitic business, profiting off the misguided hopes of others.

Three years ago, I wrote another article urging Pirate fans to not "give up the ship before we set sail".

To my 27-year-old self, I say, "Man, we don't even have a boat."

(Including this sentence 957 words)

==========================================

That was the end of the "official" preview.

If you want some statistics to chew on, or my gut feelings on how the season will unfold, here are some quick hits.

- This spring training, the Pirates were outscored in the first 3 innings 44-17 (through their first 18 contests), earning a record of 6-12. In their final 11, they outscored the opposition in the first three frames, 26-14. They went 7-4.

- By my calculations, the probable Pirate rotation gave up 60 earned runs in 105 and two-thirds innings. If I calculated this right, that's an ERA of 5.11

- Their strikeout-to-walk ratio was nearly two-to-one (48K vs 26BB).

- Zach Duke did not walk a batter this spring training in 19 innings.

- The players who made the 25-man roster hit a combined 10 home runs.

- Those same players drew struck out 117 times, and drew 80 walks (almost a 3-to-2 ratio).

Take from that what you will.

Here are my annual projected standings. From the gut. Cuz all the "studying up" I did last year caused me to pick the NL Champion Rockies to finish with 101 losses, the World Series Champion Red Sox to finish 3rd in the AL East, and the Pirates to win over 70 games.

Maybe the gut will serve me better.

American League East
Yankees
Red Sox
Blue Jays
Orioles
Devil Rays

American League Central
Indians
Tigers
White Sox
Royals
Twins

American League West
Angels
Mariners
Rangers
A's


National League East
Braves
Mets
Phillies
Nationals
Marlins

National League Central
Reds
Brewers
Cubs
Cardinals
Pirates
Astros

National League West
Dodgers
Diamondbacks
Padres
Rockies
Giants

Wild Cards: Red Sox, Mets

ALDS: Indians over Red Sox, Yankees over Angels
NLDS: Mets over Reds, Dodgers over Braves

ALCS: Yankees over Indians
NLCS: Dodgers over Mets

WS: Yankees over Dodgers

Feel free to tell my gut why it's an idiot, and what it's missed during the off-season.

#88: T-minus 2 weeks...

-- Continued Thoughts on Spring Training

-- Best story of the season so far

-- A poem


---Ready or Not...(Part 2)---

With apologies to Don Long, he's pretty much doomed.

The Pittsburgh Pirates' new hitting coach isn't going to fare any better than his last three predecessors.

This probably won't come as a shock to anyone who follows baseball, let alone the Bucs. Still, I feel some comparative stats I pulled up from this Spring Training demonstrates that it's insanity to expect vastly different results with essentially the same team. Still, these numbers have quashed even the faintest hope I had as a fan that the Pirates would surprise in what will once again be a weak National League Central.

Usually, I dismiss Spring Training and its results because pitchers are working on developing new pitches and sometimes having them hammered out of the park while tweaking, and managers are fiddling around with lineups before squeezing in players who won't make the 25-man roster anyway toward game's end just to try to "make an impression". On any given day, any team can have a late surge or a late collapse and it really doesn't matter. It's learning what they can while it's still "acceptable" to lose.

Looking at the Grapefruit League standings, the Pirates and the Phillies (the latter won the NL East last year in surprising fashion) are right at the bottom. And a team that's supposed to be as bad as (or worse than) the Pirates, Tampa Bay, is something like ten games over .500 at this point.

Sure, sure. It's all meaningless on the surface.

But, in theory, managers usually play their probable rotation pitchers in the first few innings and their regular hitters in the same frame (split squad games make it a bit of a different animal). And they're all trying to develop something. The playing field is generally level in that regard, too.

But check this:

In the first 3 innings of games (through March 16th's 6-3 win over Boston), the Pirates have been outscored 44 to 17.

After 5, the margin shrinks a little bit, but they are still in the hole 61-41.

Only in "make an impression" time, do the Pirates have an edge. Innings 6 through 9, the Pirates have trumped their opponents 49-38.

Jeff Manto, the hitting coach the past two seasons, got raked over the coals a bit too much. I am not saying he was "good", but I had actually thought him to be an upgrade over Gerald Perry. But when I check the season batting averages, neither was better or worse than the other.

In Manto's two seasons with the club, the Bucs hit .263 each year.

In Perry's three-year tenure, the club averaged .262 (.259 in '05, .260 in '04, and .267 in '03...the year of the infamous Aramis-Ramirez,-Randall-Simon,-and-Kenny- Lofton-to-the-Cubs-for-Bobby-Hill-and-a-bag-of-balls trade).

Both of them, as it turns out, were better than the guy who came before, Dave Clark. Pittsburgh's BA in '02 was .244, and only slightly better in '01 at .247.

It's tough to make something formidable out of a bunch of average-to-below-average parts. You can only do so much with what ownership and management will give you.

Mr. Long had best prepare himself for more than his fair share of criticism in what lies ahead.


---Billy Crystal Leads Off---

In the absence of anything encouraging coming out of Spring Training in Bradenton, I have to smile a little each time I hear a mention of Billy Crystal batting leadoff for the Yankees (I have, therefore, been smiling a little a lot).

The smile grows a little wider with the knowledge that this 60-year old got to live a(nother) dream. It was probably a dream older than his desire to become a comedian or an actor. I don't know very many guys who, as boys, didn't want to be a baseball player at some point.

But can you imagine getting that chance at 60, long after the dream's tombstone had eroded?. And to actually catch up with a major league pitch (even a slower major league pitch) and hit a ball just foul in your only appearance?

Consider that Crystal had done what he could do to stay close to the Yankees and to baseball, since he thought he would never be part of the on-field action himself. He directed the film "61*" about Roger Maris' breaking of Babe Ruth's home run record. He was even part owner of a major league team (that ironically ended the 3-year reign of his beloved Bombers in 2001).

Then, just in time for his 60th birthday, he finally got to step up to the plate.

I know the media has a tendency to beat things to death, and it's easy for non-Yankee fans to jeer at just about anything the top-spending club in the Majors does. The special part of this to me is that this story involves a man who just about everyone has heard of -- who we see as more than just a regular guy because of his successes in life -- who was simply overjoyed just to be a part of something. He didn't need to be successful. He wasn't actively seeking attention. He was enjoying the birthday present of his life.

And his gift was the opportunity to be young again, if only for a day.


---Remembering 1960---

This is a semi-clumsy segue, but we'll try it anyway.

Crystal was 12 years old when Bill Mazeroski crushed the hearts of Yankees fans everywhere with the only Game-Seven-of-the-World-Series-ending homer in league history. I was 12 years old when Francisco Cabrera crushed the hearts of Pirates fans everywhere with a blooper to left.

The major difference here is that Crystal got to enjoy Yankee championships in each of the following two years. And many more since, whereas I am still waiting for a playoff appearance (or even a .500 season, for that matter). And I will keep doing so for the foreseeable future.

Transcending time in a way to put things in perspective, is KDKA's Dave Crawley. He wrote a poem about the 1960 World Series when he was about the same age as Crystal was in '60, and I was in '92 (he was 13).

Before the conclusion of that dramatic and statistically disparate Fall Classic (Yankees dominated like no losing team had dominated before or since), it had been, in fact, 35 years since the Bucs had won their last title.

I'm posting the below because I find it appropriate that this, 2008, will be the 29th year of the Pirates' current championship drought.

Keep the faith, Mr. Crawley. I will, too, once I remember where I left it.

(link to actual story)

ODE TO THE BUCS
By Dave Crawley (used with permission from KDKA-Radio)

'TIS A SAD AND GLOOMY DAY IN PITT.
THE BUCS TRAIL, 7-5.
AS THEY TRY TO WIN THEIR FIRST WORLD SERIES SINCE 1925.

THE PIRATES LED THE SERIES
THREE GAMES TO TWO, YOU SEE.
BUT THE YANKEES WON THE NEXT GAME,
TO TIE IT, THREE TO THREE.

PITT WON THE SERIES IN '25
AND HASN'T WON IT SINCE.
TO BROADCAST THIS IMPORTANT GAME
IS OUR OLD FRIEND, BOB PRINCE.

"IT LOOKS PRETTY BAD FOR THE PIRATES
IN THE SMOKY CITY.
IF THEY SHOULD LOSE THE SERIES NOW
IT SURE WOULD BE A PITY.

"THERE'S TWO ON, ONE OUT IN THE LAST
OF INNING NUMBER EIGHT.
AND CLEANUP HITTER ROCKY NELSON
STRIDES UP TO THE PLATE.

"NELSON HITS A FLY TO LEFT.
THE FANS ALL GIVE A SHOUT.
BUT YOGI BERRA MAKES THE CATCH,
AND NOW, TWO MEN ARE OUT.

"CLEMENTE HITS A GROUNDER,
WHICH HE BEATS OUT FOR A HIT.
AND THE NEW YORK YANKEE PITCHER
IS ABOUT TO HAVE A FIT!

"A RUN JUST SCORED. IT'S 7 TO 6.
HAL SMITH IS AT THE PLATE.
HE'D LIKE TO KNOCK THE VERY NEXT PITCH
OUT OF PENNSYLVANIA STATE.

"HERE'S A LONG, HIGH DRIVE TO DEEP LEFT FIELD!
HE REALLY TAGGED THE BALL!
SHE'S GOING, SHE'S GOING...JUST KISS IT GOODBYE!
IT'S O'ER THE LEFT FIELD WALL!"

FOR THE NEW YORK YANKEES IN THE NINTH
IT THEN WAS DO OR DIE.
BUT THE YANKEES BOUNCED RIGHT BACK
WITH TWO BIG RUNS TO TIE.

"THE BUCS WILL WIN THE BALL GAME NOW
IF THEY CAN ONLY SCORE.
IF THEY DO NOT, WE'LL HAVE TO PLAY
AN EXTRA INNING MORE.

"UP TO THE PLATE STEPS MAZEROSKI
WITH ALL HIS MIGHT AND BRAWN.
HE GIVES THAT BALL A MIGHTY WHACK!
SHE'S GOING, GOING, GONE!

"MAZEROSKI ROUNDS THE BASES,
AMID THE MIGHTY CHEERS.
THE BUCS ARE NOW WORLD CHAMPIONS.
IT'S BEEN 35 LONG YEARS!"

Copyright 2006, CBS Radio

#87: So Much to Say

-- Penguins trade for Cup run.

-- Panthers in big trouble.

-- (Long overdue) Steelers and NFL post-mortem.

-- Are you ready for some (Pirates) baseball?


---All the Right Moves?---

Hi. It's me. I'm back again. For a bit. This is the Sidney Crosby post, but just because it's my 87th installment in the blog.

Well, how 'bout them Penguins? Since my last blog entry addressing anything Penguins, they've gone a stellar 17-5-5 (11-4-4 without Crosby...), and sit just a point back of division rival New Jersey for the division (and conference) lead.

While Evgeni Malkin has surged to take the lead in the scoring race (how cool would it be to have two different Penguins win the Art Ross Trophy in consecutive years? Oh, wait. Mario Lemeiux and Jaromir Jagr won the award for seven consecutive seasons between 1995 and 2001.

I digress. Actually, I've been digressing the whole time.

General Manager Ray Shero, recipient of much initial criticism last season for trading away Noah Welch at the deadline for the aging Gary Roberts, seems to be getting some shaky marks once again from media outlets. Marian Hossa, Pascal Dupuis and Hal Gill will wear Black and Gold as we say goodbye to fan favorite Colby Armstrong and Shootout Wizard Erik Christensen. We also will be left wondering what-could-have-been as Angelo Esposito, the Pens' top draft pick this past offseason, was sent to Atlanta.

Adding Hossa gives the Penguins another top scoring threat. They'll have either the best top line in hockey once Crosby returns, or they'll be a solid 3 lines deep, however head coach Michel Therrien chooses to play it. Pascal Dupuis hasn't been a scoring force this year (15 points in 62 games), but it's only a slight dropoff from the production of either Armstrong or Christensen. And Dupuis played for Atlanta, one of the lighter scoring teams in the conference, and one of the most pourous defenses. Despite that, his plus/minus is still a workable -4.

Hal Gill is the big question mark. An even 0 in the +/- game in Toronto, will the 6'7", 250 pound defenseman be that big, Zdeno Charra-type presense the Penguins need?

Begin transition from good to potential bad...

Ty Conklin has a .933 save percentage. He made 50 saves, on the road, against the New York Islanders and their 10 power play attempts. This is called "peaking".

The Penguins, as a team, despite their awesome surge the past two months, have watched their Shots-on-Goal differential drop from -1.1 at the end of December, to -3 after last night. While the Penguins seem likely to appear in the postseason for the second year in a row, in best-of-7 series, teams with a negative differential face a daunting task. Looking at last year's playoff teams and their SOGDs, 6 teams with a negative differential made the postseason. Five, including the Penguins, lost in the first round. The sixth, Buffalo, won. But they beat another team with a negative (and worse) differential.

What has helped the Penguins compensate is that, over the same period of time, the team's save percentage (mainly courtesy of Conklin, has improved from 90.2% to 91.5%, tied for 3rd best in the league. Their scoring efficiency has also jumped from the league median 9.65% to 10.32%.

In laymen's terms, Pittsburgh is seeing the puck in their zone a lot, but they're getting gutsy efforts from the netminder. And, when they get the puck, they're scoring on more than 10% of their shots.

Hopefully, Hossa's presence and Crosby's return will mean more time spent in the offensive zone, and having a big man in Gill playing back will help with checking in the defensive zone and take pressure of Conklin.

Shero has once again met the team's needs at the trade deadline. While I think the Penguins are still a year away, they may now be able to get past the first round if the SOGD for the next month-plus can swing the other way.

====

And speaking of goalies, does anyone else get the impression that Marc-Andre Fleury may disrupt the mojo of the team now that he's back? No way do the Penguins beat the Islanders last night if he's in goal with the defensive performance and the number of penalties they had to kill. I'm not sure he's ready to face a barrage of NHL-calibur shots. Conklin has to remain the man until he has a couple of rough games.

And with a coach who likes to change lines frequently, he may not wait too long to try to re-indoctrinate Fleury to the top post.


---The Downward Spiral---

Pitt head coach Jamie Dixon must hate his life right now.

He's watched his team get decimated by injuries, he's watched his team fall into the bottom quarter of the Big East in 3-point shooting effieciency. He's seen them fall halfway down the standings in the conference, and out of the Top 25 for the first time in over 2 years.

While the Panthers are really in no danger of missing the NCAA Tournament (their RPI has still been among the league's most difficult), they are once again setting themselves up for an earlier-than-fan-accepted exit. They have consistently been a team that's gone to the Sweet 16, only to fall to some mid-major or otherwise unheard-of basketball program. Kent State, Pacific, Bradley...

I'm a believer in the law of averages in sports, but I don't think this is a case of Pitt having a slowdown now before the tournament season begins. I don't think they'll even make the Big East semi-finals at Madison Square Garden, and, right now, I don't think they'll get out of the Round of 32. Depending on the seedings, a first-round exit is conceivable.

Pitt is grooming talented freshman DeJuan Blair to be their inside presence, and it's starting to work, but this team has never missed Aaron Gray as much as now. Mike Cook was no substitute, either, but he did have experience. Missing Levance Fields for half the season hasn't helped, either. He's only now starting to get his game legs back.

Sam Young has been having a solid year, but even Michael Jordan needed players around him to be successful.

The Panthers could catch fire, win their last four games and put up a respectable 23 wins this season and be a team nobody wants to play when the Big East Tournament starts, but a lot of would have to go right.

Pitt does not seem like they're playing hard right now. They're taking bad shots, playing poor defense (for Pitt standards...allowing 8 out of their last 10 opponents to score more than 60), losing leads, and giving too many fouls.

Yes, coach Dixon has his work cut out for him over the next two weeks. One would hope that Sam Young chooses to stay at Pitt for his senior year, since it seems like it's already time to start looking forward to 2008-2009.



---(Quick) NFL Wrap---

Holey Offensive Line, Batman!

Ben Roethlisberger didn't stand a chance against Jacksonville. Not with his line play (especially that), and not with the conservative play-calling at the end...when it was the aggressive stuff that got the Steelers back into the game to begin with.

Now, the Steelers and their salary cap are choked up with Kendall Simmons and Max Starks, where their best player, Alan Faneca, will probably traipse off to Arizona in the offseason to rejoin coaches Ken Whisenhunt and Russ Grimm. Sean Mahan is currently still in line to be the starting center, whom FootballOutsiders.com reportedly ranked as 31st in the league (only one worse...and I'm not sure who that is).

I've also been told that this year's draft is not going to be heavy for either guards or centers. That means that Pittsburgh is going to have to invest in another free agent. Refer to salary cap comment. And Ben figures to make bank in his new contract. The signs are not good. Pittsburgh may have to arrange a rarely-done trade to get what they need. Ben cannot take another almost-50 sack season. Willie Parker cannot run behind a line as shoddy as the one he's had. (Yes, he was the league's leading rusher when he got hurt, but he also had a LOT more attempts than the next nearest guy).

Things aren't looking so good on that front, and the front 7 on the other side of the ball isn't getting any younger. Still, offensive line has to be the top priority. Personnel director Kevin Colbert has let it slip for too long.

======

The sweetest thing about being wrong about the Patriots going 19-0 like I'd said since...October, I think?

It's not that they blew it in the final game of the year. It's that they blew it in the final 35 seconds of the year. Yeah, I'm no fan of New York teams, but seriously, Bill Belicheck was about to be the 2nd coach ever to win 4 Superbowl rings, Chuck Noll being the only other one.

And for the record, I don't think Tom Brady was ever hurt prior to the game.

Does anyone have a video of Bob Kraft's reaction to losing XLII? Like, when Plaxico Burress was never more open in his life? I might pay you for such a vid. Might. Be careful. I'm broke.

So, to frequent commenter (and Steeltown Angel) karri, I say, with pride, "Yes. I was wrong about New England."

And, finally: Yoi and Double Yoi! Rest in Peace, Myron Cope. (January 23, 1929 - February 27, 2008)


---Ready or Not...(Part 1)---

The Pirates are, as of this writing, probably wrapping up their annual exhibition against the Lancers of Manatee Community College in Bradenton, Florida. Tomorrow, they'll play the Philadelphia Phillies for the first "official" Spring Training game. Just a little over a month until the season opens in Atlanta, Georgia.

So much is going on. But just not with the Pirates.

All offseason, we've heard that there weren't going to be a lot of major moves made. That the front office was planning to come back with the same team that brought up the rear of the National League central.

That makes some sense, since you've: a) done a major front-office overhaul; and b) really can't trade anybody high right now. Best for the new head men, with their own eyes and their own interests invested, see what they have at the beginning and move from there.

It's going to take time, and more than a little luck to get the Pirates turned around. We know that.

I just wish the Pirate brass would say that. The way they're trying to spin it makes it seem like they think we have a contender, or that we're only a few pieces shy of that contender...to the point where Bob Nutting and Company are not opposed to boosting the payroll to a whopping $50 million if things fall into place.

Come on. We know the drill. The Bucs are so set up to fail this season there will be no reason to bump the payroll. Just the way they like it. Just the way they want it. And we'll still be going through the turnstiles. Heck, I'll be at the home opener, hating against the Cubs, with frequent commenter (and Steeltown Angel) Emma, and, supposedly, some others from the tight-knit Pittsburgh blogosphere.

I'm feeding the pig.

Still, Nutting has been doing more talking this offseason than I think any of us thought he'd ever do at any time. I detect a smokescreen. And that's pretty easy to do when you're really not allowed to see what's happening underneath the surface.

That paragraph made no sense, but I'm too lazy to delete it.

Just like I've been remiss in updating my little corner of Al Gore's Internet.

More to come...hopefully sooner rather than later... I've got oodles of opinions on various facets of the Pirates.

===

I am ashamed to say that I did not update my blog when this happened...

On the day of January 8, 2008, my boss at the radio station and I went to Pittsburgh Pirates Radio Network Affiliate Day at 7 Springs Mountain Resort. We packed up the skis and gear and headed out. It was friggin 65 degrees on the mountain. Ridiculous.

Anyway, we got free skiing, free bowling, free mini-golf...and free something else. Then, later, there was a free dinner for the attendees in one of the various conference rooms. I met Lanny Frattere for the first time, as well as Steve Blass. I ate dinner at a table with Greg Brown and the Program Director of the Pirates Radio Network's flagship station. Good times. Brown is probably the nicest guy I've ever met in the industry. This allows me to forgive some of the times I get irritated by tangent-filled game-calling.

Anyway, while I'm enjoying something called "Seafood Orzo" or something like that, I am introduced to one more person.

I shook hands with Bob Nutting.

The professional in me allowed a nod, a half-smile, a firm shake, and a polite, "Mr. Nutting." That still didn't keep the Pirate fan within me from railing against my consciousness, screaming, "It's the Devil!"

I can only imagine the legal trouble I'd be in had the Pirate fan prevailed. There wasn't ample time for any kind of discussion, as he had come in to greet the assembled radio folks, then go do whatever penny-saving thing was next on the agenda. That didn't stop me from trying to coerce folks at that table with me to say something, anything that was derogatory toward the top man.

I'll leave you with this thought, which I found to be pretty true. Greg Brown told me that folks are telling him that the Pirates are going to be worse this year than last year. He said, "It's the same team". He said that he doesn't expect them to be world-beaters, but another 3-5 wins with the experience of the younger players and a return to form from Jason Bay, an earlier start from Adam Laroche is certainly not outside the realm of possibility.

I didn't have it in me to talk about the potential for injuries to our starting pitchers that might make it possible to stay in games to the later frames.

Until next time...