Steeltown Sports

#243: Pirate Haiku

2012-02-18T10:38:00.001-05:00

---SSL Broadcast #81---

I don't have a lot of time to write this, but (for some reason) I wanted to get this episode up before I got busy. Just a little poem on the recent acquisition by the Pittsburgh Pirates:

A.J. Burnett deal:
There was better use for cash,
But could have been worse.

Deep, huh?.

On the latest episode:

- Statement game today for Pens against Flyers.

- Pitt basketball just statistically inferior.

- Steelers have not yet committed fully to ditching Hines Ward.

- Pirates report to camp.

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#242: Ward's Farewell

2012-02-11T11:11:00.001-05:00

---SSL Broadcast #80---

14 seasons. 1000 receptions. 12,083 yards. 7 missed regular season games. Countless blocks. 1 rule nicknamed after him.

A report has recently come out saying that Hines Ward's career as a Pittsburgh Steeler is over.

As heartbroken as this may leave the black and gold faithful, letting Ward go is the right move.

For one, the Steelers need to free up salary cap space. Despite all the recent restructuring of contracts (e.g. Ben Roethlisberger, James Harrison), the team is still well over. The Super Bowl XL MVP is also on his final legs, and, while he was still effective at times in a limited role last season, it is better to cut ties when he still has a little "football" left in him, rather than keep him until he's completely out (to the detriment of the team).

On a related note, Pittsburgh's front office needs to do what it can to retain the services of its young and improving receiving corps. Mike Wallace, Antonio Brown, and Emmanuel Sanders represents the next chapter of Steeler football. Over the last couple of decades, the Steelers have been adept at being progressive, rather than hanging on to the past (letting Joey Porter go, for example).

Ward's journey is not unique. Even Franco Harris spent a year in Seattle after an established Pittsburgh career. Wherever next season finds #86, everyone knows he's a Steeler for life.

On the most recent show:

- Steelers have a new offensive Coordinator.

- Pens get a player back just as they lose another as the injury-go-round continues.

- Pirates thinking about making a move for aging pitcher A.J. Burnett.

- Panthers basketball team is just an average to slightly-above-average squad, even with Tray Woodall.

- Steeltown Mike finishes the NFL season 21-23-1 (24-25-1 in two seasons) after missing his Super Bowl pick. And he couldn't care less. The Patriots lost and Chuck Noll still stands alone.

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#241: Giants Fan for a(nother) Day

2012-02-04T10:53:00.001-05:00

---SSL Broadcast #79---

My elation at Plaxico Burress catching the game-winning touchdown pass from Eli Manning is surpassed only by Santonio Holmes' toe-tap the following year.

Pittsburgh folk generally don't cheer on teams from the Big Apple. Pittsburgh fans generally have no warm feelings for the overspending Yankees or the former NL East rival Mets. The Rangers and Islanders also don't induce warm and fuzzy feelings. The best thing about the Jets is western PA native Joe Namath.

But the bulk of Steeler Nation, for reasons that have been enumerated on this blog, are cheering for Eli Manning to surpass big brother Peyton and grab a second championship ring. Mainly because a Giants victory would come at the expense of the hated New England Patriots.

Despite having sub-standard defensive statistics, the Patriots are about a field goal favorite to win their 4th Super Bowl, all under the Belichick/Brady era. The three previous championships, however, will forever be underneath the shroud of Spygate. We will never know how much videotaping the opposing team's signals affected those seasons and Super Bowls.

If anything, here's hoping that karma -insofar as on-the-field success- continues to bite the legacy of the Patriot organization all the way up the chain to owner Bob Kraft.

That said, listen to this week's show to find out who I pick to win it all.

On the most recent show:

- Super Bowl thoughts with producer Jerome Shell.

- Pens and Steelers representatives all contribute in their respective All-Star games.

- Pirates sign a couple of relief pitchers, which is par for the Pirates' course.

- Panthers roaring back, but likely not enough to make the field of 68.

- Will I finish the year with a winning record on NFL picks courtesy of the Big Game for the second straight year? (21-22-1 entering the game).

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#240: Woodall the Missing Link?

2012-02-01T20:40:00.000-05:00

---SSL Broadcast #78---

The Point Guard is all-important in a Jamie Dixon-led team.

Tray Woodall (formerly known as Travon) has played in 12 of the Pitt Panthers' 23 games. Their record: 9-3.

Without Woodall in the line-up: 5-6.

Woodall is the cog that's been missing in Dixon's machine, and now that he's got his game legs back after recovering from groin and abdominal injuries, has been the difference.

Woodall has drawn some criticism by some who point out that he was the sixth man on his high school basketball team, but it's clear that, even on a team with Ashton Gibbs and Nasir Robinson, Woodall is this squad's first man, right down to his jersey number. Ball distribution and finding that open man or making that extra pass relies on Number 1.

Pitt is still only 3-7 in conference play, and is still a long shot to even make the NCAA tournament, but a strong finish in the regular season and a formidable showing in the Big East Tournament may give them some extra consideration for a #15 or #14 seed.

The thing that may ultimately factor in is if the Big East, which appears to be weaker top-to-bottom than in recent years, will carry the day on its reputation.

One thing that's certain - whether the Big East is weaker this year or not - is that the Panthers are a much stronger team with Tray Woodall running the floor.

On the most recent show:

- Paterno's legacy.

- Arians didn't retire, after all.

- A quick check of NHL All-Star Break numbers, particularly Shots on Goal Differential.

- A bit of Pro Bowl talk.

- According to "prophecy", I went 1-1 on Championship Sunday on my NFL Playoff Picks (21-22-1 overall). The Super Bowl will once again be the decider.

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#239: Fighting Opportunity

2012-01-21T11:26:00.000-05:00

---SSL Broadcast #77---

The Penguins have fought their way back into a playoff spot after briefly being on the outside looking in.

Is it a coincidence that their recent string of wins is connected to their recent string of first period fights?.

Yes.

There's some buzz (I hope there's not too much) that the Penguins current five-game winning streak and solid play for six is because the Pens have been getting their spark from fights.

In the six contests dating back to (and including) their 1-0 loss in Washington to the Capitals, the Penguins have been involved seven total fights, one in the first period of each game. Some want to argue that the Pens are getting a spark from the early game fisticuffs. They're just the ones who think that fighting is the heart and soul of hockey. But it isn't the heart and soul of winning hockey.

During their winning streak, the Pens have outshot their opponents by an average of 13.6 shots per game, raising their league-leading shots-on-goal-differential to a near-dominant +7.9. The team hasn't been outshot since December 20 against the Blackhawks (38-28).

The biggest difference has been the play of Marc-Andre Fleury over that span. Including the 1-0 loss to Washington, Fleury has posted a .928 save percentage (and his performances against Tampa Bay and especially Montreal weren't exactly sterling).

Fighting isn't ancillary to the Pens success in any way. It's a sideshow. A smoke screen for those who are drawn to the pugilistic side of the sport.

The team's faith in coach Dan Bylsma's puck-possession system and a superior effort from their netminder have shaped their success, and it will continue to keep them ahead of the pack despite all the injuries that have plagued the team.

On the most recent show:

- Steelers making headlines over the last 48 hours.

- Panthers need Woodall sooner rather than later (if they can't medical-redshirt him).

- Pirates avoid arbitration with all arbitration-eligible pitchers.

- Championship Sunday approacheth.

- As predicted, I went 1-3 on my NFL Playoff Picks (20-21-1 overall). This will likely come down to the Super Bowl. Again.

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#238: Rivalry Aside

2012-01-18T01:14:00.002-05:00

---SSL Broadcast #76---

I'm a little late in uploading this show. Apoligies.

However, it has allowed the NFL Divisional round of the playoffs to be completed, whereas if I would have uploaded this at my normal "Saturday at about 11AM" time, I wouldn't be able to put this little blurb together.

I have been seeing an inordinate about of Steeler fans hunkering down, getting ready to swallow their bile and root on the New England Patriots this coming weekend against the Baltimore Ravens.

Are you kidding me?

I am prepared to give you some reasons as to why Steeler fans should, in fact, be rooting on the Ravens this weekend.

1) History.

The sooner the New England Patriots are eliminated, the more comfortable fans of the 70's Steelers, especially, can rest more easily. One more Super Bowl win by quarterback Tom Brady, and he will equal the number of championships won by Steeler QB Terry Bradshaw and Pittsburgh-area native Joe Montana. Brady has no roots to this area. Worse, a Patriot win gives head coach Bill Belichick -his- fourth ring as a head coach, too, equaling only "The Emperor" Chuck Noll. This is not acceptable. Even if San Francisco would capture its 6th ring, tying Pittsburgh, that's a record that can be reclaimed in future seasons. Bradshaw will never play again. Noll will never coach again. Steeler fans need to root against New England winning the Super Bowl under any circumstance until Belichick and Brady are no longer in their organization.

2) AFC North Supremacy.

Yes, it hurts when a divisional opponent beats you twice in a season. That said, I have never understood the logic of using that as a reason to root against that team. Especially against a team that your own team defeated. A victory by the Ravens against the Patriots would justify the way the regular season fell out. It would be disappointing to watch Baltimore fold to New England as a Steeler fan, thinking, "Well, the Steelers beat the Patriots this year, why couldn't they?" And, also, it would keep the AFC North as the "king" of the conference...and put a bigger target on Baltimore's back next year.

3) Probable Good-Bye to Ray and Reed.

If the Baltimore Ravens advance, and then defeat either San Francisco or New York in Super Bowl XLVI, then maybe, just maybe, Ray Lewis and Ed Reed, longtime thorns in the side of the Steelers, will take the opportunity to wade into the sunset. Granted, neither player is in the prime of his life (a healthy Haloti Ngata is Steeler public enemy #1 now), but those two would still be hard to replace. If the Ravens are vanquished Sunday, they might be convince to give it another season. Or two.

I'm not suggesting it's easy to pull for Baltimore. In fact, there's not a dog left in the entire playoffs left that I like. In this case, I am setting the rivalry aside and wishing them well in Foxboro on Sunday. It will only give me more reason to dislike them next fall.

On the most recent show:

- Steelers gameplan sound versus Denver. Execution of secondary...not so much.

- Pens due to heat up.

- Panthers football and basketball teams bottom out.

- Long-time Pirate joins division rival.

- Actually went 3-1 on my NFL Playoff Picks (19-18-1 overall).

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#237: Rolling the Dice

2012-01-07T11:41:00.000-05:00

---SSL Broadcast #75---

Coaching hindsight is generally 20/20. Sports fans inevitably believe they have this power in advance.

Case in point, last Sunday in Cleveland, Steelers Head Coach Mike Tomlin goes off script a bit and elects to decline a holding penalty after a 3rd and 10 play for the Browns. They were in long field goal range, but with a trecherous lake wind reportedly "at their backs."

Cleveland ends up nailing the 49-yarder to trim Pittsburgh's lead to 13-9.

Conventional wisdom says that you back a team, any team, out of field goal range if you are able. But if so-called "conventional wisdom" dictated everything, teams wouldn't really need coaches.

The short: if Phil Dawson misses the kick, the Steelers start at their own 39 yard line. If they decline the penalty, there's a fair possibility that Cleveland makes that yardage back, anyway, perhaps more than enough for a first down allowing the drive to continue. Again, if the long field goal (which wasn't a gimme for anyone), Tomlin looks like a genius.

The hindsight experts will tell you that the assessed penalty would have resulted in a punt preserving a full touchdown lead. They'll omit that the punt could have pinned the Steelers inside the 10 (as easily as it could have rolled for a touchback) and perhaps resulted in a pick-6/fumble/safety.

The very short: Tomlin rolled the dice and lost.

If Steeler fans want to take issue with Tomlin, how about leaving defensive starters in for the final plays after the final score came down from Cincinnati that the game was no longer relavent.

Now that it's the playoffs, the opposition will be better, so rolling the dice on the road against anyone they face should not be an option unless the straits are dire. This week, Tomlin will need to heed "conventional wisdom," else the Steelers road trip will come to a premature end.

On today's show:

- Quick breakdown and picks for NFL's Wild Card Weekend.

- Fleury letting Pens down.

- Both Pitt Panthers teams' seasons may be over very soon.

- Deja vu. 1-1 again on my NFL Picks (16-17-1 overall for the regular season).

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#236: Year in Review - 2011

2011-12-31T10:37:00.000-05:00

---SSL Broadcast #74---

As one year dies and another is born, let's take a quick look at some of the stories in Pittsburgh-area sports.

January: The Steelers march through the playoffs, riding home field advantage to their eighth Super Bowl appearance in franchise history and third in six years. The Penguins lose their captain, Sidney Crosby, for what would end up being the rest of the regular season and playoffs.

February: The Steelers fall to Green Bay in Super Bowl XLV, thanks mostly to losing the turnover battle three-to-none. Battle lines are drawn in the NFL Labor dispute. The NHL, and especially the Pittsburgh Penguins and the New York Islanders, embarrass themselves in a major brawl that turns attention to trying to fix the out-of-control fighting in hockey.

March: The Pitt Panthers go oh-fer in the Big East Tournament, then lose in the Big Dance to Butler in a foul-shooting fiasco. The city of Pittsburgh welcomes its newest professional team, the Pittsburgh Power, of the arena football league. Pens forward Matt Cooke is suspended for a dirty hit for what turns out to be the rest of the season.

April: The Penguins are eliminated in a 7-game thriller by the Tampa Bay Lightning, blowing a 3-1 series lead in the process. UConn wins the NCAA tournament as Butler comes up short for the second year in a row. The Pirates start the year off in promising fashion, thanks mostly to their pitching.

May: Steelers running back Rashard Mendenhall makes some controversion comments on his Twitter account regarding the killing of Osama bin Laden. Penguin fans wait to find out of their team will bring back Jaromir Jagr. We prepared for the Rapture (Part One).

June: The Boston Bruins win the Stanley Cup. The Dallas Mavericks win the NBA title. Closer to home, the Pirates are putting forth a consistent effort and starting to draw fans. The wife of injured catcher Chris Snyder is attacked at a gas station. Sidney Crosby is cleared to begin off-season workouts. The Steelers take another look at wide receiver Plaxico Burress after his release from prison.

July: The Pirates reach first place in July, and ultimately send three players to the All-Star game (two participate). Then, the "safe call" in Atlanta begins their demise. The Pittsburgh Power, in its inaugural season, is in shape to qualify for the playoffs. The NFL ends its lockout, but not before Steelers linebacker James Harrison airs some dirty laundry in a magazine.

August: The Steelers lock up key parts of their defense. The Pirates draft and sign their top two draft picks while the major league club enters free-fall. The Pitt Panthers and West Virginia Mountaineers are picked to finish as the top two teams in the Big East in the preseason polls.

September: Pitt football introduces its "high-octane" offense. Super Bowl XL referee Bill Leavy officiates the Steelers/Seahawks game at Heinz Field, causing Seattle fans (and Pittsburgh haters) continue to spout their ignorance of football. Pirates fall completely flat and seal their 19th consecutive losing season. The Civic Arena approaches demolition. The Pitt Panthers (along with the Syracuse Orange) prepare to depart from the Big East to the ACC.

October: The St. Louis Cardinals won the World Series in seven games after overcoming two late-inning deficits in Game 6. The West Virginia Mountaineers prepare to depart for the Big 12 conference, then sues (and is sued by) the Big East Conference. Sidney Crosby finally cleared for contact drills.

November: Scandal rocks Penn State as former assistant football coach Jerry Sandusky is indicted on multiple child sex abuse charges, and long-time head coach Joe Paterno is fired in the fallout. The Steelers are swept by the Ravens, setting the stage for the rest of the year. Sidney Crosby returns to the Penguins line-up, scoring twice in his return. Pitt basketball loses to Long Beach state, snapping a 58-game non-conference winning streak at the Petersen Events Center.

December: After just 7 games, Sidney Crosby is off the ice again with post-concussion symptoms. The Pirates sign third baseman Casey McGehee as insurance for Pedro Alvarez. Pitt head coach Todd Graham bolts for Arizona State - the Panthers then hire Paul Chryst, formerly offensive coordinator at Wisconsin.

As a sports broadcaster, I can only hope that 2012 has as many ups and downs. As a human being, I could deal with fewer downs.

Happy New Year to Allah Yinz (you didn't know that was Allah's last name, did you?)!

On today's show:

- Steelers have one more chance to "steel" the division.

- Penguins lead the NHL in a key statistic.

- WVU needs to focus on shutting down Clemson's RB Andre Ellington.

- Deja vu. 1-1 again on my NFL Picks (15-16-1 overall).

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#235: All I Want for Christmas 2011

2011-12-24T10:34:00.001-05:00

---SSL Broadcast #73---

I'll admit, my list is a pretty tall order this year.

For the Steelers:

- 1 Healthy Franchise Quarterback for the playoff run
- 2 More Regular season Wins
- 1 Baltimore Ravens loss
- 1 New England Patriots loss
- 0 more injuries/suspensions to key players

Failing all that - I'll settle for one New England Patriots playoff loss

For the Penguins:

- 1 Healthy, resilient and symptom-free Captain
- 1 conistent "franchise" goalie, esp. vs. Cup-contenders

For the Pirates:

- (I ask for this every year) An ownership group that recognizes that money needs to be spent on quality starting pitching, then acts on that when the players are available, overpaying if necessary.

For the Pitt Panthers:

- Stability at the head coaching position, and failing that, instability at the athletic director position

For the West Virginia Mountaineers:

- A convicing win against the Clemson Tigers in the Orange Bowl

For myself:

- The ability to correctly pick NFL games against the spread with high consistency.

Also on today's show:

- Steelers miss out on a chance to control their own destiny

- Penguins on a 3-game roll entering the Christmas break

- Pitt gets its 4th head coach in the last year and a half.

- Yet another 1-1 week on myNFL Picks (14-15-1 overall).

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#234: Dangerous Precedent

2011-12-17T11:02:00.001-05:00

---SSL Broadcast #72---

For the first time, I think that Pittsburgh Steelers linebacker James Harrison is a visionary.

Last year, football fans, including Steeler fans, had a laugh with Harrison threatening to retire because of fines levied against him last October. At the time, he said, "I'm going to sit down and have a serious conversation with my coach tomorrow and see if I can actually play by NFL rules and still be effective. If not, I may have to give up playing football."

Now, a little over a year later, the National Football League may drive him to it.

This week, Harrison was suspended for one game without pay for his helmet-to-helmet hit on Cleveland Browns quarterback Colt McCoy. The suspension means he will miss the Monday Night Football showdown between his 10-3 Steelers, and the 10-3 San Francisco 49ers.

On last week's show, I agreed with the penalty being assessed, but didn't think a fine should be levelled. A suspension for that hit never crossed my mind.

As of this writing, you can still find video of the play in question on YouTube and can watch it for yourself and judge if you see the same two things I do.

1) Harrison pulls up considerably.

2) The hardest contact is actually done by Harrison's arms, shoving McCoy to the turf.

In no way, shape or form was this a reckless/dirty/cheap hit. Because it was helmet-to-helmet, it was going to draw a penalty. I reiterate that I am not arguing that.

To say that this is along the lines of, say, either of his hits in last year's game between these two teams at Heinz Field that saw Joshua Cribbs and Mohammad Massaquoi leave the game (that resulted in the fines that led Harrison to consider retirement) is asinine.

By levelling this punishment for this offense, what Roger Goodell and his underling/disciplinarians (who refused to even hear an appeal, by the way) have done is pretty much said this: If James Harrison is involved in any helmet-to-helmet contact, he will be suspended, regardless of circumstance.

If that's the case, then it might be said that Harrison (unlike several quarterbacks - Colt McCoy excluded) saw it coming all along.

Also on today's show:

- Panthers football head coach Todd Graham bolts for Arizona State.

- Sidney Crosby, when he's ready again, needs to come back to stay.

- The Pirates bring a third baseman on board. Do they really need him, even as insurance?

- After a bogus pass interference call on Adam "Pacman" Jones that set up Houston's winning touchdown, it's another 1-1 week on the NFL Picks front (13-14-1 overall).

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#233: The President's Team: A Review

2011-12-10T11:30:00.000-05:00

---SSL Broadcast #71---

Attention on deck.

I recently had the pleasure of reviewing a copy of the book The President's Team: The 1963 Army-Navy Game & The Assassination of JFK.

It is a must-read for anyone who is at once a history buff and an afecianado of collegiate football, or who is a past, current, or future member of the United States Naval Academy.

Even if neither of those specifically apply to you, I still recommend it.

In his preface, author Michael Connelly confesses that he had only intended to shape this work to frame the two-week period beginning with the assassination of President John Fitzgerald Kennedy and ending with the Army-Navy game, which was played with the blessing (or, perhaps, insistance) of the fallen leader's family.

Through his research and the interviews he conducted, however, Connelly discovered a much more involved story, from multiple angles.

This work first details Kennedy's own involvement with the United States Navy and his heroism during World War II, his family's traditional games of touch football in New England (as well as the family's history in politics), then flashes forward to his election to the presidency in 1960.

At that time, the football team that represented the brigade boasted its first Heisman Trophy winner in Joe Bellino, who led the Midshipmen to their second win in as many years against the archrival Cadets of Army.

From there, Connelly interweaves the stories of the President with his favorite collegiate team, including Kennedy meeting with Bellino and some of his teammates while he was President-Elect.

The 1961 season is a blur in the scope of the book, but it's given enough of a mention to help flesh out Navy's fiery head coach Wayne Hardin, cover their third straight win over Army, and identify a certain "plebe" who was destined for great things of his own beginning in 1962. That plebe's name was Roger Staubach.

From there, Connelly describes in riveting detail how Staubach rose to become Navy's starter early in his sophomore year and how he took the sports world by storm. He also deftly profiles the teammates that helped make Staubach even greater.

Every so often, Connelly leaves the team briefly to pen a parallel storyline, relating what was happening in the world with regard to Kennedy's Presidency, and how he was still keeping an eye on the Academy and finding time to attend the Army-Navy games.

Naturally, most of the book focuses on the 1963 season, which was winding down when Kennedy was killed in Dallas, Texas.

Connelly's choice to start the story in 1960 helps to maximize the emotional impact on the Midshipmen when their focus was abruptly torn away from prepping for their clash with Army.

Connelly chronicles the classic Army-Navy game that took place two weeks after its originally scheduled date, and follows that up with Navy's attempt to secure a national title.

A couple of wonderful elements are included in the book. There are two sections with an array of black and white photographs of the people involved, and another section that gives the current whereabouts (as of the book's publication) of the players who were on the 1963 team.

I have a couple of criticisms, of course. One is that while the editors did well to ensure the book was virtually free of any ugly punctuation and grammatical errors, there were some facts that were needlessly repeated, some in close proximity to each other.

The second is that the book's subtitle: "The 1963 Army-Navy Game and the Assassination of JFK" only makes up a portion of the book. That was the intial scope of the project, as Connelly mentions in his preface, but the book is far more than that.

Something more along the lines of "The Story of Navy Football During JFK's Administration" would have been more accurate.

Still, if the subtitle as it stands is enough to get you to crack the cover, the "bonus coverage" is a terrific (and necessary) surprise.

The President's Team is available at major booksellers, or online at Amazon.com.

Mr. Connelly is my guest on this edition of "Steeltown Sports Live."

Also on today's show:

- A couple of wins against Ohio opponents in less than a week for the Steelers.

- Sidney Crosby on ice...or rather, off ice...I mean... whatever...

- WVU wins the Big East, and Pitt still makes a bowl game.

- The Pirates make some moves at the Winter Meetings, but nothing that's going to improve the team.

- The pattern continues on the NFL Picks after another 1-1 week (12-13-1 overall).

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#232: Light Work Ahead for Steelers

2011-12-03T10:44:00.001-05:00

---SSL Broadcast #70---

If the Steelers make the 2011 NFL Playoff field, whether or not they're able to win the AFC North, they're not playing a favorable warm-up schedule.

On one hand, this could be a good thing in order to get healthy; with a weaker schedule down the stretch, it will be less tempting to play the major players when a backup could be just as effective.

On the other hand, entering the playoffs after a relatively light schedule could be like playing the card game "War," then finding yourself in the finals of a poker tournament.

Cincinnati, this week's opponent, is certainly no pushover this season, but being at Heinz Field should help them get through this one. Cleveland twice and the St. Louis Rams at home should all be wins (if they're not, I will be forced to seriously question head coach Mike Tomlin's preparations). As for the currently 9-2 San Francisco 49ers, by the time that game rolls around, the 9ers will have wrapped up the NFC West and, likely, the number two seed in the NFC playoffs. They will have less to play for than Pittsburgh.

The Steelers need this schedule to have a chance to overtake Baltimore and win the the AFC North and, possibly, the top overall seed in the AFC. The light end-of-the-regular-season schedule - plus a bye week - could result in a shock once they would host their first opponent in this hypothetical situation.

Nothing short of convincing victories over the remaining slate of opponents should give Steeler fans confidence heading into the postseason.

On today's show:

- Lots of college football talk, particularly possible solutions (or starts of solutions) to the college postseason system.

- The Penguins remain in the top 10 most valuable franchises in the league.

- Maybe a Pitt loss to Syracuse wouldn't be all that terrible.

- A mistake, stating that Cincinnati and Louisville are playing today. As I write this, let me say they're not.

- Back to the usual on the NFL Picks after a 1-1 week last time out (11-12-1 overall).

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#231: Back End of the Backyard Brawl

2011-11-26T10:32:00.001-05:00

---SSL Broadcast #69---

This is the way the brawl ends.
This is the way the brawl ends.
This is the way the brawl ends.
Not with a bang, but a whimper.

Borrowing from poet T.S. Eliot was probably not the way you expect a blog entry to open, but there you have it.

Last night's Backyard Brawl (the annual collegiate football game played between the Pitt Panthers and West Virginia Mountaineers) was likely the last such game for at least a few years.

While the Mountaineers prevailed 21-20 in comeback fashion, the frustrating way the entire game played out only proved to further the argument that the Big East has no business getting an automatic bid for a BCS Bowl. Points were scored mainly by virtue of the other team's miscue, rather than by positive plays made by each team's offense.

And now, with Pitt departing for the Atlantic Coast Conference and West Virginia becoming a member of the Big 12, the clash between the two teams will have to occur in early season play where victory and defeat don't mean quite as much, and that's even if the schools are able to schedule the game at all.

But, perhaps after the teams get beaten up and down the field by their new respective conference opponents, they'll willingly make the time to renew the rivalry on an annual basis. For as T.S. Eliot also observed:

In a minute there is time
For decisions and revisions which a minute will reverse.

On today's show:

- Jason Cole from Yahoo! Sports talks AFC North jockeying and other relevant league issues.

- Sidney Crosby finally returns to the ice.

- Steelers may not have as easy a time as folks think.

- Pirates sign a shortstop.

- It was too good to last: Mike goes 0-1-1 in last week's NFL picks (10-11-1 overall).

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#230: Taking More Than You Give is OK

2011-11-19T10:38:00.001-05:00

---SSL Broadcast #68---

With the Christmas season coming up (and some would argue it's already been here awhile...), it's time to talk about taking more than you give. When you're a hockey team.

Now that the 2011-2012 NHL season is about a quarter of the way done, it's time to take a look at the almighty Shots-On-Goal Differential (SOGD) statistic and try to determine which teams are going to stay near the top, which teams are going to surge to the top, and which teams are going to splatter against the statistical plexiglass.

Entering today's play (November 19, 2011), none of the teams in first place of their respective divisions are in the top 6 in SOGD. Current Central Division leader Chicago is 7th with a +4.2.

For those of you who don't have a clue what this is about, Shots on Goal Differential is calculated by taking the average number of shots taken in a game (in Chicago's case, they have averaged 33.3 shots per game) and subtracting the number of shots given up (Chicago gives up 29.1). By season's end, most playoff teams have a positive SOGD, and those that don't often find themselves exiting the playoffs early. Read this article to see how the playoff teams shaped up. The only "rule" for winning the Stanley Cup is that a team have a positive SOGD at season's end. Only two teams since 1991 have won the Cup with a negative SOGD (the '91 and '09 Pittsburgh Penguins), and both had extenuating circumstances. In the case of the first team, they picked up face-off wizard Ron Francis and bruising defenseman Ulf Samuelsson at the trade deadline after their SOGD number was well in the negative (meaning there wasn't enough time for their presence to turn the number to a positive). In the latter instance, coach Michel Therrien was replaced with 3 months to go in the season by Dan Bylsma, who worked at incorporating a puck possession system. Again, not enough time in the season for the statistic to reverse.

This year's Penguins are the best team in the Eastern Conference in SOGD (and this is without captain Sidney Crosby) at +5.4. Next best in the conference, the surging (and defending Stanley Cup champion) Boston Bruins with +4.2. Detroit is the best overall with +8.6, which is par for the course for them, so they will be surging sooner rather than later. Also set to rise from the depths are Montreal (+4.1), Colorado (+4.3), and - believe it or not - Columbus (+2.8) if they can just get some average goaltending.

The biggest mirage in the pack is the first place Minnesota Wild. They have the 3rd worst SOGD in the league at -6.1, but are being bailed out by a save percentage around 94%. This will not hold. Also, the Dallas Stars and Nashville Predators, who are not only in second place in their respective divisions, but are also the only two teams worse than Minnesota in SOGD (-7.2 and -7.4, respectively) figure to fall out of their perches soon.

So, puck shooters, this holiday season (and beyond), it's all about take, take, take.

On today's show:

- My producer (and Penn State alumnus) Jerome Shell joins in with his experience from last Saturday's game at Happy Valley.

- Steelers sit atop the AFC North heading into the bye week.

- Pitt basketball - defense needs a bunch of work.

- Pirates possibly pursing a championship-winning shortstop.

- For the second straight week, Mike goes 2-0 in his NFL picks last week (10-10 overall), including pegging the Steelers/Bengals score.

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#229: Injustice Amidst Injustice

2011-11-12T10:50:00.001-05:00

---SSL Broadcast #67---

As you can imagine, the focus of today's broadcast was regarding the sex-abuse scandal at Penn State University, which is now entering its second week (or 14th year, depending on your point of view).

For those of you living in a cave, here's the "Reader's Digest" version. A Pennsylvania Grand Jury indicted former Penn State defensive coordinator Jerry Sandusky on counts relating to the alleged sexual abuse of eight young boys starting in 1998 and continuing after his retirement. The fallout has led to the firing of Penn State's president, athletic director, another administrator, and even legendary football coach Joe Paterno.

I have never been a fan of Penn State's program, which is kind of an irony, given that I like athletes to be smart, and "JoePa" was always regarded as a coach who made sure his players did well academically. Despite my irrational dislike of the the program (likely due to my backing of Pitt), I do not agree with Paterno's firing by the university's Board of Trustees, and I am firmly in the minority.

Upon reading the 23-page indictment, I am bound to support that Paterno did what he should have done.

From Page 12 of the aforementioned (and linked) Grand Jury Report:

"Pennsylvania's mandatory reporting statue for suspected shicle abuse...provides that when a staff member reports abuse, pursuant to statute, the person in charge of the school or institution has the responsibility and legal obligation to report or cause such a report to be made by telephone and in writing within 48 hours to the Department of Public Welfare of the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania."

Yes, in hindsight, Paterno says he wishes he would have done more. There are many who believe that Paterno would have been able to do anything he wanted, beaurocracy be damned. Maybe that's true, but that he purposefully turned a blind eye to this situation, if it's all true, would still need to be demonstrated to me before I change my stance.

On today's show:

- Steelers make a few too many mistakes in loss to Ravens.

- Penguins get little in return for trading promising young player.

- Pirates sign yet another aging veteran on the (relative) cheap.

-Pitt is done.

- Mike goes 2-0 in his NFL picks last week (8-10 overall).

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#228: Raven Revenge

2011-11-05T10:51:00.003-04:00

---SSL Broadcast #66---

Sorry for the "USA Today"-style headline.

Last week, the Steelers were able to beat the Patriots primarily by keeping the ball out of Tom Brady's hands. The time of possession differential was essentially 2-to-1 in favor of the Steelers, and they won by only 8 points (the last two coming on a bizarre safety right at the end). Not only that, but the Steeler defense played man-to-man coverage against the New England wideouts, a deviation from previous PIT/NE contests.

This week, a different animal comes to Heinz Field. The division rival Baltimore Ravens will come a-calling, looking to execute a regular season sweep and take first place from the Steelers (perhaps to be shared with the Bengals) and create a virtual 2-game lead (with tie-breakers factored in).

Baltimore is a far superior team defensively than the Patriots, and they have a pass rush that can put quarterback Ben Roethlisberger on his backside almost as soon as he receives the ball from center Marquis Pouncey.

The key to the Steelers surviving the Ravens is to keep their All-Pro nose guard Haloti Ngata out of the backfield. I don't think that reports of a thigh injury on the big man will slow him significantly. Ngata aside, Pittsburgh's passing defense should be able to keep Joe Flacco in check. And even if running back Ray Rice rushes for 100 yards or so (which I expect), if Roethlisberger has time to throw, the Steelers should be able to keep it close.

Bottom line: If the Steeler O-Line, and particularly right guard Ramon Foster, can keep the big defensive lineman in front of them, Pittsburgh can win this game. If he's allowed to run free in the Steeler backfield..."Ngata" chance.

On today's show:

- Steeler talk for most of the show.

- Penguins cool off this week.

- Pirates do not pick up options on several high priced players.

-Pitt is still in the running for a conference crown.

- Mike goes 1-1 in his NFL picks last week (6-10 overall...ick).

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#227: The New England Conundrum

2011-10-29T11:12:00.000-04:00

---SSL Broadcast #65---

The New England Patriots were built to beat the Pittsburgh Steelers.

If recent history is any indication, on Sunday the Pats will cruise to a big lead early, then allow some big plays toward the end when Pittsburgh has no choice.

A friend of mine polled me shortly after the Steelers/Cardinals game last week as to what I thought the betting line should be (the spread, if you will) for NE-PIT. I told him Patriots by 10. He told me that two other people, including an expert from Yahoo! Sports, had said the same thing. However, Las Vegas has the line at Patriots -2.5, and it's been there all week.

Now, if there's one thing I've learned over the past few years, it's that Vegas knows what it's doing, else there would be more parking lots than hotels in Sin City. If other folks out there have handicapped the match-up at closer to -10, then the casual gambler would be putting a signficant sum on that Patriots to win by at least a field goal.

I don't think the Steelers can keep up with the Patriots. Brady will start by dinking and dunking, primarily to slot receiver Wes Welker, who will draw coverage mainly from linebackers (who can't cover). When the secondary comes up to assist, Brady will hit a big gainer to one of his deep threats or big tight ends. And if Brady sees a formation that doesn't seem to favor either option, he'll turn running back BenJarvis Green-Ellis loose who will gash Pittsburgh for first down yardage. With run-stopping defensive end Aaron Smith's career likely over, the Steelers will be more vulnerable to the rush on the left side of the defensive front. And with Stevenson Sylvester likely spelling inside linebacker James Farrior, that only weakens the D even more.

Pittsburgh's offense will score, but they go to the "deep ball to Mike Wallace" well far too often. Also, I think the Steelers won't pull out all the stops this week. Any tricks they want to execute, they will save for an even more imporant rivalry game next week vs. Baltimore.

So something has to break. Either my analysis of the Patriot offense vs. the Steeler defense is completely wrong, or Vegas thinks New England -2.5 will balance their book.

On today's show:

- 2011 World Series best in a decade.

- Penguins take a 5-game winning streak into Toronto. More importantly, they're still in the positive in Shots-on-Goal Differential.

- West Virginia moves to the Big 12 conference.

- Mike goes 0-2 in his NFL picks (5-9 overall) and the World Series pick falls one strike short...just a bad week for picks....

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#226: Raw Deal (for Oakland)

2011-10-22T11:34:00.000-04:00

---SSL Broadcast #64---

I thought that with the passing of longtime Oakland Radiers owner Al Davis a couple of weeks ago that his team would begin to emerge from the morrass of a decade of futility.

Apparently, Davis is busy continuing to curse the team from the grave.

The Raiders - who are a very game 4-2 so far this year - completed a trade this week with Cincinnati for overrated quarterback Carson Palmer, who has voluntarily stayed off the field and away from the black and orange until he was traded.

Some feel that the trade was warranted due to the recent injury to starting quarterback Jason Campbell, who will be out of action for a minimum of six weeks. Kyle Boller (he of the rocket arm strength, but drunken stupor accuracy) is the backup. Given that, picking up a disgruntled quarterback who is not being used (and whose team was doing just fine without him, thankyouverymuch) seemed to be sensible.

Potentially giving up two first round picks in the next two years to take a former first round pick who has never won a postseason game, shies away from hits, and has a very average 7.1 yards per pass attempt average (with weapons like Chad Johnson/Ochocinco, T.J. Houshmanzadeh, Chris Henry, and Terrell Owens) is what makes the move asinine.
I would think that Raider Nation would have been excited by the prospect of having a first round draft choice that didn't make them want to throw a brick through their televisions. It appears that, even in the post-Davis era, the Oakland faithful will have to wait for that day and suffer the frustrations of California's native son that fans in southwest Ohio have had to endure for nearly a decade prior.

On today's show:

- Pitt "high octane" bottoms out after 26-14 loss to Utah.

- Steelers narrowly avoid one let down, now must try to avoid another in the week leading up to a showdown with the Patriots.

- Gerritt Cole gets his first win as a professional pitcher.

- Mike once again goes 1-1 in his NFL picks (5-7 overall). His World Series winner stays alive, though his projected National League opponent was eliminated.

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#225: High Octane Burnout

2011-10-15T10:56:00.000-04:00

---SSL Broadcast #63---

After getting pasted in Piscataway, New Jersey, by the Rutgers Scarlet Knights last Saturday, it's probably time to give Pitt Head Coach Todd Graham's touted "high octane" offense a rest.

Hopes were high entering the season, as Pitt finally pulled an "out with the old, in with the new" when they let go of comfy alumnus Dave Wannestedt for the unknown Graham. Many believed that converting to more of a passing offense was what the team needed to step up and be noticed among other Division I-A schools..

Now it's clear that the engine (recruits) that was built by Wannestedt only processes low-octane fuel, as evidenced by the success on the ground of running back Ray Graham (I feel obligated to point out that he and the coach are not related...) and the sputtering of the air attack.

Quarterback Tino Sunseri has thrown for only five touchdowns, been picked off seven times, and is completing passes at an anemic 6.24 yards per attempt entering today's tilt with Utah. Freshman backup Trey Anderson's numbers are actually worse, but he's had limited playing time.

Graham needs to play the hand he's been dealt if he wants to be successful in 2011 and 2012, before his own recruits begin to take root with the high-scoring output system he desires. More Graham, more strategic use of Sunseri. Otherwise, it's like filling a diesel engine with regular unleaded.

Also on today's show:

- Sidney Crosby cleared for contact drills.

- Steelers try to keep momentum when Jacksonville comes to town.

- Pirates celebrate 1960 World Series.

- Mike goes 1-1 in his NFL picks (4-6 overall). His World Series matchup (TEX over MIL) is in a bit of trouble, though after the Brewers are pushed to the brink.

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#224: Taunt Me Not

2011-10-08T11:07:00.001-04:00

---SSL Broadcast #62---

"Act like you've been there before.".

The Pittsburgh Steelers, by all rights, should have been blown out of Reliant Stadium in Houston last Sunday by the Texans, but were fortunate to absorb a respectable 7-point road loss.

The problems the Steelers face are many. The most obvious failing is an offensive line that has trouble picking up a three-man rush. And even the best players on that line (including center Maurkice Pouncey) are banged up.

Their defensive front seven seems to be getting blown off the ball at the snap, and unable to produce an effective pass rush, or maintain gap control against the better running backs in the league.

The last thing the Steelers need is an inate ability to draw 15-yard penalties for easily avoidable flags.

Last week, star receiver Mike Wallace was penalized 15 yards for taunting the Houston sideline after a long gainer, negating most of the yardage.

I was under the impression that Wallace was paid good money to catch balls, move chains, and score points.

Another young speedster, Antonio Brown, was penalized in the preseason for a taunt, as well.

Head coach Mike Tomlin needs to get the message through that the Steelers are not going to have quite the offensive output as last year, and that having to drive extra yardage is not a recipe for success in 2011.

Also on the show:

- Penguins open with a shootout win.

- Pitt looks to avoid a letdown in Piscataway, New Jersey, against the Scarlet Knights of Rutgers..

- Pirates get a TV ratings boost from last season..

- Power signs former Arena Bowl MVP Quarterback as 2012 schedule is released.

- Mike goes 2-0 in his NFL picks for the first time this year (3-5 overall). He also goes 3 out of 4 in Baseball series prediction. However, his World Series matchup remains intact.

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#223: Pirates Post-Mortem 2011

2011-10-01T10:58:00.003-04:00

---SSL Broadcast #61---

While the beginning of the Pittsburgh Pirates season was unlike anything fans were used to, the end of the season was all too familiar.

Despite my bold prediction before the season even started that the Pirates would finish in the top 10 offense in batting average after the All-Star Break, nothing could have been further from the truth.

The Pirates were tied for second-worst in the National League (with defending champion San Francisco) at .241. The pitching didn't help matters after the break, either, tied for the worst WHIP (walks/hits per inning pitched) in all of baseball after the break (with the Minnesota Twins) at 1.53. And the ERA suffered for it, being 2nd worst in the National League at 4.78. The only worse ERA in the NL was Colorado, but they also play at a higher elevation, humidor or no.

Now, the questions for 2012 include: Who will the Pirates keep with an overflow in the outfield? Specifically, what will become of Garrett Jones. Is there any reason to keep Ryan Ludwick around? Any chance that Derrek Lee will stay (many reports have said absolutely not)? What about Ryan Doumit, Paul Maholm, or Ross Ohlendorff? Who, if anyone, will be ready to come to the major leagues next season?

And, perhaps the biggest question of all: Was last season a complete fluke, or was the early season success a glimpse of what's to come? It should come as no surprise that I suspect the latter.

Tim Neverett of the Pirates Baseball Network joins me on the first segment of the program with some final thoughts regarding the 2011 Buccos.

Also on the show:

- Penguins still unbeaten in preseason.

- Steelers fortunate to escape Indy with a win, tall task awaits in Houston.

- Pitt finally plays well, but only after the schedule pits them against fellow Big East teams.

- Mike sucks at making picks (1-5 overall), but that won't stop him from trying. He'll even try to predict the Major League Baseball playoffs.

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#222: Scorecasting

2011-09-26T10:08:00.000-04:00

---SSL Broadcast #60---

This is going to seem like a shameless plug.

And it is. Only it's not for anything I've done.

I encourage everyone to go out and either buy or go to the library and check out the book "Scorecasting."

It's bloody awesome. It puts to the task many of the held truisms of sports and does a fair job of debunking some of them. Listen to the first fifteen minutes of the show and my interview with co-author L. Jon Wertheim. We just scratch the surface, but if you're not intrigued by this book, maybe you're not really interested in sports.

Oh, and enjoy the technical difficulties at the very front end. I know I did...

Also on the show:

- Despite historic collapse for a one-time first place team, Pirates have first 70+ win season in 7 years.

- Penguins look good so far in preseason.

- Pitt D once again the problem in loss to Iowa.

- Steeler fans should be worried about undermann(ing)ed Indianapolis. Jonathan Scott vs. Dwight Freeney is the main reason why.

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#221: Baseless Grudge

2011-09-17T13:42:00.001-04:00

---SSL Broadcast #59---

Someone needs to give Seattle Seahawks fans something - anything - to complain about.

It doesn't help that prominent sports networks continue, six years later, to feed the fire that there was controversial officiating in Super Bowl XL. However, the words are the only kindling that truly keep the flames burning. There is no - and has never been any - substantive fuel.

Introducing Bill Leavy as the referee for Sunday's tilt at Heinz Field only serves as kerosene.

Leavy's presence should not matter one iota. The 2011 Seattle Seahawks are not a championship-caliber team, so any talk of a "rematch" are silly at best. The head coach in that Super Bowl is in the front office of a team on the other side of the country. Its starting quarterback is in Tennessee. Its star running back is no longer in the league. It's not even fair to say this year's Seattle team is a shell of its former self. It's much worse than that.

The reason that the officiating continues to be the focus of that game is that there really wasn't anything special about it. In the scope of championship games, it might be among the worst football has ever seen. Even in some of the blowouts in the 80s, at least ONE team was clearly superior. In the case of XL, neither played anywhere close to potential.

Here's a statement I encourage all readers (no matter when you come across this article) to repeat and spread:

Super Bowl XL was a poorly played game by both sides.

That's the only legitimate complaint that football fans everywhere should have with that game. The rest is as artificial as aspertame.

Bill Leavy owes no one anything tomorrow.

Seattle fans (and Steeler haters and the football-ignorant) owe the rest of us a break.

Also on the show:

- Post-mortem of Pittsburgh's blowout loss in Baltimore.

- Pirates lock up losing season #19 in a row.

- With all the attention on Pitt's transition on offense, the pourous defense is being ignored.

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#220: 2011 NFL Preview

2011-09-10T10:28:00.002-04:00

---SSL Broadcast #58---

True to form, the final 5 cuts for the Pittsburgh Steelers that I tried to predict was half right.

Jeremy Kapinos and Jerrett Crittenton were cut, and I said it would be between John Gilmore or Weslye Saunders (it was Gilmore, and I didn't commit to one, so that counts as half). I also predicted Keenan Lewis and William Gay would be shown the door. Instead, offensive lineman Tony Hills and defensive back Crezdon Butler didn't make the team.

That's probably an accurate portent of the NFL Preview on today's show with my producer, Jerome Shell.

The preview is probably the shortest such event in broadcasting, as it does its best to not be as self-important as other pundits and "experts" out there. And it'll probably end up being just as accurate.

As long as New England doesn't win it all, I couldn't care less if all my predictions fall flat.

Aside from the preview:

- Pitt football head coach Todd Graham not satisfied with team's win last week

- Civic arena demolition one step closer

- A brief look at Steelers/Ravens 2011, Part I

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#219: Final Cut

2011-09-03T10:35:00.003-04:00

---SSL Broadcast #57---

My biggest fear as a Steeler fan this season is that this team is deceptively shallow.

In a list of players cut Friday, none of the names on the list really jumps up and bites you as a major loss.

I would have preferred to keep John Clay instead of Jonathan Dwyer at running back, for example, but I don't think it will adversely affect the team that they went the other way. I also feel bad for Tyler Grisham. This guy tries so hard and falls short every year. I might have kept him and cut both 10-year veteran John Gilmore and rookie Weslye Saunders. Again, though, that cut isn't going to make or break the team.

Of the remaining 5 cuts the Steelers must make by 6PM this evening, I don't think that's terribly difficult.

It's a tough decision as to which punter they keep, but they'll certainly cut one. They have to weigh whether it's better to keep the oft-injured Daniel Sepulveda, upon whom the Steelers utilized a fourth-round pick to obtain, or the capable Jeremy Kapinos, but one will go (I'd take a chance on Kapinos, but the team will almost certainly keep Sepulveda). The one who's out will certainly land with another team sooner rather than later.

They likely will part with either the aforementioned Gilmore or Saunders (two cuts).

Undrafted free agent Jerrett Crittenton will also likely go.

And I wouldn't hesitate to pull the trigger on Keenan Lewis or William Gay, either (the latter of which might free up a little bit of cap space).

The fact that it was this easy for me scares me. Some years, it's been torture to try to decide between which players have the least upside, rather than determine which players have virtually none.

Time will tell.

In today's show:

- The Pitt Panthers are going to open wide for the first time the evening

- Some Pittsburgh Pirates have obviously mailed it in

- TCU takes its first step in becoming a Big East team

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#218: Head First

2011-08-27T10:43:00.002-04:00

---SSL Broadcast #56---

This is going to be a short header this week. If you listen to the show, it's evident that my new contact lens prescription is making me unfocused.

I want to bring up Sidney Crosby and the concussion thing.

If #87 doesn't play another game in his life because he's concerned about being reduced to a drooling half-vegetable by one of the several players in the league looking to level him, I'm fine with it.

You couldn't pay me enough to trade away my mobility, agility, and general functionality. I'd rather struggle through three minimum-wage jobs at full capacity than live life in a fog, living off millions I'd earned in my youth.

There are "fans" out there starting to grumble that he's weak or a coward or something worse.

It seems that sports is beginning to evolve from less of a variety of chest-beating contests into more a thinker's/strategist's arena, where you proceed only after examining all the factors.

Of course, the trade off seems to be that the fans now engage in chest-beating contests instead.

In today's show:

- One caller brings up a couple points on NCAA Football conference realignment

- Steelers getting set for the most important preseason game for the starters

- Ronny Cedeno going head first into first base is not irrational or necessarily counter productive in the big picture.

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#217: Big Spenders

2011-08-20T11:31:00.002-04:00

---SSL Broadcast #55---

This week, the Pittsburgh Pirates signed their top two picks in the Major League draft to contracts that included huge signing bonuses.

First overall pick Gerrit Cole received an $8 million signing bonus (double the projected slot value) and second-rounder Josh Bell received a $5 million bonus (nearly 10 times the projected slot value).

At first glance, this appears to be the Pirates doing what they can to make sure they retain young, quality players.

Through the "Steeltown Sports" lens, however, this just shows me that they are putting the extra money they've earned into the future now, with no guarantee that when these players are major league-ready, that they will pay to retain them if they turn out to be championship caliber.

The irony is that Pirates president Frank Coonelly is generally someone who likes to make sure that draftees (regardless of team) sign at or below slot. I'm not sure how he feels about this precedent.

We'll see where their hearts (and wallets) are when it comes time to resign players like Andrew McCutchen and Neil Walker to long-term deals.

In today's show:

- Steelers first-teamers looked good vs. Philadelphia.

- Sidney Crosby's concussion saga continues.

- Miami University potentially facing the NCAA "death penalty"

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#216: Rust

2011-08-13T10:27:00.002-04:00

---SSL Broadcast #54---

Rust. That's all I'll chalk up last night's Pittsburgh Steelers' 16-7 loss to the Washington Redskins to.

Yes, all teams have been hampered by not having off-season workouts, rookie camps, mini-camps, OTAs, etc, but the Steelers also opted not to leave in their starters beyond the first quarter, if they even played them at all (e.g. Troy Polamalu).

Mike Wallace was overthrown. Tim Hightower slipped tackles and shrugged off missile-style hits like it's his job (oh...wait...). No sacks recorded on Washington quarterbacks. Special teams coverage was horrid, even when the punts were good.

Hopefully, for the black and gold faithful, preseason game number one is not a portent of the season that lies ahead, or it will be a long one, indeed.

It's still way too early, and there have only been a couple of weeks of training camp, but red flags are already all over the place. Pittsburgh still has a few weeks left to improve on everything, but this era of Steeler teams has a tendency to have a significant setback after a Super Bowl appearance.

With James Harrison distractions, Hines Ward D-U-Is, and a list of other factors, this is head coach Mike Tomlin's season to prove he can take control of this team and whip them into shape, much like he did during his first training camp as coach.

In today's show:

- Only a couple of bright spots in Steelers preseason opener.

- Who's your preferred line-up for the Pirate stretch run?

- Standout Pitt player may transfer.

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#215: Panic Button

2011-08-06T10:32:00.002-04:00

---SSL Broadcast #53---

The city of Pittsburgh should probably erect a safety net beneath the Roberto Clemente Bridge.

After a solid first half of the season, the Pittsburgh Pirates are hemorrhaging runs like it's their job this midsummer, and fans who allowed their hopes to be raised (against my advise) are lamenting a lost season.

In the midst of an eight-game losing streak (that has included a four-game sweep of the pitiful Chicago Cubs and a blowout loss to offensively-challenged San Diego), the Pirates have started to look very much like the squad that finished with 105 losses last year, rather than the one that was in first place just a few short weeks ago.

I have kept a little saying in my head, that others should have adopted months ago:

A 79-83 record is still a 22-game improvement.

At the beginning of the season, this would have met with near-unanimous approval. Now, it's not acceptable.

The thing about sports, and specifically statistics, is that things tend to return to a mean. The Pirates have had offensive problems all season, with a team batting average in just about all situations is in the bottom third. Pitching-wise, the team's earned run average is still better than the league average (top 10), but the hidden statistic (the WHIP) is in the bottom 10.

The WHIP, being the stronger future indicator most of the time, tells me that the Pirates are due to give up some more runs.

The only thing that can stave off losses that would result is if the team gets healthier (Alex Presley and newly-acquired first baseman Derrek Lee, in particular) and scores runs, winning some 8-7 contests.

Otherwise, a season win total in the mid-70s seems to be inevitable (which would still be a double-digit improvement).

The blessing in all of this is that the ownership has experienced some success this year and has seen how much more money they stand to make by putting a competitive team in PNC Park. Once late-season attendence drops back down to the norm, it'll be in their court whether they seriously pursue some legitimate free agents in the off-season (read: spend some money).

In today's show:

- Steelers sign another big piece of their defense, while others restructure contracts to make it possible.

- Penguins sign their first round pick from the 2011 NHL draft

- Pitt and West Virginia are expected to be the top two finishers in Big East football this year. Which order?

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#214: After Review, No More Replay in MLB

2011-07-30T10:51:00.002-04:00

---SSL Broadcast #52---

I blame my generation.

It seems as though folks my age (mid-30s) and younger are really driving toward getting MORE instant replay injected into Major League Baseball.

I could not be more opposed to this idea.

Of course, the whole debate has been (re)sparked by a call at the plate in the bottom of the 19th inning at Turner Field in Atlanta. Home plate umpire Jerry Meals called Julio Lugo safe with the winning run, when replays appeared to show Pirates catcher Michael McKenry swipe tag Lugo on the leg as he slid past (and showed Lugo stand up somewhat dejectedly) before getting the favorable call.

Despite what some folks claim, the tag wasn't quite the sure thing. Some screen shots used to demonstrate the point use shots that rely on shadow drops. Seeing the play live, it wouldn't be inconceivable to say that McKenry missed. However, the best argument I heard all week was this: The throw to the plate beat Lugo by so much, if the umpire wasn't quite sure, he should have erred on the side of "out," because generally that's how it works.

But because the safe call determined the game, here come the pitchforks and torches, pretty much with the bottom line to replace umpires altogether with video review. And probably sensors to call balls and strikes.

In one regular season, Major League baseball schedules 2430 games. Instances where games are decided in this manner (perhaps once every few seasons), makes this a 1-in-10,000 chance. This is certainly not grounds to uproot the officiating system currently in place.

Slowing an already-slow game even more will take additional fun out of the game. Fans like to see managers argue calls, see opposing managers and players get ejected, they also like the debate that follows controversy. Removing the occasional controversial call will actually stunt the game in the long run.

I think my generation (and younger) are trying to turn baseball into a video game.

If Major League Baseball is going to invest extra money into something officiating-related, have some sort of advanced training for these umpires, and even then only under certain conditions (game-deciding call, recent history of missed calls or varying strike zone).

The fight against replay begins anew as the main topic of today's program.

Also:

- NFL Lockout is over, and the Steelers scramble to sign and waive.

- Pirates play a terrible week of baseball as they try to hang in the playoff race against other contenders.

- Will they make a significant trade deal before tomorrow's deadline? Do they have anybody expendable that anyone wants?

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#213: Don't Give Up the Farm

2011-07-23T10:55:00.002-04:00

---SSL Broadcast #51---

I think I lost count somewhere.

This apparently marks the 1-year anniversary of "Steeltown Sports Live" (tomorrow, actually), but it also says broadcast #51. I thought there were 52 weeks in a year. Oh, well. If someone can find the missing show or otherwise quantify that this indeed is only broadcast 51, I'll send you a package of cookies.

The Major League Baseball trade deadline is just over a week away, and the sports talk lines are buzzing, suggesting things like trading prospects like Jameson Taillon, Stetson Allie and others to get a big bat in the lineup this year.

As much as fans want to win it all right now, it's just not prudent to give up the farm team that has taken a long time to rebuild. You don't give it up for one year.

As a Pirate fan, I am more than willing to watch the team suffer through losing season number 19 if it means that the farm system stays stable. Once I get the impression that the farm system is loaded would I entertain the notion of getting rid of high-slot prospects for a mid-season rental that could push the team over the hump.

Read last week's entry for my thoughts on the possibility of trading Kevin Correia as part of a deal. I'm not saying to get rid of him, period, but he is the most expendable of the current starting rotation that could fetch a decent return if packaged with a couple of middling players. Listen to this week's program to understand why I think this.

- Who, if anyone, do you trade (away and for) if you're the Pirates' brass?

- Pirates success this year lands them on national TV for the first time in a long time.

- The Pittsburgh Power's inaugural season comes to an end.

- Quick thought on United States Women's soccer team goalie Hope Solo and her taking the so-called "high road" by not exaggerating injury.

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#212: First Place Pirates

2011-07-16T10:37:00.002-04:00

---SSL Broadcast #50---

"First Place Pirates."

I haven't said this in July since I was a junior in college (in case you were wondering how old I am).

The starting pitching of this crew is the surprise of the baseball season, but only Paul Maholm and Jeff Karstens appear to be the real deal. Their ERAs and their WHIPs are virtually aligned statistically, and Maholm especially is no stranger to 200 innings pitched. They should remain stable. James McDonald hasn't been able to get any consistency going, and Charlie Morton allows too many runners and is already experiencing arm fatigue despite pitching fewer than 100 innings. Kevin Correia, the 11-game winner, is the wild card. His ERA is slightly higher (4.01) than his WHIP would indicate (1.28), so he might actually improve a bit, as WHIP is the superior indicator.

That said, Correia completely tradeable at this point. The major shortcoming of Pirate management in the last decade-plus in trade situations is that they either get rid of a player when his stock is low or they're dumping salary. Packaging Correia with either Matt Diaz or Garrett Jones and maybe a AA prospect could land a middle of the lineup bat and allow for the return of Ross Ohlendorf (who is due for some good fortune after posting a 1-11 record despite an ERA around 4 (Correia is 11-7 this year with an almost identical ERA). It would also free up a spot on the 25-man roster to keep both outfielders Alex Presley and Jose Tabata when he returns.

Disagree if you will, but I think we can all agree that this is a wonderful debate to be having in mid-July.

- Obviously, Pirates.

- Steelers linebacker James Harrison airs his dirty laundry in the press this week.

- The Pittsburgh Power is eliminated from post-season contention by Cleveland.

- A suggestion or two of how to handle collegiate athletics.

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#211: Two-fer

2011-07-09T10:47:00.002-04:00

---SSL Broadcast #48 & #49---

Can the All-Star game really be fixed and not damage TV viewership?

I'm a long-time supporter of having at least one representative from each team, but it seems that, oftentimes, there are players who get voted onto the team without having done anything in the current year (i.e. Chase Utley of the Phillies who has been hurt).

A caller in today's show brings up a good idea - but it would never work - would be to take the ballots out of the fans hands, at least initially. The managers of each All-Star team would choose their position players and pitchers, choosing a representative from each team. Then, let the fans fill the remainder of the roster.

In this fashion, you get the visibility in each TV market, and you get the players who are the most deserving statistically. Then, you get the players voted in, like an Utley, who the fans want to see, voted in as a reserve.

With internet voting, this is a practical solution, but it won't ever happen under a commissioner who continues to allow the All-Star game to have significance beyond the game itself.

I was out of town last week, so I'm posting the July 2 and July 9 shows in the same post (July 9, the most recent, will be first).

July 9 topics:

- Andrew McCutchen is not the huge All-Star snub that the Pittsburgh media are trying to paint it as.

- The Pittsburgh Power, despite a lukewarm record, controls its own destiny on the road to a playoff crown.

- Should the Pirates make any trade moves if this success continues?

- NFL Lockout snippints

July 2 topics:

- Jaromir Jagr eschews 2nd chance with the Penguins and signs with their archrivals, who also sign another skater the Pens were interested in.

- Penguins do make some signings, though, to the benefit of the team.

- Pirates continue to surprise.

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#210: Serena, Serena

2011-06-25T10:35:00.004-04:00

---SSL Broadcast #47---

While it's not a Pittsburgh sports story, I am forced to shake my head at a complaint that U.S. tennis star Serena Williams made this past week. She was assigned a second round match at Court Two at Wimbledon, which must be a low-capacity venue because she inferred that only Centre Court or Court One would suffice.

She argued that Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovich (the top-two ranked men currently) wouldn't have to play on Court Two.

Attention, Serena. Blame the foot injury that cost you months of tournaments and about 20 spots in the women's rankings. True, you're a four-time Wimbledon champ and a serious contender yet again, but there are other young ladies who are ranked ahead of you right now and would enjoy an opportunity to play on a more "prestigious" court. In time, when you're in the quarter- and semi- finals, you'll be on one of the two "favored" courts. Despite all your accomplishments, you still need to work your way back up.

That's the breaks.

Actually, what's most startling here is that the Women's Tennis Association backs Serena on this. Must be a marketing thing.

Aside from tennis, this week's show consists of -

- The resilient Pirates above .500 as we approach July.

- The Penguins and Jaromir Jagr are still talking, although it appears Jagr might be pursuing the Pens more than they're pursuing him.

- Could either Tiki Barber or Plaxico Burress be playing in Pittsburgh (if there's a season?)

- Snippits from around the rest of Pittsburgh's sports.

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#209: All-Century High

2011-06-18T10:45:00.002-04:00

---SSL Broadcast #46---

The Pittsburgh Pirates (or, as I affectionaly refer to them in print, the Pixburgh P'arts) are having their best season - to this point - in 12 years. I don't talk about it on the show much (I probably should), but the kid in me who loves the Pirates is enjoying this ride. The adult in me who thinks this moderate success can only help keep the club in the clutches of its cheapskate owner even longer.

This week's show's contents -

- Good Samaritans come to Chris Snyder and his wife's rescue.

- The NHL and the NBA crowned their champions this week. Neither winner features a player named "LeBron."

- Snippits from around the rest of Pittsburgh's sports.

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#208: Bucs Will Battle Longer

2011-06-11T10:42:00.002-04:00

---SSL Broadcast #45---

The Bucs actually took the player I preferred in the draft. I guess they can deal with Scott Boras once every three years or so on a top pick. Who knew?

This week's show's contents -

- Talk about Plaxico Burress and what are the odds he could return as a Steeler.

- The Pirates hit 30-30 after 60 games for the first time since 2005. Some statistics from both teams for comparison's sake that seems to indicate this year's Pirates won't fold like paper as the '05 squad did.

- The division-leading Pittsburgh Power travel to Tampa to take on the AFL team that used to call Pittsburgh home.

- I stumble and stammer more than Vinnie Richichi.

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#207: To B (as in "Boras") or Not To B

2011-06-04T10:46:00.002-04:00

---SSL Broadcast #44---

The Pirates are not an embarrassment to talk about this year, but they're also not the most interesting thing to Pittsburgh sports fans. They might get closer, though as the weekend runs down. They have a chance to sweep the Philadelphia Phillies and get back to .500, and then on Monday they have the first overall draft pick of 2011. Will they go with my preferred pick, Gerrit Cole? Or will they avoid Scott Boras altogether and go with who I think they'll pick, Danny Huetzel?

We'll know soon enough.

This week's show -

- Jason Cole from Yahoo! Sports joins us to talk about NFL rule changes and how they might impact the Steelers, and also how the lockout situation is progressing (or not).

- Talk about the MLB draft, and the pros and cons of going pitcher or hitter.

- The Pittsburgh Power win a shootout in Dallas before taking on Cleveland for first place in the division.

- Sidney Crosby is cleared for off-season workouts.

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#206: Stanley Cup Final 2011

2011-06-01T12:08:00.002-04:00

---System Gets Pwned---

This is an off-year for hockey.

Not only did my "vaunted" system have its worst year (regardless of what it predicts in the final round), but many of the experts were correct in picking their Stanley Cup Finalists.

That almost never happens (the latter, more so than the former).

For the Conference Finals round, the System and the Experiment were at odds in both contests, and the Experiment ended up being correct in both cases. The System is an abysmal 7-7, and the Experiment is 11-3 in predicting winners.

I think during the offseason, I'll have to go back and run the Experiment series by series and see what it comes up with for the last few seasons.

The San Jose Sharks, this blog's projected Cup winner since Round 1 went out pretty much with a whimper (and say what you will about Vancouver's alleged diving).

The Tampa Bay Lightning, meanwhile, nearly was able to finish the job, but taking another series to a 7th game on the road still made the system's pick look bona fide.

What happened?

Western Conference

#1 Vancouver vs. #2 San Jose

Well, statistically for the series, San Jose held an average of over 7 shots more per game than the Canucks, although Vancouver won that battle in each of the first two games. The last two games (Canuck wins 3 and 4 of the series), however, was half Sharks goalie Antti Niemi buckling too easily and half Canucks goalie Roberto Luongo being amazing.

In Game 4, Niemi allowed four goals on 13 shots. While it's true that three of the goals came when Vancouver had a two-man advantage, that was a situation where a championship goalie needs to rise. On at least two of those occasions.

In Game 5, San Jose hammered Luongo with 56 shots in 4-plus periods and could only put two past him.

Apparently, an earlier prediction about San Jose and Detroit destroying each other in advance of a showdown witn Vancouver was more accurate than the system.

Moving on...

Eastern Conference

#3 Boston vs. #5 Tampa Bay

Once again, statistically, the advantage in the Shots-on-Goal department went to Tampa (+3.6, on average, for the series). In fact, they won the shots battle in every game but the final one. And, despite Lightning goaltender Dwayne Roloson's best effort, they were unable to generate any offense on the other end in the final game.

Tampa also seemed to catch goaltender Tim Thomas off guard for much of the series, hanging five goals on him four times (winning three) - but only scoring one goal in the remaining games combined.

Roloson blinked in Game 2, when a 5-goal output by his offense would have been enough to win just about any night, and the complete game the Bruins put together in the series finale was enough to get the job done.

Now, to the future...

Stanley Cup Final

#1 Vancouver vs. #3 Boston

According to one source, in the past 20 years or so, no team has won the Stanley Cup when they give up an average of 30 shots or more per game in the regular season.

This trend was officially bucked when both the Canucks and the Bruins advanced to the Final to become the last teams standing.

At first glance, Vancouver appears to have a slight edge. Boston shoots the puck, just slightly more per game than Vancouver, but they gave up two more shots per game on average. That would make Vancouver the System's pick.

But, as with the Boston/Tampa series, this will likely come down to goaltending. Much of the focus in the run-up to this Final has been Canada vs. one of the Original Six.

I prefer to look at it as a duel between fellow Vezina Trophy candidates Thomas and Luongo. For the season, Thomas has the better save percentage. That would likely make Boston the Experiment pick.

Either way, this series looks like it's going to be a lengthy one. Boston's size and presence in the offensive zone vs. Vancouver's finesse and quick strike ability.

On a recent radio show, I said this series would probably be pretty boring, but after looking at these numbers, this might be the best Final that hockey fans will have seen in a long time.

At least the champion will have gone at least a generation without having won one...

Here's the results of the final math.

System says Vancouver in 6 (official pick - gotta stick with it this postseason)

Experiment says Boston in 7 (will likely use this system next year if the past few seasons also reflect a strong corrolation)

Enjoy.

FYI, the fight statistic here in the postseason - in 82 games, there have been 10 fights. There was one fight in each of the conference finals. Several misconducts assessed, but only two fights (12.2% for the postseason). While it could be better, that's a favorable percentage for my taste.

Your comments are always welcome.

#205: Stood Up

2011-05-28T16:23:00.002-04:00

---SSL Broadcast #43---

Ok. The End of Days did not occur last Saturday. One of our callers last week guaranteed that it wouldn't, so we thank her for her steady reassurance.

She was not able to predict (or, at least I didn't ask her about) whether a scheduled guest would make an appearance. Ah, well. Those national writers are busy. And sometimes they "space." We'll try again to get Jason Cole from Yahoo! Sports next week to talk about the new NFL rules, what they mean for the Steelers, and also try to discern any additional insight he has into the NFL lockout situation.

This week's show -

- Will the NFL's new rules and definition of "defenseless receiver" alter the way the Steelers play, or will it galvanize them?

- Thoughts on the Stanley Cup Final, NBA Finals and a "thought" on the Indianapolis 500.

- Pittsburgh Power begin 2nd half of season vs. the OTHER expansion AFL franchise.

- Pirates batting McCutchen anywhere but leadoff is a disservice to the team. He's not a 3-hole hitter. And, also, trade Ryan Doumit before he completely returns to form.

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#204: Ragnarok Edition

2011-05-21T10:35:00.002-04:00

---SSL Broadcast #42---

Well, if this was the final broadcast of "Steeltown Sports: Live," let me just say I could have done a hell of a lot better.

This week's show -

- One Steeler in particular makes use of his time during the lockout.

- The NFL lockout does not appear to have a conclusion that is soon in coming. Meanwhile, the NFL Players' Association is getting sport from the players unions for Major League Baseball, the NHL, and the NBA.

- Paul Maholm and Charlie Morton should end up having more comparable seasons if things even out statistically.

- The Pittsburgh Power end the first half of their season with a 5-4 record, following a dramatic come-from-behind home win against San Jose.

- We poke a lot of fun at the end of the world that's supposed to happen today...

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#203: NHL Playoffs, Round 3

2011-05-14T11:52:00.000-04:00

---Up for Grabs---

Through two rounds of action this season, "The Experiment" seems to have a slight edge over "The System" in predicting winners, though it, too, is far from perfect.

For Round Two, however, both methods yielded three winners and one loser. Steeltown Sports accurately predicted the Canucks, Lightning, and Sharks, while the experiment correctly predicted the Canucks, Sharks, and Bruins. Overall, the System is 7-5, but the experiment is 9-3.

Half of the second round series were thrillers (both Western Conference matchups), but the Eastern Conference featured two stinkers (unless you're a Boston or Tampa fan). Still, eight of twelve series have gone longer than five games and five of those have gone all the way to Game 7.

First, a thumbnail sketch of the series that were.

Western Conference

#1 Vancouver vs. #5 Nashville

While "The System" and "The Experiment" both picked Vancouver, "The Experiment" gets the edge because it nailed the correct number of games (6).

This series was better than expected because only one game was decided by more than one goal (because one game had an empty-net goal to make the final margin two), two of the contests went into overtime, and there were plenty of late-game heroics from both sides.

For the series, Vancouver enjoyed a Shots-on-Goal Differential (SOGD) average of only +3.7 per game, a figure that seemed to belie the regular season tendencies.

That said, Vezina Trophy candidate Pekka Rinne for the Predators played very well, probably even better than his cross-ice counterpart (and fellow Vezina nominee) Roberto Luongo. Of all the teams in the second round, the one I would have most expected to be swept would have been Nashville. Far from reality.

Regardless, their elimination means that, once again there is no team remaining in the tournament who had a regular season SOGD in the negative, and therefore cannot win Lord Stanley's Cup.

Another nugget from the Round Two preview to keep in mind going forward is:

For those prediting [sic] a Vancouver appearance in the Stanley Cup [Final], this match-up buoys it because San Jose and Detroit are likely to destroy each other in other other Western Conference Semifinal.

Whoa...

#2 San Jose vs. #3 Detroit

This series was not as high-scoring as expected, and the San Jose in 6 games prediction by both "The System" and "The Experiment" was off.

Still, the projected winner (and my projected champion) survived.

Just like Nashville/Vancouver, every game except one was decided by one goal (Game 6's 2-goal differential was the result of an empty-netter), and featured two games that went beyond regulation

Antti Niemi, Cup winning goaltender just a season ago, raised his game for the most part, withstanding a desperate surge from Detroit late in the final game. Once again, though, they system predicted San Jose would have about a 2-shot advantage per game.

As it turns out, each team shot the puck an equal number of times, so the differential was a perfect 0.

It's one of those series that make you wish the hockey postseason would never end. Unlike...

Eastern Conference

#1 Washington vs. #5 Tampa Bay

The strange thing about the SOGD system is that it doesn't always align with what actually happens when the teams in question get together (as has already been alluded to twice).

Tampa Bay had a +0.6 SOGD advantage over Washington, but they were outshot in three of the four games, for a 4-game average of five shots per game. The first three games of this series were close, decided by one goal (or an empty netter). In Game Four, the only game where Tampa outshot the Capitals, Tampa crushed them on the scoreboard, but only fired the puck one more time than Washington.

Tampa still has the best save percentage in the playoffs (93.8%) with Boston (see next capsule) right behind.

#2 Philadelphia vs. #3 Boston

This capsule is going to be longer and more exciting than this series was.

First, credit where it is due.

Bruins goalie Tim Thomas cannot afford to take a step back if his team is to advance.

In three of the four games, Boston's netminder posted a save percentage above 95%. In game one, his 91.2% mark was average, but his offense gave him seven goals.

As for as SOGD, Philadelphia played this series about what the statistics would have indicated. They won that battle in three of the four games (won big in Games 2 and 3), and the series differential favored the Flyers by an average of 5.5 shots per game.

In complete contrast to Thomas, Philly's goaltending failed to save 90% of the shots it faced in three of the four contests. Game 2, the contest in which goaltending was not an issue, went to overtime, and the B's withstood a 54-shot barrage from the hosts.

"The Experiment" selected the correct winner while "The System" fell on its face like a Philadelphia goalie.

Now, onto the Conference Finals.

Western Conference

#1 Vancouver vs. #2 San Jose

The "experts" pick vs. my pick.

San Jose has been my projected champion from the start, though they are not the Shots-on-Goal Differential juggernaut of past champions like the 2010 Chicago Blackhawks or the 2008 Detroit Red Wings.

As I alluded above, Vancouver backers had to enjoy the San Jose/Detroit series two-fold, because it was entertaining hockey, and the Sharks could be exhausted after withstanding a desperate Detroit team for four straight contests.

San Jose, however, outperformed a much better team (Detroit) than Vancouver (Nashville) in the second round. It is actually more likely that San Jose will be stronger than Vancouver as a result and steal Game 1 and home ice advantage.

Either way, both of these teams have been unable to reach the Stanley Cup Final (1994 for the Canucks, never for the Sharks), so the victor will be exorcising a demon.

As with the Eastern Conference contest (see below), the goaltending matchup will be a lot of fun to follow. After all, Niemi defeated Luongo last year...

"The System" says: Sharks in 6. (Official Pick)

"The Experiment" says: Canucks in 6.

Eastern Conference

#3 Boston vs. #5 Tampa Bay

The "experts" pick vs. my pick. Again.

Yes, the Penguins were my initial pick to represent the East, but both here and on my radio program (as well as various comment threads on social media websites), I mentioned (or alluded) that the winner of the PIT/TB series would play for the Cup.

Both teams are equally rested or rusted. Both teams have experienced the breeze of a series sweep and endured the attrition of a seven-gamer. Both teams have an aging goaltender who will not be denied.

What I find most intriguing from a statistics standpoint is that both teams have had to ride their goaltenders (Tampa more so than Boston), and both squads swept their respective Round 2 matchups despite being outshot, on average, by at least five shots per game.

This postseason, Boston has had a tendency to do better shooting the puck on home ice (and it has that advantage this series), but Tampa has the better overall regular season statistics with regard to shots on goal.

Still, in the postseason, these two teams have given up the most shots per game (35.5 for Tampa, 34.4 for Boston), but Boston has shot the puck a lot more per game (33.8 vs Tampa's 27.5)

Therefore, it appears that the outcome of this showdown will revolve (once again) around the performance of 41-year old Lightning goaltender Dwayne Roloson. However, regular season statistics are the trend that outcomes seem to follow, regardless of whether "The System" or "The Experiment" is the superior determinant.

The B's and the Bolts. Buckle up.

"The System" says: Lightning in 7. (Official Pick)

"The Experiment" says: Bruins in 6.

"The System" and "The Experiment" are different in both series. Go, System!

What might be my favorite, big-picture part of this postseason is that in 70 games so far this playoff year, there have been only eight fights. Maybe this is par for the course, but it seemed like hockey fights were way up during the regular season from recent years. It's good to see that come back to Earth and fans actually get to watch hockey instead of Boxing on Ice.

Your comments, as well as your own predictions, are welcome.

#202: Head Above, Below Water

2011-05-14T10:32:00.002-04:00

---SSL Broadcast #41---

If you're not watching the NHL playoffs this year, shame on you for six...teen weeks. That is all.

This week's show -

- Pirates briefly above .500, then right back to reality.

- Rumors abound that the Penguins are considering bringing back a superstar from the past.

- A couple of ex-Steelers in the news, and one current Steeler almost disqualified from a competition.

- The Pittsburgh Power have been playing largely competitive football, but the Arena Football League and the team itself have failed to stoke popularity in the sport as attendence at Consol Energy Center continues to fall.

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#201: Price of Free Speech

2011-05-07T10:21:00.002-04:00

---SSL Broadcast #40---

Steeltown Sports Live turns the Big Four-Oh. That means in about 3 months we'll be having our anniversary show... Yikes...

This week's show -

- Rashard Mendenhall pays the price for his controversial comments with his sponsor, but he wasn't entirely out of line.

- Pirates road record is impressive (for them), but their performance has been bolstered more by their underachieving home opponents.

- Hines Ward cuffed in L.A. over a misunderstanding regarding a stolen car (a caller actually mentions "Dancing with the Stars"

- The Pittsburgh Power fall to the Force.

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#200: Shocking Results

2011-04-30T10:38:00.002-04:00

---SSL Broadcast #39---

Click the banner above for Sports Events International. You can attend Penguins postseason games at Consol Energy Center, get prime seats for Pittsburgh Power games, or tickets for big-draw Pirate games like Skyblast. SEI can not only get you into the game, but get you up close. Click now. Tell 'em you heard about them from Steeltown Mike.

================================

I was actually a bit exhausted while doing this show. It's been a busy week, and I've had less time to follow things in sports, let alone all this nonsense with the Royal Wedding (congratulations and all, but I don't need it shoved in my face) and whatever food product Lady Gaga's outfit is made of today.

That said, it was a fairly involved and organized show (for a change). Take a listen, if you please.

This week's show -

- The Penguins have been eliminated, but it's more a credit to Tampa Bay than a knock on Pittsburgh.

- Was a defensive end the right way for the Steelers to go with the first pick of the NFL draft?

- The Pirates almost seem like they're becoming stable in their starting pitching. Can it possibly hold?

- A Pittsburgh Power nabs MVP of the Week honors from the arena football league.

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#199: NHL Playoffs, Round 2

2011-04-28T11:21:00.005-04:00

---Shocking Results---

Right off the bat, I'll mention that the official Steeltown Sports predictions in Round One, as far as winners were concerned, went 4-4 (Washington, San Jose, Detroit, and Nashville were correct).

Professional bettors would never accept that.

Then again, professional bettors typically make their money off of upsets, and there were only two, insofar as seeding (both #5s defeated the #4s).

It's enough to make Barry Melrose (who picked every single higher seed in Round 1) look like a genius.

If you remember from post #197, we also ran an experiment to find out of these was a stronger tendency to predict a series winner factoring in save percentage.

Vancouver, San Jose, Nashville, Washington, Philadelphia, and Boston were correctly predicted in that model, which, of course, is 6-2. With a better corrolation than the current official system, we'll keep following to see if it holds.

Another prediction that seems to be coming true is the one that said NHL fans were in for an exciting postseason. With six series going at least six games, and four going the distance, that doesn't appear to be far off, either. And it should only get better.

First, a thumbnail sketch of the series that were.

Western Conference

#1 Vancouver vs. #8 Chicago

Strange times. Checking the statistics from the seven games as a total, Vancouver outshot Chicago by just two. The Canucks had the lower save percentage (89.8% vs 92.7%) and a lower shooting percentage (8.7% vs. 10.2%).

However, Chicago lost three of four games by just one goal, and won two of their three by 5 goals, which would account for the percentage advantages.

This actually does not bode too well for the Canucks if they want to have a chance at the Cup (which many so-called "experts" are predicting), except that they have drawn the weakest team remaining in the tournament, the Nashville Predators.

Despite season averages, Vancouver actually outshot Chicago in five of the seven games.

And speaking of seventh games, their Game 7 was a classic, with a shorthanded goal by reigning Conn Smythe trophy winner Jonathan Toews with under two minutes to go to force overtime.

More, please...

#2 San Jose vs. #7 Los Angeles

This is one of those series that the Shots-on-Goal Differential (SOGD) + Save percentage formula worked perfectly. The Sharks advanced in a thrilling six games over the game L.A. Kings. Still, the ice was tilted in San Jose's favor much of the series, with the Sharks outshooting Los Angeles by an average of 10 shots per game. I'm not certain if it was Kings' goalie Jonathan Quick's fairly decent 91.3% save percentage or San Jose netminder Antti Niemi's anemic 86.3% that allowed the series to go six games.

#3 Detroit vs. #6 Phoenix

This is one of two series that this blog nailed, accurately predicting a Motor City sweep. Detroit trailed only three times in the series (once early in Game 1, and twice in Game 4). To Phoenix's credit, they did win the shots battle in Game 2 (33-31), but were outshot, on average by 7 shots per game.

#4 Anaheim vs. #5 Nashville

This is the other series that this blog nailed, accurately predicting Nashville winning its first-ever Stanley Cup playoff round in six. This was the only matchup that involved two teams with negative shots on goal differentials for the season, and it was fairly ugly. Nashville outshot Anaheim by an average of about 4.5 shots per game, but Anaheim was also assessed 32 more minutes in penalties (12 of them coming with 10 seconds left in the series).

Neither goalie did particularly well, either. The Ducks' Ray Emery posted a 89.7% save rate, while Vezina finalist Pekka Rinne (another accurate prediction) underperformed with a borderline-terrible 87.6%

Eastern Conference

#1 Washington vs. #8 NY Rangers

This is the only series winner from the East SOGD correctly predicted. Washington won in 5, though had it not been for the Rangers blowing a 3-0 lead in Game 4, the "Washington in 6" might have been a third series predicted accurately.

Despite the talk in the mainstream sports media about how dangerous the Washington Capitals offense is, it was actually pretty quiet against New York. Washington had a little better than one-shot-per-game average over New York. It was actually buoyed by the goaltending of Michal Neuwirth, posting an NHL second-best save percentage of 94.7%. New York's shooting percentage was a pathetic 5.4% (tied for worst in the first round).

On the other side of the rink, Henrik Lundqvist saved an OK (but pretty low for him) 91.7% Washington shot only 8.3%.

#2 Philadelphia vs. #7 Buffalo

Both the official Steeltown Sports pick and the little off-shoot experiment we're running here predicted a 7-game series. The experiment picked the right team.

The Flyers had a slightly higher team save percentage than Buffalo (91.5% vs. 91.2%), but the surprise was that Buffalo only outshot the Flyers in game 3, despite the season differential being in the Sabres favor.

#3 Boston vs. #6 Montreal

Classic, classic, classic.

Any series that goes the distance, and then some, is worth the price of admission.

It wasn't the lowest-scoring series of all time, and perhaps there were a few more goals than expected in a couple of games, but the final four games were decided by a single goal, and three of those took extra time to decide.

Neutral hockey fans, rejoice.

Once again, as with the PHI/BUF series, the Bruins had the better of the Shots-on-Goal battle overall (running counter to the regular season trend), and with comparable goalie play by both teams, the two-shots-per-game advantage the Bruins enjoyed were just enough.

#4 Pittsburgh vs #5 Tampa Bay

Yes, the pick here was Pens in 7. But I had a ton of caveats with it, saying such precient things as:

Pittsburgh can certainly win this series, but it's gonna be a white-knuckler.

And the winner looks like it has a very good chance to play for Lord Stanley's Cup.

And...

Goaltender Dwayne Roloson, who was cruelly denied a Stanley Cup when he was injured in Game One of what turned out to be a seven-game series loss for his then-Edmonton Oilers to the Carolina Hurricanes, has one more push to make.

And did he ever push. How about a first-round best save percentage of 94.9%, limiting the Penguins to an abysmal 5.4% shooting percentage (tied with the Rangers), allowing his team to rally from a 3-games-to-1 series deficit.

The Penguins, despite being equal with Tampa in the SOGD department for the season, outshot the Bolts in every game, firing at the net a first-round high 257 times. Tampa shot 77 fewer shots (an advantage for the Penguins of +11), and only Roloson's superhuman effort allowed his team to advance.

Some critics complain that it was Pittsburgh settling for low percentage shots much of the time, but they fail to remember things like the low-percentage shot that ultimately won the Stanley Cup for the Blackhawks last year, and, to a lesser extent, the gold medal for Canada in the Winter Olympic games.

The system is correct. As a Penguin fan, I have no real complaints. It was a merely a mixture of lack of execution and a gargantuan effort by an athlete who knows his days in the sport are numbered.

Marc-Andre Fleury needed to be a bit more consistent, in the middle games, too. Despite a shutout in Game 1, and a competitive 95.7% save percentage in Game 7, his average for the series was 89.9%.

That said, I still credit Dwayne Roloson, more than scorn Marc-Andre Fleury for Tampa's triumph.

Now to the next round...

Western Conference

#1 Vancouver vs. #5 Nashville

The only interest I have in this series is to find out of Pekka Rinne can find the skill set that made him a Vezina candidate, because the other side of the ice features fellow candidate (and perennial candidate) Roberto Luongo.

Vancouver's positive SOGD vs. Nashville's negative pretty much tells me that the Predators' party is just about over. For those prediting a Vancouver appearance in the Stanley Cup, this match-up buoys it because San Jose and Detroit are likely to destroy each other in other other Western Conference Semifinal.

Shots on Goal Differential says Vancouver in 5 (official pick) - and for giggles we're going to predict the Preds win game 3

The experimental SOGD with Save Percentage says Vancouver in 6.

#2 San Jose vs. #3 Detroit

Lovers of high-scoring hockey are going to need to change pants often during this series. Detroit has a high shooting percentage, and the Sharks actually put the puck on net with more frequency. There might be a couple of games in this series where the finals resemble first quarter scores in the National Football League (when they play).

If San Jose goaltender Antti Niemi doesn't push his statistics back up to an average level, Detroit may advance, despite San Jose's fairly significant SOGD advantage this season.

SOGD says San Jose in 6. (official pick)

Experiment says San Jose in 6. (dangerous when they agree in round 1...)

Eastern Conference

#1 Washington vs. #5 Tampa Bay

There is a deceptive amount of experience on this Tampa Bay team. Many of these folks have been making playoff runs long before the lockout of a few years ago. Being tested against a Penguin team whose system is almost enough to get by without a superstar now go against a team whose system, while improved, is not on the same level.

Washington is just happy to have avoided a first-round let down. I think Dwayne Roloson will have an easier time of it, whereas Michal Neuwirth will get a rude awakening to the second round. This Lightning team is for real.

SOGD says Tampa Bay in 6. (official pick)

Experiment says (when adjusting Tampa's save percentage slightly for Roloson's addition) Capitals in 6.

Did I mention that I kind of hate what the experiment predicts sometimes?

#2 Philadelphia vs. #3 Boston

Two teams just happy to be here after trailing in their respective first round series and each having to play a decider at home.

Philly is the defending Eastern Conference Champions, and Boston is the expert-predicted 2011 Eastern Conference Champions (but not by me).

Both teams like it rough. Both teams shoot a bunch. Both teams allow other teams to shoot a bunch. Old-time hockey fans should enjoy this one, top to bottom.

Bruins goalie Tim Thomas cannot afford to take a step back if his team is to advance.

SOGD says Flyers in 5. (official pick)

Experiment says Bruins in 6.

With the way things are, I expect the winner of San Jose/Detroit to play for the Cup as they were supposed to meet in the Western Conference Final...but Chicago's loss to Vancouver flipped the script (still predicting the Sharks, though). The East is more wide-open, though I think the Lightning showed people a lot of what they didn't expect. San Jose over Tampa Bay is how it looks to me right now.

Your comments, as well as your own predictions, are welcome.

#198: Do You Feel a Draft?

2011-04-23T10:36:00.002-04:00

---SSL Broadcast #38---

Click the banner above for Sports Events International. You can attend Penguins postseason games at Consol Energy Center, get prime seats for Pittsburgh Power games, or tickets for big-draw Pirate games like Skyblast. SEI can not only get you into the game, but get you up close. Click now. Tell 'em you heard about them from Steeltown Mike.

First, I apologize for having no recording last week. We had a power outage hit the station with about 3 seconds left on my intro, and we had to run on auxiliary power, which took about 8 minutes to get up and running. The auxiliary power only gets the soundboard up and microphone up and running, but not the CD recorder. There was a show, but it was fairly rushed and haphazard, so, if you weren't listening live (over the air, because the internet feed was down, too), you didn't miss much.

What else is new?

This week's show -

- The Pirates, despite a quasi-encouraging start, are doing no better or worse on average than all the other Pirate teams from 1993 and onward.

- I tried to avoid talking about the NFL draft for a number of reasons, but decided at the last minute I should opine about which way the Steelers should go.

- The Penguins can wrap up their first round series with a Game 5 victory Saturday afternoon.

- Snippits from the Power and the Pitt Panthers basketball program, and the weekly rundown.

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#197: NHL Playoff Preview

2011-04-10T14:15:00.005-04:00

---2010-2011 Edition---

I'll try yet again to be an outstanding prognosticator of the NHL Postseason. Last year didn't go quite as smoothly, but mainly due to a guy named "Jaroslav Halak." Fortuantely, he plays for the St. Louis Blues this year, and they're not in the tournament (though statistically, maybe they should be...), so he can't ruin it.

Last year's record using the "Shots on Goal Differential" (of "SOGD") comparison: 10-5 (.667). The year before was one game better.

What I'm looking forward to in this postseason is a far more wide-open tournament. There are people talking about all sorts of different teams to win it all. Vancouver has the this year's President's Trophy-winning team, and it wasn't even close (for all the good it did Washington last year...). San Jose seems to have found a solution in goal with 2010 Cup-winning goalie Antti Niemi, who was jettisoned by Chicago. Philadelphia is out to defend its Eastern Conference crown. The Penguins nearly managed to win the Atlantic Division despite not having Sidney Crosby or Evgeni Malkin for half the season. Washington is surging. Anaheim is surging. Tampa Bay can score, and on it goes.

However, San Jose (currently my prohibitive favorite to win it all) has the best SOGD in the league (+5.6). This is actually pretty low when you take into account recent years.

Last year, Chicago led the league in that statistic (+9.0 - won the Cup). The three years previous, it was Detroit: +8.4 in '08-'09 - Cup runner-up; +10.9 in '07-'08 - Cup winner; and +9.2 in '06-'07 - slain by Anaheim's goalie J.S. Giguere.

The Sharks' season-leading regular season SOGD is nearly 3 shots per game less than Detroit's "worst" showing over that stretch.

In other words, this year is practically wide open, and there should be plenty of exciting, long series (of course, I said that last year and wasn't quite right...). Nevertheless, I'm highly anticipating using the Shots-on-Goal formula to see if it can predict series upwards of 66.7% again.

I still have not determined a way to figure out when a goalie is primed to counter the differential. As has been said here for a couple years, the only thing that truly defeats a significant Shots-on-Goal Differential advantage over the course of a best-of-seven series is a hot goaltender. Still, we're going to base predictions two different ways and see which is more likely to bear fruit.

That said, all official predictions will be based on the old SOGD formula, but we'll keep track of the save percentages.

A friend of mine is convinced that taking a 5-on-5 Shots on Goal differential average for the season is an even better way than taking into account all shots, but I am not yet convinced. I'll see how this year plays out before I start tinkering with that.

Below is how each team finished the regular season in their respective conferences. Next to each team is its season-long SOGD. Next to the playoff teams only, in parentheses, is the save percentage of each team, which will be used as a tiebreaker if the SOGD are comparable.

Eastern Conference
1. Washington +2.3 (.920)
2. Philadelphia +1.6 (.913)
3. Boston +0.2 (.930)
4. Pittsburgh +3.1 (.916)
5. Tampa Bay +3.1 (.901)
6. Montreal +0.8 (.919)
7. Buffalo +2.1 (.909)
8. NY Rangers +0.5 (.919)
====================================
9. Carolina -2.5
10. Toronto -2.2
11. New Jersey +2.3
12. Atlanta -0.9
13. Ottawa -2.2
14. NY Islanders -2.6
15. Florida -1.4

Western Conference
1. Vancouver +1.9 (.927)
2. San Jose +5.6 (.912)
3. Detroit +3.1 (.906)
4. Anaheim -3.8 (.912)
5. Nashville -1.8 (.924)
6. Phoenix -2.3 (.918)
7. Los Angeles +0.9 (.914)
8. Chicago +3.4 (.907)
====================================
9. Dallas -3.0
10. Calgary +2.0
11. St Louis +2.5
12. Minnesota -5.8
13. Columbus +0.7
14. Colorado -2.6
15. Edmonton -5.1

Every team in the Eastern Conference has a shot, as they are all in the positive.

Remember, only two teams since 1990 have won the Stanley Cup with a negative SOGD. The 1990-1991 Penguins (acquired face-off man Ron Francis and fearsome defenseman Ulf Samuelsson at the trade deadline...not enough to push the season average into the positive), and the 2008-2009 Penguins (switched coaches - and therefore changed to a Shots-on-Goal system - with only two months to go in the regular season).

From the Western Conference, we can ultimately eliminate Anaheim, Nashville and Phoenix at some point. At least one team will advance to round two because Anaheim and Nashville play each other in the first round.

Western Conference

#1 Vancouver vs. #8 Chicago

Using SOGD, it appears that Chicago is going to win for the third straight year.

Throwing in save percentages from both teams, and calculating them both against how many shots their own team gives up -and- how many shots the other team generates, it looks like Vancouver will have the edge after all.

Chicago shots allowed per game (28.7) times Chicago's save percentage (.907) = number of saves per game expected (26).

Using that formula, Vancouver looks to average 2.7 goals per game (28.7 - 26).

I also took number of shots Vancouver takes per game (32.0) times Chicago's save percentage (.907) = number of Chicago saves expected per game (29).

That way, Vancouver is primed for closer to 3 goals per game (32.0 - 29).

Reversing the data, using Vancouver's save rate (.927) against both number of shots Vancouver allows (30.1) and number of shots Chicago takes (28.7) yields between 2.1 and 2.2 goals allowed per game.

SOGD says Chicago in 6. (official Steeltown Sports prediction)

SOGD with save calculations says Vancouver in 6.

Oh, fun.

#2 San Jose vs. #7 Los Angeles

This might be San Jose's best team in years. L.A., meanwhile, is without superstar Anze Kopitar.

SOGD says San Jose in 5. (official pick)

SOGD with save percentage seems to say San Jose in 6.

#3 Detroit vs. #6 Phoenix

Another rematch from last year, and fans in Phoenix are probably looking forward to it. However, this year's Phoenix squad isn't nearly as fearsome as last year's. Then again, neither is this year's Detroit team. But this time around, home ice belongs to the Red Wings.

SOGD says Detroit in 4. (official pick)

SOGD with save percentage seems to say Phoenix in 7.

The more I do this, the more ridiculous this second approach seems. Then again, the Red Wings in four was last year's pick, and the Coyotes took it to 7 before succumbing, so maybe it's worth watching, just this once...

#4 Anaheim vs. #5 Nashville

Nashville isn't as good as it was last year statistically - though goaltender Pekka "Could-I-Be-Any-More-Finnish?" Rinne should be a Vezina nominee - and Anaheim is vastly overrated. Something has to give. Both teams are in the negative on SOGD, so the winner doesn't look to advance to the Conference Finals.

SOGD says Nashville should win in 6. (official pick)

SOGD with save percentage says Predators in 7.

Eastern Conference

#1 Washington vs. #8 NY Rangers

Washington is back with home ice advantage through the Eastern Conference playoffs.

However, this year, the Capitals aren't saddled with the mile-high expectations they had last year when they just crushed everyone and had everything locked up early. They've dealt with injuries this year and stiff competition from Tampa Bay...and even the rest of their division to a point.

And, believe it or not, their SOGD statistic is actually better this year.

The Rangers, after just barely missing the postseason party last year and just barely squeaking in after the statistically inferior Carolina Hurricanes coughed up their chance in their season finale, are just happy to be here.

The Capitals lost to the Montreal Canadiens in the first round last year in the most colossal upset in recent NHL history, blowing a 3-1 series lead. The year before, the Caps were able to -erase- a 3-1 deficit to these same Rangers.

SOGD says Washington in 6. (official pick)

SOGD with save percentages - Washington in 6. (wouldn't that be interesting if that actually worked out?)

#2 Philadelphia vs. #7 Buffalo

The Flyers find themselves on the other side of the #2/#7 showdown this year, after managing to win the Eastern Conference out of the next-to-last slot last season.

They are actually not as strong this year in the SOGD department, and there is no team in the negative, so a return to the conferences pinnacle appears to be more difficult.

Buffalo, meanwhile, has also actually improved in their differential, despite not winning their division like they did last year. Philadelphia will need to have solid goaltending in this one to escape.

SOGD says Sabres in 7.

SOGD with save percentage says Flyers in 7.

(If nothing else, perhaps we can figure out a better way to determine the length of a series?)

#3 Boston vs. #6 Montreal

Prepare for a low-scoring series here. As a hockey fan who loves low-scoring tilts, this might be my series to watch. Of course, this series is also the most likely to be filled with a number of fights...at which time it will cease to be my series to watch. Both teams have had excellent goaltending this year (especially Boston).

The Bruins shoot a lot, but allow a lot of shots in return (read: a more wide-open style of hockey). Montreal doesn't shoot as much, but doesn't give up as much.

SOGD predicts Montreal in 7. (official pick)

SOGD w/ S% indicates Boston in 6.

#4 Pittsburgh vs #5 Tampa Bay

A lot of folks are sitting here in the Steel City area saying, "Tampa Bay is a good draw for the Penguins. Too bad about not being able to catch Philadelphia, but this is a great match-up."

The organization that was once referred to as Pittsburgh-South, as several Penguins found their way there over the semi-recent years (including Ryan Malone, Gary Roberts, Michel Oullet, Adam Hall, and even Mark Recchi), is still regarded as a somewhat inferior organization that had their heyday the year before the infamous lockout.

The truth is, this Lightning squad could take a significant step toward a Stanley Cup birth with a series win over the Penguins (especially if Sidney Crosby does not return for Round One).

The Pens and the Bolts are tied for the best SOGD in the East (only San Jose and Chicago are better, and Detroit is tied with them).

Goaltender Dwayne Roloson, who was cruelly denied a Stanley Cup when he was injured in Game One of what turned out to be a seven-game series loss for his then-Edmonton Oilers to the Carolina Hurricanes, has one more push to make. His presence has already rescued the team save percentage from sub-.900.

Pittsburgh, meanwhile, finally appears to have figured out how to win without either of its two superstars (Crosby and Evegni Malkin) after half a season. They still have to get production from two of their main trade deadline acquisitions, James Neal and Alexei Kovalev. And even the goaltending has improved from last year (up to .916 from .900).

Pittsburgh can certainly win this series, but it's gonna be a white-knuckler.

And the winner looks like it has a very good chance to play for Lord Stanley's Cup.

SOGD is identical, so... using the save percentage as a tie-breaker says Penguins in seven. (official pick)

Actually running the SOGD through the save percentage calculator says Penguins in 6 (would have been 5, except Roloson has helped pull Tampa's save percentage up).

If all the official picks would happen to come through, I would foresee San Jose over Detroit in the Western Final, and Pittsburgh defeating Washington in the East. The Sharks would claim the Cup over the Pens. And this is all in the crystal ball without Sid the Kid.

Visit again for the second round preview, and, by all means, feel free to comment constructively and/or give your predictions.

#196: Down with the Sickness

2011-04-09T10:43:00.002-04:00

---SSL Broadcast #36---

Click the banner above for Sports Events International. You can attend Penguins postseason games at Consol Energy Center, get prime seats for Pittsburgh Power games, or tickets for big-draw Pirate games like Skyblast. SEI can not only get you into the game, but get you up close. Click now.

It took 36 weeks, but I finally forgot to start recording my show at the very top and didn't notice until I was nearly through the first commercial break. As such, the only segment of the show that I would have considered "quality" is lost to the ages. The good news is that you don't have to listen to me as long this week.

I've also been wrestling with an upper respiratory infection all damn week.

That said, there's a pretty good ramble on how hard this NHL Postseason is going to be to call. I plan to do my annual "Shots on Goal Differential" playoff breakdown here on this blog by Sunday evening or Monday afternoon at the latest. This year, we'll try to see if we can find a way to determine which goalie(s) will become "hot."

Other topics on the latest show:

- Pirates are 5-3 to start 2011. Believe it or not, they were 4-4 eight games in the past two seasons. Still, there is a statistical instability that indicates the pitching staff is about to fall apart.

- Some NCAA tournament talk. One part that didn't get recorded was me bragging up predicting Connecticut to win it all from the outset of the tournament, but pretty much going .500 in my bracket. The bragging...and the not recording... karma in advance?

- Power player in trouble with the law.

- Are we still talking about the NFL?

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#195: Say What?

2011-04-03T17:26:00.003-04:00

---Mystery Baseball Theater---

I couldn't let this go. Yahoo! cracks me up from time to time. This would have qualified for the short-lived WTF of the Week...

(Also, click the banner above for Sports Events International. You can attend the Penguins home finale on Tuesday against the Devils (sold out), Opening Day at PNC Park (sold out), or one of the first two playoff games at Consol Energy Center (pretty sure those are sold out, too). SEI can not only get you into the game, but get you up close. Click now.)

He what huh? With a...what now?

To be continued...?

#194: Bucs Opening Day a Blast

2011-04-02T10:36:00.002-04:00

---SSL Broadcast #35---

Click the banner above for Sports Events International. You can attend the Penguins home finale on Tuesday against the Devils (sold out), Opening Day at PNC Park (sold out), or one of the first two playoff games at Consol Energy Center (pretty sure those are sold out, too). SEI can not only get you into the game, but get you up close. Click now.

Topics on the latest show:

- Pirates open with a win for the fifth straight year. Not necessarily a great sign considering how the last four seasons went (or the 14 before that...)

- Penguins have had trouble beating playoff contenders in regulation since captain Sidney Crosby was concussed.

- NFL and players union awaiting a ruling by a federal judge on legitimacy of antitrust lawsuit.

- Pick to win the NCAA Championship. And it's the one picked prior to the start of the tourney.

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#193: Gearing Up

2011-03-26T10:26:00.002-04:00

---SSL Broadcast #34---

The Penguins and Flyers play at Consol Energy Center on Tuesday in a showdown that COULD be for first place. It's going to be a hard and expensive seat to get. But you can get tickets (without all those annoying convenience charges) if you click on the banner for Sports Events International. And don't forget, the Pirates home opener is coming up.

Topics on the latest show:

- Interview with Pirates Broadcaster Greg Brown, complete with a brief cell phone disconnect and dial tone. You can't write comedy this good.

- Penguins went 3-1 this week, including three straight shoot-out wins, and the 10-17 game suspension of forward Matt Cooke is appropriate, if not a little light.

- Pittsburgh Power wins its first game as a franchise.

- Pitt Panthers bow early to Butler, but Butler was never a pushover candidate.

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#192: Mad March

2011-03-19T10:42:00.002-04:00

---SSL Broadcast #33---

If you haven't done so already, please click on the banner for Sports Events International. If you need tickets to a hard-to-get-into sports, theater or concert event, SEI should be your first stop, because it will often be your last. Pirates home opener? Pittsburgh Penguins? Power? They're your source.

Topics on this show:

- How are you doing on your bracket? Probably better than Steeltown Mike.

- Penguins went 2-1 this week, but beat up on the NHL doormats and got shut out by the lone contender they faced.

- Pirates (not surprisingly) sputter in spring training.

- AFL needs to capitalize on the NFL lockout to increase popularity.

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#191: Power Failure

2011-03-12T10:53:00.002-05:00

---SSL Broadcast #32---

Once again, please click on the banner for my fine sponsor, Sports Events International. If you need tickets to a hard-to-get-into sports, theater or concert event, SEI should be your first stop, because it will often be your last.

Topics on this show:

- The NFL Players Union and the League have entered a work stoppage. It won't end soon

- Pitt one-and-done for 3rd year in a row in the Big East Tournament

- Penguins still have a shot at the Eastern Conference Top Seed, but don't get your hopes up

- Pittsburgh Power fizzles in overtime against Soul

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#190: No Title (?)

2011-03-05T10:34:00.003-05:00

---SSL Broadcast #31---

(EDIT: I just realized one week later that I didn't have a title next to #190...sheesh)

First of all, please click on the banner for my fine sponsor, Sports Events International. If you need tickets to a hard-to-get-into sports, theater or concert event, SEI should be your first stop, because it will often be your last.

Topics on this show:

- The NFL Players Union and the League have agreed to extend bargaining for a week, but a lockout/strike is inevitable

- Chronic Traumatic Encephalopathy

- Pitt football having the most players with police run-ins should not be the main story.

- Good News/Bad News with Pitt Basketball

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#189: Let the (Spring Training) Games Begin

2011-02-26T10:38:00.002-05:00

---SSL Broadcast #30---

First of all, please click on the banner for my fine sponsor, Sports Events International. If you need tickets to a hard-to-get-into sports, theater or concert event, SEI should be your first stop, because it will often be your last.

Topics on the show:

- Listen for the epic editing gaffe (or NON-editing gaffe) in the intro. I could have fixed it for the archive, but it's just too good to be true.

- Penguins will be formidable in the playoffs because of Bylsma's puck-possession system. How much do they need Crosby?

- Pitt basketball round-up.

- Pirates clobber college team, await first Major League Spring Training opponent.

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#188: Lockout Imminent

2011-02-19T10:54:00.002-05:00

---SSL Broadcast #29---

Topics on the show:

- NFL vs. Players Union. Neither side wants an agreement.

- Mario Lemieux speaks out against fighting in hockey...but has an instigator in his own house.

- Pitt can't look past giant-killer St. Johns. Especially at Madison Square Garden.

- Some Pirate notes as Spring Training gets underway.

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#187: Stuck on Six

2011-02-12T10:59:00.002-05:00

---SSL Broadcast #28---

I'm pretty sure that the police code for an unauthorized life termination is "187", so I guess that's appropriate for the post which follows the Pittsburgh Steelers loss to the Green Bay Packers in Super Bowl XLV.

Topics on the show:

- Who is the scapegoat for the Steelers' loss? Is there even a clear winner?

- Crosby should take as much time as he needs to recover from his concussion.

- Pitt is in for a very tough time against Villanova on the hardwood.

- Final score for NFL picks made on the air, after picking the Packers to cover the 2.5 point spread: 23 Right, 22 Wrong. Still abysmal, but at least it's over 50% (that still fails in school).

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#186: Game On

2011-02-05T10:44:00.002-05:00

---SSL Broadcast #27---

It all comes down to one game. At least for this year. Before I go into this week's broadcast...

I received an e-mail this week from a group that produces Bhangra-style music (region of India). They're called BlackMahal and they produced a video for a song called "Black, Gold, and Silver". I presume the "silver" represents the Lombardi trophy. The music is not for all tastes (I enjoy it, personally), but the video... Oh, it's worth it just to see the video footage of the late Myron Cope in the M.C. Hammer pants. Double Yoi.

Now, to this week's show. What could it possibly be about?

- Steelers and Packers, for all the marbles.

- Quickies with Pitt, WVU, Pirates and Penguins.

- Plentiful phone calls and a few caller predictions.

- The last NFL Pick. I am honestly surprised how many people have asked me in advance for my pick. I didn't know I was that popular, especially after a 22-22 record on the air for the season (including playoffs) for the year (pretty pathetic, in my opinion). So, just one pick to finish the year a winner. One pick to rule them all, one pick to find them... Uhm... Never mind...

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#185: Calm Before the 'Bowl

2011-01-29T11:26:00.003-05:00

---SSL Broadcast #26---

That's right. Half a year of doing this in consecutive weeks. I can tell you that having the hometown football team in the postsesaon making a Super Bowl run helps immensely.

- Steelers Rev'n for Seven after win over Jets.

- Green Bay stands in their way.

- Dutch Wydo joins in studio with some preliminary analysis.

- NFL Picks. I went 1-1 (Bears and Steelers) in the previous round. That makes my record on the year 22-22 on the year overall. That's not great. But that means the entire season being a winning or losing on hinges on my Super Bowl pick (vs. spread). Yeah, that comes next week.

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#184: Conference Championship Weekend

2011-01-22T10:52:00.004-05:00

---SSL Broadcast #26---

That's right. Half a year of doing this in consecutive weeks. I can tell you that having the hometown football team in the postsesaon making a Super Bowl run helps immensely.

- Steelers v Jets. Part 2.

- Dutch Wydo joins in to handicap both conference tilts.

- Some love for Mike Tomlin as a coach.

- Quick hits with the Penguins and Pitt athletics.

- NFL Conference Picks. Producer Jerome Shell III joins in after going 2-2 vs. the spread in the Divisional round. I went 3-1 vs the spread. The way this season's gone, I'll go 1-1 this week, and the entire season will come down to the Super Bowl. No pressure...

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#183: Divisional Round 2011

2011-01-15T10:59:00.002-05:00

---SSL Broadcast #25---

Perhaps the fastest-moving episode of the lot. And how could it not be? The NFL Playoffs are starting reach a fever pitch.

- Steelers v Ravens. Part 3. Again.

- Dutch Wydo joins in for a segment breaking down the clash of the titans.

- Quick hits with the Penguins and Pitt athletics.

- NFL Divisional Picks. Producer Jerome Shell III joins in after going 2-2 vs. the spread in the Wild Card round. I went 1-3. Can't catch a break. I hope I go 0-4 this week, truthfully, because that means teams I want to win will.

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#182: Wild Card Weekend 2011

2011-01-08T10:38:00.003-05:00

---SSL Broadcast #24---

I can't believe it's been almost six months since I took over the 9AM slot. I don't think anyone else has noticed, either.

- Steelers gamble to start Troy Polamalu & keep Big Ben in the game long after it was decided pays off.

- Random snippits from the rest of Pittsburgh sports, including a quick wrapup of the NHL Winter Classic.

- A quick NFL Wild Card preview, along with...

- NFL Wild Card Picks. Producer Jerome Shell III joins in with his opinions as I try to rise above the mean. In the regular season, I went 8-9 in the Steeler slot (again, the 17th game being the Baltimore-over-Denver pick I made during Pittsburgh's bye week). This latest loss was counting on Cleveland to make things interesting. Thankfully, despite my pick, they did not. My other Play of the Week went 9-8 after Houston did more than cover 2.5 against Jacksonville. 17-17 on the season. Here's guessing that I go 2-2 this week in my picks (this prediction will not count toward the final tally).

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#181: Happy 2011!

2011-01-01T10:37:00.003-05:00

---Starting Off Strong---

The first "Steeltown Sports: Live" of 2011 features:

- Steelers should dress Troy Polamalu, but not play him unless the game in Cleveland is in jeopardy: the bye week is that important.

- NFL picks three Steelers for the ProBowl and tries to list the top 10 Steelers of all time.

- NHL Winter Classic talk (though not much).

- NFL Picks of the Week. The Steeler picks are 8-8 entering after they failed to cover (and failed to win) vs. the Jets and succeeded in crushing the Panthers by more than 15. As far as the Steelers themselves are concerned, I'm 7-8, the extra game, of course, being the Baltimore-over-Denver pick during Pittsburgh's bye week. My Play of the Week outside of Pittsburgh is also at 8-8 following a miss with the Cowboys failing to cover 7.5 against Rex Grossman-led Washington and a hit with the Saints winning outright in Atlanta.

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#180: Weekly Picks

2010-12-23T18:29:00.003-05:00

---In Absentia---

Since there is no "Steeltown Sports: Live" broadcast this week, I have to make the picks so that, no matter how horrendous my picks have been this year.

No analysis needed here. Steelers should annihilate Carolina if they are to have any hope of being a Super Bowl contender. Otherwise, they'll be one-and-done.

Steelers -14.5

(edit Sunday 12/26/10 @ 8:45PM)

Oops. Totally forgot about this until now. Just as well, I probably would have missed the pick as I had another bad one. That just pigeon-holes me into the Monday night or Tuesday night game.

I don't trust games played in wind or snow insofar as spread is concerned. Throw in the extra wrinkle that Philadelphia has clinched the NFC East and they might be motivated for trying to get a first round bye, but even against this vastly underachieving Minnesota Vikings team, a 13.5 point spread is something I don't want to mess with.

The other game isn't much clearer. Atlanta is not statistically sound enough to be 12-2. Meanwhile, New Orleans has been a little worse. No Super Bowl hangover here, that's for sure.

When push comes to shove, the stats SHOULD even out. Even Falcons fans should be cheering to lose, because without coming back to Earth a little bit, Atlanta will be ripe for a divisional round exit.

Saints +2.5

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#179: SSL Broadcast #22

2010-12-18T10:55:00.004-05:00

---Auld Lang Syne---

The final "Steeltown Sports: Live" of 2010 features:

- Steelers in some trouble with Troy Polamalu potentially being out for the remainder of the season and the offensive line being the worst in the league.

- Special guest Dutch Wydo joins in.

- NFL Picks of the Week. The Steeler picks are 6-8 entering after they covered -8.5points, thanks to two pick-sixes (as a Steeler fan, I'll take a win by any amount, but the picks are hemmoraging) and POTW 7-7 after the Eagles won...but not by the 4 points needed for the cover. This is my worst year EVER picking NFL games...both spread and straigh up...

- Next week, I plan to post my thoughts for the week here in blog form, as well as my Week 16 NFL picks, as there will be no SSL program due to Christmas.

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#178: Dec 11 Weeklies

2010-12-11T10:54:00.004-05:00

---SSL #21, and WTFotW---

First, the archived broadcast from this Saturday. I did not make predictions this week on the air (ran out of time). The weekly picks will made exclusively here, and will count (for better or for worse) toward the final standings.

The show topics include:

- Steelers in the drivers seat in AFC North, but at a price. They must also watch out in the ultimate trap game.

- Pirates have made ZERO progress, as expected.

- Penguins, Pitt, and even a little boxing.

- NFL Picks of the Week. The Steeler picks are 6-7 entering after they covered +2.5 (even though I predicted they would lose by 1 or 2...so it's still a win) and POTW 7-6 after the Bears were unable to cover 5.5 they were given vs. Detroit.

THIS WEEK'S PICKS, exclusive to the blog.

Steelers: Steelers will not cover the 9.5 points they are favored by. Weather will play a factor, and I'm not convinced that the Steelers aren't looking ahead to the Jets next week. Cincy will keep it close in a low-scoring affair.

Rest of the NFL: Eagles -3.5 at Dallas. Always risky to make a picks of a divisional road favorite, but this looks like a bad matchup for Big D. (also considered taking Bears +3, Washington PK, and Rams +9.5). Have a hard time believing in any of those 3 teams right now, though).

Now, to the final What the @*#$ of the Week. This short-lived feature will be retired.

Big Ben puts forth a gargantuan effort, playing through a foot injury and suffering a broken nose. The nose was shattered to the point where a doctor said that the bones "looked like corn flakes."

Initially, they told sideline reporters that the nose wasn't broken. Yeah, right.

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#177: Dec 4 Weeklies

2010-12-04T11:36:00.003-05:00

---SSL #20, and WTFotW---

First, the archived broadcast from this Saturday.

The show topics include:

- James Harrison is running out of ways to attack the opposing QB.

- Sidney Crosby has caught fire as the Pens go for their 9th win in a row.

- Steelers at a disadvantage vs. Baltimore.

- NFL Picks of the Week. The Steeler picks are now 5-7 after they fail to cover the spread against Buffalo (4-7 vs. Steeler spreads, due to the 1 pick I made in their stead during the bye week) and POTW 6-6 after the Seahawks fail to deliver on the "light home underdog" trend.

Now, to the What the @*#$ of the Week:

You may have heard of this before.

"Every spring, the citizens of Gloucestershire throw a wheel of cheese down Cooper Hill and chase after it. The winner of the race gets to keep the cheese. Due to hill’s steepness, the wheel can reach speeds up to 70mph, injuring many racers along the way. Safety concerns like this led the 2010 race to be cancelled."

I'm surprised Wisconsin didn't think of it first.

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#176: Nov 27 Weeklies

2010-11-27T11:28:00.003-05:00

---SSL #19, and WTFotW---

First, the archived broadcast from this Saturday.

The show topics include:

- Pitt meltdown in "Backyard Maul" could lead to Dave Wannestedt's ouster.

- Pirates say goodbye to a long-time player (relatively speaking).

- Pens surging now because of their goalie.

- Steelers still not looking very quality, despite big win vs. Oakland.

- NFL Picks of the Week. Again, the Steeler picks are now 5-6 after covering 7 (and then some vs. Oakland) and POTW 6-5 after the Browns fail to hold a late road lead. Seriously, how many wins can the Jaguars manage with the worst Yards Per Play differential in the league?

Now, to the What the @*#$ of the Week:

Two of the recent WTFs have been centered around women's tennis. Well, apparently, there's another women's sport (and there's a men's division, too) that's off the wall. Or off the shoe.

Meet: Toe Wrestling

I wonder if they could popularize this in the waiting areas of spas or nail salons...

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#175: More Weeklies

2010-11-21T16:34:00.003-05:00

---SSL #18, and WTFotW---

It's probably more efficient to combine these two elements into one post. Warning: The WTFotW is tennis-related again.

This past week's show topics include:

- Steelers perform complete meltdown vs. Patriots. Who's to blame? The callers come out with some good theories.

- Pens hitting a hot streak, their goaltender is hitting an inconsistent streak, but that's an improvement.

- A quickie re: both Pitt men's programs playing now.

- The weekly Rundown segment.

- NFL Picks of the Week. Entering the week, the Steeler picks are 5-5 after the Steelers failed to win, let alone cover (and because my Baltimore pick in Week 5 was subbing for the Steeler bye) and 6-4 on the Pick of the Week as the Broncos won outright. By a bunch. Posting this one day late, I'll clue you in that the Steeler picks are now 5-6 after covering 7 (and then some vs. Oakland) and POTW 6-5 after the Browns fail to hold a late road lead. Seriously, how many wins can the Jaguars manage with the worst Yards Per Play differential in the league?

Now, to the What the @*#$ of the Week:

My favorite women's tennis player (and current world #1) Caroline Wozniacki played a charity match in Belarus against Victoria Azarenka in the latter's home nation of Belarus to benefit underprivileged children. Even the Belorussian president got in on the act. Wozniacki pulled out all the stops.

Not quite as strange as a couple weeks ago at the WTA Championships, though.

Yeah, she's hot, all right...

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#174: Belated Weeklies

2010-11-16T21:04:00.003-05:00

---SSL #17, and WTFotW---

I'm combining last week's show and the WTF of the Week into one post. I was off in the Chicago area last week and wasn't able to post.

This week's show topics include:

- Steelers needed every single Cincinnati miscue to pull out a Monday Night Win.

- Fleury did his job vs. Tampa, but his defense made it easier. We need to see it again. And again.

- Big East should lose its automatic berth. It's a sad football conference.

- NFL Picks of the Week. Entering the week, my Steeler picks are 5-4 after the Steelers covered the spread (by 1) against the Bungles (and because my Baltimore pick in Week 5 was subbing for the Steeler bye) and 5-4 on the Pick of the Week as Baltimore took it too the Dolphins.

Now, to the other feature here at the blog (What the @*#$ of the Week), Manny Pacqiao, probably the greatest pound-for-pound boxer the world has ever seen, destroyed Antonio Margarito in a Saturday night bout. Margarito was apparently going for the Rocky special, trying to go the distance with Pacquiao, having his face transformed into ground beef in the process.

Now, it's being said that Margarito's right orbital is broken, and he might not be able to fight again. Margarito did get his wish, though, and went all 12 with his conqueror.

I hope, for his sake, that it was worth it...even though it was obvious that Pacquiao let up in the later rounds.

There is actually a pretty decent-looking guy under that mask...

Adrian!

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#173: WTFotW

2010-11-06T11:32:00.004-04:00

---Got Swamp Gas?---

Again, I almost thought I wasn't going to get a pic or story in for the What the F*** of the Week. But, I got lucky.

Last week, women's tennis star Kim Clijsters broke the sound barrier with her wicked forehand (or was it backhand?).

Men's tennis raised the bar. Apparently, they play in harsher conditions in Switzerland. Like, in thick swamp gas. Good luck judging the carom...if it doesn't just squish upon impact. And try not to breathe...

(Photo by Fabrice Coffrini/AFP)

Real men don't wear masks...

Seriously...WTF is that in the foreground?

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#172: Broadcast #16

2010-11-06T11:26:00.002-04:00

---SSL: November 6, 2010---

This week's show topics:

- Steelers loss more a case of fumble-itis and inconsistent play rather than Halloween spooks...but there was probably some karmic comeuppance, too.

- Pens are flat. Fleury is flat. Power play is flat. It's not good.

- Dutch Wydo joins as guest in his first WMBS appearance since the summer.

- NFL Picks of the Week. Entering the week, my Steeler picks are 5-3 after the Steelers loss to the Saints (and because my Baltimore pick in Week 5 was subbing for the Steeler bye) and 4-4 on the Pick of the Week as Mike Shanahan benched Donovan McNabb for friggin REX GROSSMAN to run a 2-minute drill.

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#171: Broadcast #15

2010-10-30T12:19:00.003-04:00

---SSL: October 30, 2010---

This week's show topics:

- Awful officiating benefits Steelers.

- A quick look ahead at the Steelers and Saints.

- A proposition for Fleury apologists as the Pens continue to struggle with him in net.

- NFL Picks of the Week. Entering the week, my Steeler picks are 4-3 after the Steelers did not cover 3 points (and because my Baltimore pick in Week 5 was subbing for the Steeler bye) and 4-3 on the Pick of the Week as Cleveland not only covered 2 touchdowns against New Orleans - the actually won.

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#170: WTFotW

2010-10-30T11:45:00.003-04:00

---Blurry---

Well, it's Saturday, so it still counts as the next week. Once again, I'll try to post a sports photo, or maybe a story, that just makes you say, "WTF?"

This week, highly-ranked women's tennis player Kim Clijsters of Belgium. Apparently, she was in a fender bender prior to her WTA Championship semi-final match with Australia's Samantha Stosur. And it seems that, although she was not injured, the accident has mutated Clijsters into a creature capable of moving faster than the speed of sports camera shutters.

(Photo by Karim Jaafar/AFP/Getty Images)

WTA beware...

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#169: Broadcast #14

2010-10-23T10:42:00.002-04:00

---SSL: October 23, 2010---

This week's show topics:

- Recap of Steelers/Browns game.

- NFL needs to be consistent with its punishment of helmet-to-helmet hits. I offer a suggestion.

- What Penguins goalie Marc-Andre Fleury's problem could be...one that maybe we hadn't considered.

- NFL Picks of the Week. Entering the week, my Steeler picks are 4-2 (because my Baltimore pick was subbing for the Steeler bye) and 3-3 on the Pick of the Week as a pass interference call aids the Jets, thwarting my Broncos pick.

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#168 - WTFotW

2010-10-21T20:57:00.004-04:00

---Touched---

Instead of just reposting my weekly sports talk show on WMBS-AM every week, I'll also try to find a picture or quote every week that just makes you scratch your head or LOL...perhaps even ROFL.

I seriously doubt with my posting track record since this blog's inception in 2006 that I'll even post again next week, but I couldn't let this go.

In this day and age, who at Yahoo! thought this was a good headline/teaser?

Sheesh...

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#167: Broadcast #13

2010-10-16T12:14:00.002-04:00

---SSL: October 16, 2010---

This week's show topics:

- Ben Roethlisberger will be at Heinz Field. As will a few protesters.

- Pirates managerial list is chalk full of more-o'-th'-same.

- Penguins offense carries some blame for their slow start, not just Marc-Andre Fleury.

- NFL Picks of the Week. Entering the week, my Steeler picks are 3-2 (because my Baltimore pick was subbing for the Steeler bye) and 3-2 on the Pick of the Week as the Redskins beat the Packers.

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#166: Broadcast #12

2010-10-09T10:49:00.002-04:00

---SSL: October 9, 2010---

This week's show topics:

- Steelers go 3-1 without Big Ben, but loss is to a division opponent. But the bye is coming at THE right time.

- An interview with Pirates broadcaster Tim Neverett, eulogizing the 57-105 Buccos.

- Pitt Panthers a 6-point underdog to Irish.

- Penguins have subpar opener, but it's just one game.

Last week, I did my show remotely (from Corning, Iowa; the birthplace of Johnny Carson) and it was not recorded. You'll have to take my word that I took the Ravens to win 13-9 (making me 2-2 on my Steeler picks on the year), and I took the Seahawks to cover 1.5 points on the road against the St. Louis Rams (making me 2-2 on my picks of the week, too).

Listen in to get my two picks this week (I subbed the Baltimore/Denver game for the Steeler game pick, since they have a bye).

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#165: Broadcast #10

2010-09-25T11:19:00.002-04:00

---SSL: September 25, 2010---

This week's show topics:

- Panthers have been an embarrassment on and off the field.

- Steelers are 2-0, but could be some problems in Tampa.

- Penguins are 2-0. But it's preseason. And the win against Detroit was second-rate.

- Pirates lose 100. Yay. But maybe some good news. I make a prediction for next season.

Also, 1-1 with regard to Steelers, and 1-1 on my NFL picks of the week.

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#164: Broadcast #9

2010-09-18T11:50:00.002-04:00

---SSL: September 18, 2010---

This week's show topics:

- Steelers are 1-0, but there are some problems. Just not really on defense.

- Panthers rap sheet getting to be about as long as an average run from Dion Lewis.

- Civic Arena faces demolition.

- Pirates will likely achieve a dubious distinction this week.

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#163: Steeltown Sports: Live #8

2010-09-11T10:52:00.004-04:00

---SSL: September 11, 2010---

It's the most wonderful time of the year.

Pro football season is back.

The quickest NFL football preview you've ever heard. Pretty much just picks and gut feelings.

Just wait 'til you hear my off-the-wall Super Bowl pick from the NFC... I can't believe it myself.

Also, a quick pick of the Steelers/Falcons game and a pick-of-the-week of sorts.

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#162: Seventh Broadcast

2010-09-04T10:56:00.002-04:00

---SSL: September 4, 2010---

No, I didn't forget to post last week's show.

It was just that bad. No one deserved to repeat that.

It's times like this that I'm glad I don't work for one of the major Pittsburgh sports stations, even the lowly-rated WBGG (Fox Sports affiliate)...which is pulling similar ratings to my humble WMBS: I simply haven't been able to watch much sports lately.

And by "lately," I mean it's probably been a good six months...at least...since I've devoted a measureable number of hours to watching games, crunching numbers, analyzing trends...

It's tough doing a 45-minute show, let alone a 4-hour one.

In any event, here is the latest show, talking about Steelers and (Pitt) Panthers for the most part, with some Pirates and the weekly "rundown" thrown in.

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#161: Fifth Broadcast

2010-08-21T11:11:00.002-04:00

---SSL: August 21, 2010---

Relive the fifth broadcast since the rebirth of "Steeltown Sports: Live!"

Gonna give myself some props here, though. Over two months ago, I made a prediction at the end of an entry as to when the Pirates would lose #82. I was a day early.

Now, the only "relevant" questions with the current Pirates team are:

Will the hitting significantly improve on its own as the young hitters grow together, or will only a new hitting coach do that trick?

Is RHP James McDonald the real deal, or is it just a case of the league needing to get more of a scouting report on him?

Will the Pirates hit more than 3 multi-run home runs during the season's remainder?

How long will it be before 2010 draftees Jameson Taillon and Stetson Allie make it to the mothership, and will they be as good as advertised?

Other than that, it's really hard to pay attention.

In the meantime, I'll venture a guess at when the Bucs will lose their 100th:

September 23, at home against the Cardinals.

Now, to the broadcast -

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#160: This Week's Broadcast

2010-08-14T11:14:00.002-04:00

---SSL: August 14, 2010---

For the few who missed it, and the even fewer who want to hear it again.

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#159: Today's Show, Plus More XL Idiocy

2010-08-07T10:42:00.004-04:00

---SSL: 8/7/10 + SBXL...Again---

First, the show from today. I make my first foray in to "hackdom" by mispronouncing a couple of names on the Penguins all-time team (Jean Provanost ... I didn't make the "st" silent ... and Vince Lascheid...small/faded print made me say "LaShield".)

Still, the highlight is probably the rant about Super Bowl XL referee Bill Leavy needlessly (and incorrectly) admitting remorse for his officiating. More on that in a sec.

Archived version of today's show here:

Now. Back to Leavy. Apparently, while he was visiting Seahawks camp for a rules interpretation meeting, he said he feels guilty about the fourth quarter of that game.

The only mistake he made was the low block call on Seattle QB Matt Hasselbeck.

Of course, perhaps it was his first visit to Seattle since the fateful game, and he didn't want to be lynched, so he confessed his "crimes." He certainly doesn't have any major reasons to honestly feel bad.

Steeler fans, and other unbiased folks who actually understand football, I implore you to bookmark the following website and send it to any Steeler hater or Seahawk fan who continues this baseless battle that officiating decided XL's outcome.

http://checkraise.com/rants2/archive3/xl.html

Excellent photo angles (for the most part) and solid points. The article's author even argues the validity of the low block call on Hasselbeck.

Most importantly, he acknowledges the ugly truth: The game sucked. It wasn't exciting. Both teams came out flat. With the exception of two or three big Steeler plays, they stayed flat. If the game had played out the same way, but the AFC representative had been the Cleveland Browns or the Houston Texans, there would not still be this outcry.

It should also be noted, that the NFL never sent an apology letter to the team admitting that mistakes were made. This has been done in the past, and the Steelers have even been recipients of such letters.

Finally, Mr. Leavy, I forgive you, because there's really nothing to forgive. Maybe you didn't see that illegal block in the back on Ben Roethlisberger as he moved to tackle Kelly Herndon following an interception.

Knowledgeable football fans absolve you. You were not responsible for Jerramy Stevens' stone hands, nor the Seahawks' incomprehensibly inept 2-minute drill. In either half.

It's just unfortunate that it was so terrible a game that it was the officiating that stood out.

#158: Rules of the Game

2010-08-04T01:49:00.003-04:00

---Weight of an Unwritten Code---

We're gonna have a nice, long discussion about this on my radio show this Saturday morning.

During the radio broadcast of Cincinnati Reds @ Pittsburgh Pirates Tuesday night, Greg Brown and Steve Blass engaged in some call-in banter during a rain delay. Toward the end of the delay, they had a call from a Reds fan (listening on the despicable XM) in Baton Rouge, Louisiana who made the comment that he's tired of seeing all these players in baseball being all buddy-buddy.

He specifically cited an instance where Jason Heyward of the Atlanta Braves hit the go-ahead double on Friday night to lift his team over Cincy in extra innings. Then, TV broadcasts covering the pregame the following day showed Heyward and the Reds' Brandon Phillips sharing a laugh or something.

Blass said that there was a thing called professionalism and that, during a game, a player's sole purpose is to contribute to a winning effort for his team. Essentially, he agreed that you have no friends wearing different uniforms. He also said that umpires used to sit in the stands during warmups and were supposed to notice "breaches" of some unwritten code that went against that business-only approach.

That started my wheels turning.

What got them smoking happened in the bottom of the second inning.

Reds' rookie starting pitcher Mike Leake hit Pirate center fielder Andrew McCutchen in the back of the head/neck with a pitch that put him out of the game with a contusion.

While Brown and Blass were talking that "intent" was usually difficult to discern, especially after only one pitch, there must be an equalizer in the next half-inning, especially with Leake due up second. Brown harkened back to a game earlier in the season in Los Angeles where McCutchen took two pitches very close. While neither hit him, he said that the intent had been clear, and the Pirates had failed to send a message in the subsequent half inning.

Flash forward to the top of the third inning in this ballgame: after one out and the Pirates leading 6-0, Pirate starter Paul Maholm puts a 1-0 pitch into Leake's leg. Home plate umpire Dana DeMuth warned both benches (meaning the next pitch determined to be closer than necessary to a batter was going to result in the ejection of the offending pitcher).

The broadcasters, particularly Blass, said that Reds manager Dusty Baker probably told Leake that he was going to get hit by a pitch, to just take it, put the bat down, and go to first.

At that point, Blass said that matter was over and done with, the sides were even, and everyone could move on.

Thus goes baseball's Unwritten Code.

You don't throw biting curveballs to opposing pitchers.

You don't yell when you're a runner on the basepaths, trying to confuse the infielders getting ready to field a pop-up.

You don't let it slide when one of your players gets hit, even if it wasn't intentional.

Of course, I may be a poor judge of "intent". I'm one of about five people who doesn't think Roger Clemens intended to bean Mike Piazza with a pitch back in 2000. This probably appears even more foolish today as Clemens has given us reasons to doubt his benevolence.

Still, in the case of a game involving a division leader and a league-wide laughing stock, it's pretty clear that the plunking was not Leake's intent.

There were two men on with two outs, and the Pirates were already leading 2-0. The last thing a pitcher would want to do is load the bases while trailing on the road.

Nevertheless, Leake will probably have a welt to show for his mistake tomorrow.

I've got a number of issues here. How is this "even up?" How much leave do we give "macho" before "intelligence" takes over? Or maybe that second question is backwards.

I hate mound-charging. I hate fighting in hockey. I hate fans of opposing teams getting involved in brawls. This does not equate to "fun" for me. Nor does it set a good example for the kids who grow up idolizing these sports figures.

The "message" that Brown might have been referring to, could relatively easily escalate to that old line from "The Untouchables" - "He pulls a knife, you pull a gun. He sends one of yours to the hospital, you send one of his to the morgue!"

And sending such a message also could jeopardize the outcome of the game. A team's primary objective is to win the game on the scoreboard. Not to show up the other team using some silent "guy" understanding.

In this case, Maholm had a six-run lead with no one on base. Had the Reds managed to put the kibosh on the Bucs with just two runs on the board, Maholm would have been allowing the tying run to come to the plate (and in the form of Pirate-killer Brandon Phillips, no less).

The Pirates barely hung on, eventually winning 7-6. When you're the Pirates, you need every run you can get and as few opposing baserunners as possible. If the rest of the game had played out the same way, except that Phillips homered in his at bat, the Bucs are on the losing end of an 8-7 victory. Is hitting the pitcher still worth it?

Phillips ended up flying out in the at-bat following Leake's HBP, but, according to the broadcasters, Phillips gave Maholm a steely glare all the way back to the dugout.

Imagine if Leake had, instead, managed to hit the first pitch on the field of play and made an out before Maholm could have "settled the score" with him. According to this "code", then, Maholm would have had to have drilled Phillips instead. Considering the ill feelings Phillips displayed after his at bat, I can only imagine Phillips would have taken a trip to the mound to "talk it over" with Maholm. You can bet ejections would have ensued then.

Speaking of which, DeMuth (the umpire) could have ejected Maholm simply for his second pitch to Leake, because his intent was far more clear. Fortunately for Maholm and the Pirates, DeMuth was complicit with the Code, allowed it to play out, then warned the benches. He didn't have to do it that way.

Am I making sense here? The Unwritten Code allows for the all-important sportsmanship to be thrown into the backseat.

Worse, the fans eat it up.

When doing high school sports broadcasts for the MSA Sports Network, I make it a point to give credit to any athlete I see showing good sportsmanship. When a football player from Team A helps a player from Team B to his feet, I praise that act. And I do it specifically because other folks have no problem pointing out the crass and disrespectful acts that others display while ignoring the noble ones.

I'm not sure which is the greater tragedy: That the Code trumps sportsmanship, or that those watching believe it should.

Join me this Saturday morning, August 7, 2010 from 9:15-10AM Eastern on 590 AM on your radio dial (or online) on the next installment of "Steeltown Sports: Live!"

#157: Steeltown Sports: Live! - July 31, 2010

2010-07-31T10:30:00.003-04:00

---SSL: July, 31, 2010---

A show that was chock full of callers. Made the segment go by swimmingly.

Archived version here:

#156: Return of "Steeltown Sports: Live!"

2010-07-24T10:53:00.004-04:00

---Off Hiatus---

It's BAAA-aaack!

The live radio edition of this blog, "Steeltown Sports: Live!" returned to the WMBS-AM airwaves this morning.

I had less than 24 hours to prepare, as the man who previously had the time slot (9AM-10AM Eastern, Saturday mornings) was hired to do a show on 93.7, The Fan, and learned of his new position midday yesterday.

Ironically, his 6-10AM show "competed" against the hour he vacated.

If you absolutely refuse to listen to me, I graciously invite you to tune in to him. You can always come here to listen to the archived version later (though your calls would be splendid).

My thanks to Jerome Shell for joining me in studio.

#155: Midsummer Dream's Nightmare

2010-07-11T17:58:00.008-04:00

---Bucs Skid Into Break---

Before I apologize to The Bard for mangling the title of his most well-known comedy, I'd like to announce the next sports-related broadcast from yours truly.

On Wednesday, July 14th, 2010, I will be joined by Pittsburgh Pirates play-by-play man Greg Brown on WMBS's "Nightsounds" program at 5:15PM EDT.

He'll be followed by Lew Freedman, the author of "Pittsburgh Steelers: The Complete Illustrated History" at 6:15PM EDT.

Pittsburgh area listeners can tune in live on 590AM, or can listen live to the station by clicking here.

If you have a question for Mr. Brown, please send me an e-mail -

SteeltownMike (at) yahoo (dot) com

It is unlikely that we'll be taking callers live during the Greg Brown segment. I also plan to have my e-mail open during the broadcast, in case people decide to listen live.

So, again, mark your calendars and join me on Wednesday, July 14th from 5:15-7PM EDT.

No, go ahead and mark it. I'll wait.

============

The Pirates just completed being swept on their final road trip prior to the All-Star Break. They lost all three of their games in the Milwaukee Brewers series by one run a piece, and in two of them, they blew ninth-inning leads.

With 74 games remaining, the team is on pace to lose 106 or 107 games.

A friend of mine said that this season is not about wins and losses; it is about getting the "young guys" up from the minors and getting accustomed to playing together.

He may be right, but with the third five-year rebuilding plan hitting the halfway point right about now, any rational fan would have to be concerned.

Putting aside my personal bias that the team will not produce a winning season while Bob Nutting and his family owns the team (seeking instead to stay in the bottom five MLB payrolls so he can reap the benefits of revenue sharing), let's review the waypoints.

General Manager Neal Huntington was hired on the heels of the 2007 season, with the Bucs sporting a 68-94.

The first year of rebuilding didn't appear to be vastly different (one game worse at 67-95 - 28 games below .500), however, the Pirates won only 17 games in the final two months of the season after trading away outfielders Jason Bay and Xavier Nady and relief pitcher Damaso Marte.

The Nady/Marte deal has definitely been the feather in the cap of the Huntington era. Partly because Nady has been up-and-down with injury and that Marte had a bad year in '09, posting an ERA near 10, and partly because all four players received have been with the big club.

Ross Ohlendorf looks to be the most promising of the bunch, ending the 2009 season with an ERA below 4. Jeff Karstens looks like he's going to reliably be a pitcher with an ERA around 5-ish, with 1.5 runners on base per inning. Daniel McCutchen's jury is still out, as he's the only one bouncing back and forth between Pittsburgh and Indianapolis for the time being. Jose Tabata is still getting accustomed to life in the bigs, but he's not doing poorly.

The Bay trade, conversely, has all but imploded. Only Andy LaRoche is on the major league club at present, but he has been relegated to a bench player. Brandon Moss is in AAA Indianapolis, hitting only .242. Pitcher Craig Hansen is on the Indy roster, but has seen no action and is on the disabled list. Bryan Morris - the minor league pitcher they were hoping would become a major contributor - is 4-4 in AA Altoona with 52 strikeouts in just over 53 innings, but has uncorked 6 wild pitches and hit 4 batters. Not likely we'll be seeing Morris up top before 2012.

In 2009, the Pirates said goodbye to outfielders Nate McClouth and Nyjer Morgan, infielders Adam LaRoche, Jack Wilson and Freddy Sanchez, and pitcher Sean Burnett. They said hello to:

- Charlie Morton, who, after a 4-hit shutout of the Chicago Cubs at Wrigley Field to end his 2009 season on a high note and complete a respectable first stint with Pittsburgh, completely imploded in 2010, going 1-9 (in 10 outings) with an ERA above 9. In Indianapolis, he's only half as bad, with a record of 1-3 in 7 starts and a 4.50 ERA.

- Gorkys Hernandez, who was supposed to be the hidden gem of the trade. He's stuck in AA Altoona with a team-high 85 strikeouts, only 2 home runs and a .264 batting average. Not awful, necessarily (except for those Ks), but certainly nothing to brag about.

- Jeff Locke is 9-3 with a 3.54 ERA...in High-A Bradenton.

- Lastings Milledge, whose stats are actually a little better overall than Morgan's, but he still lacks the speed, and has not generated the power that many were expecting, so it appears to be a wash, at best.

- Joel Hanrahan, who has given up 3 more HRs than Burnett has, and, as a result has a higher ERA. However, Hanrahan has more strikeouts and has given up fewer hits, and has a better W/L record. Again, this trade is about a wash...but Hanrahan didn't make the team younger.

- Argenis Diaz, who has made it to Indianapolis. The shortstop is batting .253, but has struck out better than 20% of his at bats. Also, he doesn't hit for power. Not sure how big of a splash he can make if the Pirates let him sniff the roster when teams expand in September.

- Hunter Strickland, who had a 2-1 record with a 4.50 ERA in Bradenton before being put on the DL. In both his and Diaz's case, I won't bother knocking the return for Adam LaRoche, as he failed to deliver at the plate, as he was counted upon to do when the team acquired him.

- Ronny Cedeno, relegated to bench/platoon duty, hitting below .230

- Jeff Clement, a disaster so far both in the field and the plate. Then again, the Pirates were trying to convert a catcher to first base (didn't work with Doumit, either). Meanwhile, he's back in AAA hitting .279 with 6 dingers. Maybe some extra practice in Indy is what will help.

- Tim Alderson, highly-regarded pitcher who is struggling in AA Altoona with a 5.30 ERA and a 7-5 record. He's also given up a team-high 10 long balls.

The band-aids aren't enough to stem the bleeding, and the cure looks to be a long way from being developed in the minor league lab.

Of course, 2010 so far has seen the Jesse-Chavez-for-Akinori-Iwamura trade. Regardless of how Chavez's season has unfolded, there's no way this trade will be less than a bomb.

With the deadline coming soon, it's time to wonder if this is the year that the Pirates will mainly stand pat, or if the high-profilers will get jettisoned.

This year, I'll be watching to see if the Pirates unload All-Star Evan Meek (right now, I think he'll be traded) or Paul Maholm. I actually wouldn't mind seeing catcher Ryan Doumit (who has difficult times going an entire game without a ball getting away from him and rarely catches a base runner stealing) go, nor Zach Duke (who will never regain that form he had when he was first called up).

No matter what, it does not appear that this team will be ready to start winning more than they lose two years from now. Even if was always going to take 7 years to put a true contender together, there needs to be signs of consistency starting to form soon, and then competitive baseball being played (especially on the road) by the end of next year.

Based on the way trades have been working out for the team, though, I don't think this plan is going to work either.

With apologies to William Shakespeare, I humbly submit a re-write of the final monologue from "A Midsummer Night's Dream."

If this blogger has offended,
Think but this, and all is mended:
That you have but slumbered here
While this nightmare did appear,
And this weak and idle team
No more yielding but a dream.
Pirates fans, don't reprehend:
If you pardon, I will mend.
And, as I am an honest Mike,
If they have a called third strike
Now to spite the owner's hand,
We will fully understand;
Else the Bucs are ever doomed.
So until winning's resumed,
Give me comments, if we be friends,
And Steeltown shall restore amends.

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#154: Meek Inherits the Berth

2010-07-05T01:05:00.004-04:00

---Bull of the Pen Gets His Due---

It's a relief...pitcher.

Evan Meek, the right-handed fireballer, is the Pittsburgh Pirates' lone representative to the 2010 All Star Game.

I may have mentioned in the past that I am glad that every city must have at least one representative on the roster. That makes sense to me. They don't even need to play (see Exhibit A: Jason Bay in 2005).

Sometimes, the person selected doesn't really fit the mold (Zach Duke wasn't really having an All Star season, but then again, who was?), but pitchers and outfielders are usually the ones an All-Star roster can load up on.

This time, it's probably right that Meek gets the nod.

When a team is on pace to lose 100+ games in a season (Pirates looking at 104 at this rate), it can be harder to make the argument for an all-team participation.

Meek, though, has the stats to back it up.

Meek has a record 4-2 on a team that's won 30 games. Starting LHP Paul Maholm is the only pitcher that has more (or even as many) wins, with 5.

With 47 innings pitched to this point, his ERA is a minuscule 0.96, which is tops on the team by far (Javier Lopez is second at 2.67), and his 0.85 WHIP (Walks + Hits per inning pitched) is the only one on the team below 1.00.

League-wide, he is second among pitchers in ERA with more than 30 innings pitched (Jose Valverde of the Detroit Tigers with a 0.55 ERA), and he's tops in pitchers with more than 40 innings pitched (Jason Berken of the Baltimore Orioles is next with a 1.75 ERA in 46.1 innings).

Pirate fans can only hope he doesn't break down in the second half, as he's also logged the most innings of any reliever on the club, and fifth-most overall.

I had a chance to interview Meek during the Pirates Winter Caravan, as some might remember from a post I wrote back in January. In mid-February, I said that I would release the audio from my various interviews that day toward the end of the season to "hear how ludicrous or prophetic each person sounded".

During that same session, I also interviewed Kevin Hart, whom the Bucs acquired last year in a trade with the Chicago Cubs for Tom Gorzelanny and John Grabow. Hart, who apparently had trouble throwing strikes, underwent surgery to repair a torn labrum in May.

Looking back, it is interesting how these two men could not have had fortunes any more different.

As a bonus, count how many times in the nine minute, ten second clip that I say, "Uh..." You'll run out of toes quickly enough.

That's probably part of the reason I'm not working in radio in the city yet.

(Edit - I am more than a little downhearted that I'm not even the third person to think of the main title of this post...)

Comment below, or share on Facebook with friends.

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#153: The Element of Surprise

2010-06-17T21:57:00.002-04:00

---Fooling a Cynic is Tough---

Just when I think I have the motives and the strategies of the Pittsburgh Pirates upper management figured...

...the general manager calls up pretty much their last ace in the hole to get butts in seats in the middle of a season-long losing streak.

...the general manager announces he's actively trying to trade a player a lot of high school teams wouldn't want right now.

...the general manager gets his option for 2011 picked up.

Yes, Pirate fans (and fans of other teams who like to stop in for a laugh), welcome to Bob Nutting Land - where the well-intentioned get punished, the undeserving get rewarded, and everyone gets taken for a ride.

Less than a week ago, I posted my prediction that the Pirates were going to wait until the season was officially kaput (late July at the earliest) before calling up prized 2008 draftee Pedro Alvarez.

I can't help but think that if the Pirates had won at least two games in the last eleven (as of this writing, the Bucs have lost eleven straight after being swept by the Chicago White Sox), Alvarez would still be down at Indianapolis.

So, as the emergency brakes have been virtually blown off of the team's downward-sliding elevator, the Pirate brass must have had no choice but to try to fashion some sort of financial parachute to keep a large contingent of fans from jumping ship before summer officially arrives.

To the second point: Neal Huntington is now actively seeking to trade Akinori Iwamura, the $4.8 million dollar trade acquisition from the Tampa Bay Rays - who were going to let him go, anyway (tell me that the Rays don't have guys who know what they're doing). Raise your hand if you thought the Pirates already got rid of David Littlefield.

Trying to trade a player (and an expensive one, at that, for all his liabilities) when his stock is absolutely nil, is asinine. Announcing that you're trying to trade him is that much worse. All that laughing we're hearing across Major League Baseball isn't at Aki. It's at the franchise.

And finally, it was announced that both Huntington and manager John Russell had their contract options for 2011 picked up.

Ok. That one wasn't a shock. They're the perfect lapdogs for Bob Nutting's Syndicate, so why would he jettison them? They're the perfect cannon fodder, even though their predecessors received the same criticism, to help protect the man behind the curtain. The faces have changed, but their roles are identical.

At this point, I wish the Pirates would stop surprising me, because all of genuine surprises have been to the detriment of a team I thought had already hit bottom.

Oh.

That's right.

We're in Nutting Land.

Well, in that case...

Surprise!

================================

Some other thoughts -

- Poor Jose Tabata. It's almost like he's the hex. He's played in seven games in while up top (eight have been played), and still not a win to show for it. He's been playing well, though, and you can tell he's playing to win. Can he pitch? Maybe someone should ask...

- During these eleven losses, the Pirates have hit seven home runs - four solo shots and three two-run homers. Delwyn Young has two of those multi-run blasts (Garrett Jones, the other). The Bucs have been outscored 60-33, and they've committed 13 errors. Yeah, they committed six in one game, but that still leaves seven errors spread across the remaining ten losses.

- For years, I had tried to encourage my small, but loyal fan base to stop buying tickets to games. Maybe they have. But I may have figured out why season ticket packages continue to be sold (and re-upped).

If someone has kick-ass seats in the best ballpark in America, they're going to want to have those seats when the time comes that the Pirates are back in the postseason (or even the postseason hunt). They're willing to keep paying the price so that they can laugh at all of us doubters when the time comes.

The best they can hope for is that this Forbes article from early last month is true, that Bob Nutting will sell the team.

If not, they'd better be prepared to spend a lot of dough on a lot more heartbreak. The only ones laughing will be those with the Syndicate.

On the other hand, if those blindly loyal fans would give up their seats, some ticket broker who lives outside of the 'Burgh would snatch them up and sell them on a game-by-game basis.

You can't win here, team and fan alike. Thanks, Bob.

- Speaking of the Syndicate, while watching the Bucs lose the final game to the Sox tonight, I couldn't help but notice that the entire broadcast was more like a pledge break on PBS. It just so happened there was a game going on in the background. I'm pretty sure FSN reporter Rob King got more airtime than Pedro Alvarez.

To the charity auction itself, I'm even skeptical that the money being raised was for any genuine philanthropy. In the fine print, I almost expect to see proceeds from these packages go to things like, "Starving Children for the Construction of a New Ski Lift at Seven Springs" and "Disabled Veterans for Increased Circulation of The Herb Companion Magazine".

But even if the money does go to a good cause (or several), I still think that some of the items contain a bunch of "things they left out of the description on purpose."

My favorite one was something like "Kids Take the Field." The winning bidder has his kid bring eight friends to a home game, where they get to be announced on the field next to a starter on that team's roster. Then they get an autographed ball from that position player (or pitcher) that they got announced with (wanna bet they fight amongst themselves on who gets announced with Andrew McCutchen...if he's even in the line up that day?). Each kid gets two tickets. One for him/her, and one for a parent.

The corporate sleight of hand is that, if their kids are going to be down on the field, more than just one parent is going to show up.

Like, the whole damn family's coming.

So, nine kids times five friends and relatives (on average) is 45 more people than were going to come to the game in the first place. Add souvenirs and refreshments, as well as tickets...well, the Syndicate is going to eat well again.

I suppose if the winning bidder is shelling out between $2,000 and $3,000 for that package, the rest is just a drop in the bucket to them. But the Syndicate profits from it.

Even in charity work, there's mega-promotion going on.

Surprise!

#152: Defeat Goes On...

2010-06-12T14:59:00.003-04:00

---...As Does the Spin---

Before my next Pirates lament, a couple of quick hits:

1) I need better sources. No sooner had I declared that all-around baseball stud Bryce Harper was, in fact, going to fall from the top slot in this past week's draft, than I learned that Washington was undoubtedly going to take him. Talk about an unneeded hit to one's already insignificant credibility. In any event, now that Bucs have drafted the best remaining pitcher, it remains to be seen if he will be signed.

2) Chicago wins the Stanley Cup. Steeltown Sports went 10-5 this year predicting each series' victor on the Shots-on-Goal Differential scale, though predicting a hot goalie (and, usually, the number of games) remained a challenge. Make no mistake, though. Montreal's run to the Eastern Conference Final was the biggest statistical fluke we've seen in a long while.

3) Props to the Philadelphia Flyers for hanging with the 'Hawks. Four of the six games were decided by one goal (two in overtime), a fifth game could have been a one-goal game if not for an empty-netter, and had Chicago goaltender Antti Niemi not made the best save he's made all playoffs, we'd have been looking at a seventh game.

4) Today is the one-year anniversary of the Pittsburgh Penguins winning the Cup against Detroit in that heart-stopping Game 7.

With the preliminaries done, let's talk baseball.

Sort of.

As of this entry, the Pittsburgh Pirates are 23-38 (15 games under .500), and owners of a six-game losing streak. They are in the National League Central cellar by a full game entering play tonight (which takes into account a Houston loss to the Yankees this afternoon), and they're tied for the 2nd worst winning percentage in all of baseball (with Seattle, better only than Baltimore).

And this, believe it or not, might be the good news.

One of my favorite lines from the comic play "Fools" by Neil Simon says:

"When you're going downhill, it gets faster at the bottom."

Now, while this character is misquoting the idea (replacing "toward" with "at"), this is very appropriate when talking about the Pirates and their current five-year plan (the end of this season will essentially mark the end of Year Three).

Another "plan" is virtually in shambles, and ownership and management know it.

Every year, they have a player who they can market the team around. Last year, it was Andrew McCutchen. The year before, Nate McClouth. Before that, probably Jason Bay, or maybe Freddy Sanchez.

This year, it looks like McCutchen is again the guy, but he's not as fresh. Neil Walker is showing promise, especially considering that he was drafted as a catcher, but now plays on the opposite side of the diamond in the Bigs.

I can only imagine how much the marketing department is struggling right now.

Anyway, Pittsburgh (to my surprise) finally promoted outfielder Jose Tabata and pitcher Brad Lincoln, probably hoping to generate some buzz.

To a certain extent, they even managed to screw that up.

Lincoln could have made his debut facing off against last year's number one overall draft pick in Stephen Strasburg (whom even the likes of Greg-Maddux-in-his-prime would have struggled to outduel that night, let alone Jeff Karstens).

I haven't even bothered to read why they didn't allow Lincoln to debut at the same time, giving a national spotlight (albeit on the MLB Network) on both clubs, not just on Washington. While it's unlikely that the outcome of the game would have been much different, all of the pressure still would have been on Strasburg. Instead, Lincoln had the spotlight squarely on him the following game, and he got stung.

Something tells me that Pedro Alvarez is to be their late July call-up when the entire season is in the crapper (30 games under) to get butts in seats late. Lincoln and Tabata are just to keep people paying attention so that they'll know when it happens.

You know things are bad when we start predicting the spin, rather than anything relevant to the game.

So, how bad is this team statistically?

Well, start with one of the key indicators of whether a team is at least heading in the right direction: run differential.

For the statistical novice, this is easy to compute if you can't find it on some stats page: take the total number of runs scored, and subtract the number of runs against. The Pirates are the league's worst in that category (-144). Next closest is Baltimore (-117). Then Houston (-96). Best? Tampa Bay (+101).

According to the Relative Power Rankings (RPI) at ESPN.com, the Pirates expected record is 15-46.

While a good many of us don't hold ESPN in the highest of esteem (I personally think its letters stand for "If You're Not in a Big City, We Don't Care" in Icelandic), it still makes you scratch your head that, given the statistical data accumulated so far this season, the Pirates are actually overachieving this season by eight games!

That's difficult to swallow, considering that they have scored the fewest runs and possess the league's second-highest ERA and WHIP.

The Bucs need a mere 44 defeats on the season, and the record number of losing seasons legally becomes an adult.

The losing streak will have to register with Selective Service. It will be able to register to vote. It can drive a car after midnight.

I think on that day when the 82nd defeat occurs (which figures to be around August 19 at home to the Marlins), I will loudly declare to anyone who asks me about the losing streak:

"That's MISTER Losing Streak, to YOU!"

At this point, you have to make your own fun.

#151: Perfect Disaster

2010-06-04T14:07:00.002-04:00

---Getting Things Wrong---

One, history will remember forever; the other... might get a few mentions for about a week (outside of Pittsburgh).

The first, of course, is the one-hitter that was actually a perfect game thrown by young Detroit Tigers pitcher Armando Galarraga.

Naturally, as with all officiating travesties in sports, the crucial call game at the precise moment when the game should have ended.

Two outs, top of the ninth, his team up by three, and the 27th opposing batter comes to the plate. The Cleveland Indians' Jason Donald (remember that name: it will be the answer to a trivia question) grounds the 1-1 pitch to first. First baseman Miguel Cabrera fields it and quickly flips the ball to Galarraga who has come off the mound to cover the bag. The ball beats Donald by a little less than a step, but first base umpire Jim Joyce (another name to remember for trivia purposes) calls Donald safe.

It would have been bad enough had the call come in the top of the 8th with nobody out (and the rest of the game could have been perfect), but the timing in this case was, and is, excruciating.

Some critics were saying that you have to give the benefit of the doubt to the pitcher in this case, but I disagree. Had the two arrived at the same time, then the tie should go to the runner (the rule indicates that a tag or a force must occur "before" the runner reaches the bag.

But this was not a tie.

It is also not the first blown call in Major League Baseball history, so I implore those wanting to lynch Joyce to calm down a little bit.

The crime appears to be happening in baseball's front office.

As of yesterday, commissioner Bud Selig said that the call will not be overturned.

His office does have the power to rule a play differently, but is electing not to.

Selig (and the few who support his decision) and the thousands who think the call should be reversed are both citing "integrity of the game".

As though juiced baseballs and athletes, in addition to poor officiating, haven't denigrated it enough.

I have never wanted to see replay instituted in baseball, because it's a slippery slope that will probably ultimately replace human umpires with strike zone-precise machines.

But in a case like this, where an historic 3rd perfect game in a season was denied by human error, it might be time to institute a challenge rule, like the one used in the NFL.

With the exception of balls and strikes, each team can challenge two calls per game (including foul balls, close plays at a particular base, diving catches, or home runs). If they're right twice, they get a third, and so on, until they are incorrect.

Even this idea makes me shudder, but if there's going to be replay, I'd rather the decision to review a play be in the hands of the teams rather than the umpires.

Unless something changes, "Steeltown Sports" congratulates Armando Galarraga on his perfect game*.

=====

The other disaster unfolding is much closer to the Steel City.

The 2010 Major League Baseball amateur draft starts on Monday, and the Pittsbugh Pirates have the second overall pick.

The word has been that the team with the first overall pick, the Washington Nationals, will probably not draft all-around high school player Bryce Harper, having tied up a ton of money in last year's #1 pick, Stephen Strasberg.

This would leave a potential cornerstone player (once again) ripe for the plucking for the Pirates.

However, rumors are abounding that Pittsburgh is poised to draft someone else.

Not that we should be surprised.

Remember all the arm-twisting/tooth-pulling/rectal-thermometering that went on two years ago when Pirate management reluctantly selected Pedro Alvarez...then nearly lost him because super-agent (and baseball's super-villain) Scott Boras would not settle for less than a major league contract?

Well, as usual, the best player in the draft has Boras as his agent (that's almost more predictable than a Pittsburgh losing season).

After getting schooled by Boras two years ago, it's unlikely that Bob Nutting, Frank Coonely and Neal Huntington want to walk that road again, especially since saving (and banking) money is this organization's modus operandi.

And when they pass on Harper (I really don't think this is much of an "if") expect lots of talk to gloss over their actual pick and focus more on the talent they have coming up (or those that are already here). Lots of touting Andrew McCutchen and Neil Walker. Talking up Brad Lincoln, Pedro Alvarez and Jose Tabata (while delaying promoting them, so they can save some more money by keeping them down in the minors.

Meanwhile, no one will mention that their actual #1 pick does not have Scott Boras for an agent.

I don't blog too much about the Bucs anymore, because it all comes back to a whole lot of Nutting.

But I do take pleasure in pointing out to the Pirate fans who continue to fork their money over to the Syndicate that they are the ones making this perfect circle of ineptitude continue to roll.

#150: Stanley Cup Final 2010

2010-05-28T11:23:00.002-04:00

---And the Cup Goes to...---

On the road, but I wanted to make sure I got a prediction in before the Final started.

First, Shots on Goal Differential (SOGD) in predicting series outcomes is now 9-5 after both Philadelphia and Chicago advanced as predicted in the last post.

The short story: Chicago is at a +9 for the season, Philly at a +3.

Philadelphia is not "guaranteed" to lose this series because they're in the positive, as well, but Chicago is becoming the new Detroit Red Wing machine (as much as they would probably hate that comparison).

I hope to edit this before the series starts and add some numbers and factoids, but just in case I don't...

Third time's the charm, and Marian Hossa finally raises the Cup.

Blackhawks in five.

#149: 2010 Conference Finals

2010-05-16T11:25:00.004-04:00

---7-5 Through 2 Rounds---

The more you think you know, the less you actually do.

Followers of "Steeltown Sports" since it began have to admit there is a pretty solid trend with regard to individual series winners having the greater Shots on Goal Differential (SOGD).

This year, though, it's been a bit more of an adventure. Through twelve series, the formula has already failed more times (5) than in all 15 series last year (11-4).

Still, the only historical trend that is stronger than the rest is that only two teams since 1990 have won the Stanley Cup with a season-long SOGD in the negative (1990-91 Penguins, who acquired a bunch of help at the trade deadline to boost their numbers late; and the 2008-2009 Penguins, but it was their change in coaches - and subsequent philosophy change - that reversed their numbers after the trade deadline).

With no drastic mid-season changes, though, as long as a team is dead even in SOGD or better on the season, they have a chance, even if it's a +1 team taking on a +9.

This still does not explain the phenomenon that is the tireless Montreal Canadiens. More on that in a bit.

Chicago and Philadelphia both advanced per my predictions, and, most notably, both advanced in the predicted number of games (success or failure of my series predictions aside, I'm terrible with picking the correct number of games).

Now, with what went wrong.

Detroit and Pittsburgh both fell, the former as the lowest seed remaining in its conference, the latter as the highest seed in its conference.

The Red Wings were predicted here to win in six, but fell in five. San Jose won all four of their games by a single goal, where as Detroit won their only contest by six. In the final three games, Detroit outshot the Sharks, but the overall shot totals were dead even (166).

The rookie goaltender for the Red Wings Jimmy Howard's save percentage was admirable (90.9%), and, in fact, better than his primary counterpart in blue, Evgeni Nabakov (88.6%). However, if you take out Nabakov's bad game where he was pulled after allowing five goals on nine shots, his save percentage in San Jose's four wins was 91.9%.

There was also some chatter on message boards that San Jose was practically handed the series by the referees, but we don't complain about officiating here. Detroit fans pulled the same stuff about the Stanley Cup Final the past two years, and that was unfounded. Still, even if there was a bad call (or ten bad calls), the motto is:

Champions Overcome.

San Jose won all the close ones, and the series could have easily gone longer. It makes one wonder if Detroit, as a team, was kind of gassed after playing the last two seasons to their limits, and that was the intangible difference.

Detroit's nemesis the past two seasons, the Pittsburgh Penguins, also appeared to have run out of gas. The pick here was Pens in five, but there were some eerie predictions in that series capsule.

One was that Montreal was going to have a whale of a time winning Game One just two days after ousting Washington on the road (Pens won 6-3, going 4-for-4 on the power play).

Another was that goaltender Jaroslav Halak was going to have to stand on his head in the series. How's 203 saves on 219 shots for standing on one's head (94% save percentage)? Take out the first game, and it that number improves (94.5%).

The Pens spread the puck around, too. Sidney Crosby had 17 shots in the series, as did Chris Kunitz and Sergei Gonchar. Pascal Dupuis had 18 shots and Tyler Kennedy had 19. Defensemen Alex Goligosky and Kris Letang also shot a fair number of times (15 and 13, respectively).

For Penguin fans who think trying to trade Evgeni Malkin to get Crosby a winger and/or the team a solid defenseman, they need to consider Malkin led the team in shots this series. By a wide margin. Try 31.

Alexei Ponikarovsky played in only five games, and generated just as many shots. He was a big body that could have had several chances had he parked himself in front of the net. Halak wasn't giving up many rebounds, but Poni was playing by the boards too much.

Worse, Ruslan Fedotenko played in only four games, and was benched when he was only able to generate two shots on net.

That was the factor I did not conceive.

And finally on the second-round-prediction front (and we quote here) -

"[U]nless goalie Marc-Andre Fleury implodes, Pittsburgh should finish Montreal quickly."

Fleury's save percentage for the series: 89.2% (148 saves on 166 shots).

I'll go ahead and take out Game Seven to give you a number, even though that's the contest that anyone can ill-afford to have a bad game: 90.8% (139 saves on 153 shots).

The number looks better because it's on the plus-side of 90, but he needed to outplay the guy on the other end of the ice four times. He only did so in the three wins.

Pens fans should give Halak all the credit in the world, but they need to recognize that Fleury needed to be better, especially when facing 53 fewer shots in the series.

One final note on Fleury, in his two shutouts this season (one in the regular season against Boston and one in this past series against Montreal), he faced 17 and 18 shots respectively. No shutouts when facing 19 or more shots all year. Oddly, both shutouts came on the road.

No matter. What's past is past.

The Conference Finals begin this afternoon, so it's time to get my projections out.

Here are the SOGD averages for the season (and the SOGD averages after the trade deadline) of the surviving teams.

Eastern Conference
7. Philadelphia +3.0 (+2.0)
8. Montreal -3.5 (+0.4)

Western Conference
1. San Jose +0.4 (+0.7)
2. Chicago +9.0 (+7.3)

Western Conference

#1 San Jose vs. #2 Chicago

These two teams fought until season's end to determine their conference's regular season champion, so it's only fitting that they will meet to determine its Stanley Cup Final representative.

They have not met since January 28th (a 4-3 road win for Chicago) and the Blackhawks had a record of 3-1 against the Sharks.

In the four games, Chicago has outshot San Jose each time, with an average differential of +14.5 (a 47-14 shot differential...in their only loss, oddly enough, skews that statistic a bit.

The Sharks have the home ice advantage in the series, but Chicago won both games at the Shark Tank this year.

The X-factor in this series will be Antti Niemi. He has never faced San Jose prior to today. We'll get to see if the crowd in San Jose and some game planning will help the Sharks neutralize what will probably be a Chicago-dominated performance in terms of shots on goal.

Both Niemi and Nabokov are below save percentages of 91% in the 2010 playoffs, (90.9% and 90.7% respectively), so that does seem to indicate that number of shots generated will be key.

Chicago is becoming very Detroit-like in their ability to possess the puck in the offensive zone for long stretches, and that will likely be the undoing of San Jose.

I've said it (twice) before, and I'll say it again.

Blackhawks in six.

Eastern Conference

#7 Philadelphia vs. #8 Montreal

A series loss by either team here will be seen by its fan base as a huge letdown.

For Philadelphia, there's talk of "destiny" after rallying from a 3-0 series deficit, and a 3-0 Game 7 deficit to win both 4-3. Now, they have home ice against a team most experts thought would have been golfing after the Washington series.

For Montreal, they have completed back-to-back upsets of historic proportions to get here. As an eighth-seed, they were the first team to come back from a 3-1 series deficit to shock a top-seeded team, and then they became the first number eight to defeat the President's Cup champion and the defending Stanley Cup champions in successive rounds. So, to some observers, it will be like the Canadiens will be taking the game off the "Expert" level and playing on "Hard", or, perhaps, "Normal".

The Flyers don't figure to get as many pucks to the net as the Capitals or the Penguins, but they probably don't figure to be as finesse of a team. They have actually been fairly good about staying out of the penalty box, but will likely take some penalties, crash the net, and try to disturb Halak and his team's defensive harmony.

The Canadiens, with nothing to lose from the start of the postseason, will have no problem returning the favor, knowing that Philadelphia is thin at goaltender (especially healthwise).

Oh, but this is going to be an ugly series. That's generally what a lower seed wants, because it means it has a chance.

It's very hard to pick against Halak here, even if the SOGD statistic favors Philadelphia. Not to mention that the Canadiens have a sizeable contingent of past Stanley Cup winners in their ranks.

Philly is banged up, but they've managed to plug the holes and have players rise at the right times. And they've been playing more disciplined hockey than many would acknowledge.

Don't miss a minute of this one, as it will almost certainly go seven games.

Do I actually have to pick a winner?

Damn.

Shots on goal differential breaks all ties.

Flyers in 7.

But what do I know?

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#148: Stanley Flop

2010-05-13T20:38:00.002-04:00

---Pens Suffer Letdown to Inspired Habs---

This has been an odd year for playoff hockey in general.

The top two seeds in the Western Conference will vie for a chance at hockey's Holy Grail while it is possible that the bottom two seeds will meet for the Eastern Conference's berth.

The Montreal Canadiens' seven-game stunner over the defending Stanley Cup Champion Pittsburgh Penguins is one of the great statistical playoff upsets in NHL history, and is the top statistical upset in franchise history (surpassing the '93 Islanders series and the '96 Panthers series).

Perhaps the greatest shock of the series was the relative ease with which the Canadiens came into the Mellon Arena, with a crowd amped to do their part to see to it that the final game at the venue would not be played that night, and had the game won by the middle of the second period.

While Montreal played sound hockey, the kind of game they needed to play in order to have a chance against another high-powered offense, many Penguins did not rise to the challenge. Trade deadline acquisitions Alex Ponikarovsky and Jordan Leopold did not improve the team as the front office had hoped. Ruslan Fedotenko and Tyler Kennedy were absent the entire playoff run.

Even two of the world's three best players in Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin could not find a way to outshine the workmanlike Habitants.

The talent and the stats in favor of the Penguins, and the fatigue that many expected Montreal to display following their hang-on-for-dear-life comeback over the Washington Capitals did not manifest in the way many thought.

Now, Montreal has gained a little more respect.

Las Vegas' futures propositions for Cup winners (as of this post) read like this:

Boston Bruins +800

Chicago Blackhawks +160

Montreal Canadiens +350

Philadelphia Flyers +900

San Jose Sharks +160

In layman's terms, Chicago and San Jose are running at a dead heat (1.6 to 1 odds) to win it all, with Montreal, for the moment, the best out of the East. This is partially due to the fact that Boston or Philly needs to win one more game.

Will the Canadiens be the favorites in their next series despite not having home ice advantage?

Were I a bookmaker, I certainly would make them so. In fact, as of right now, a major sports book has Montreal at -120 now to win the Eastern Conference.

And why not?

The Canadiens are doing what almost all championship-caliber teams do in May: Peak.

The past couple of hockey-related posts on this blog have indicated that Montreal is historically doomed in terms of winning Lord Stanley's Cup, having a season-long Shots on Goal Differential (SOGD) in the negative. The operating theory is that being beaten in shots per game over the long haul will overwhelm a team at some point, especially in a best-of-seven series.

So far, that has not been the case for Montreal.

The Penguins outshot Montreal by an average of 7.0 shots per game.

In the Capitals series, Montreal was outshot by nearly double that amount per game (13.9).

The foil of the SOGD theory is the hot goalie, and Jaroslav Halak has been the epitome of one such athlete.

In order for the Penguins to have emerged as the victors, they needed a bit more from Halak's counterpart, Marc-Andre Fleury.

Pittsburgh media and the die-hard fans are already defending Flower, saying that he was hung out to dry by his defense on a number of critical goals.

When will the fans realize that if Fleury is to emerge from the "overrated" label which most of the rest of hockey has him under, he needs to take command of a game (nay, several games) by himself and make the critical saves. Without help.

Halak made some huge stops in both series when he was left out to dry by his defense. The Pens were still able to get nearly 32 shots a game, which does not include the ungodly amount of shots that were blocked on their way to the net. Halak helped himself as much as his defense did.

Fleury didn't face nearly the number of shots, nor did he make a proportional number of stellar stops.

Between the pipes, it was the Slovak who looked like a first overall draft pick.

In the first two series, Halak was shot at 450 times. He stopped 430. A save percentage of 93.3%

Fleury, in contrast, stopped 302 of 339. 89.1%

If Flower had stopped 89.1% of 450 shots, he would have allowed roughly 49 goals - nearly 2.5 times more than Halak.

If Fleury backers want to say that he just wasn't sharp in these playoffs and that he'll come back next year, I can accept that. To say that he shouldn't bear a large portion of the blame, however, is the very definition of "homerific". If that's even a word.

Montreal had a plan and was crisper in its execution of said plan.

It's not unreasonable to think that Montreal can advance to the Stanley Cup Final, because neither Philly nor Boston get the puck to the net as much as Washington or Pittsburgh.

It's also not unreasonable to think that the Canadiens could subconsciously let their guard down after having vanquished two juggernauts in consecutive series to face a squad that will be considered by many to be a tier lower on the totem pole.

Either way, there are folks in San Jose and Chicago who no doubt think that their upcoming best-of-seven tilt truly is the Stanley Cup Final.

But in an odd playoff year like this one, I wouldn't bet the house on it.

#147: On to Round 2...

2010-04-29T20:03:00.003-04:00

---SOGD goes 5-3 in Round 1---

I'm not off to as good a start as I was after one round last year.

If this is the first time you've read "Steeltown Sports," the past couple of years I have been tracking NHL playoff series results round-by-round, using regular season shots-on-goal differential, or SOGD (taking the average shots a team takes per game throughout the year, and subtracting the number of shots given up). A negative SOGD is pretty much the death knell insofar as actually going on to win the Stanley Cup.

Last season, I introduced a wrinkle, taking into account a team's SOGD after the trade deadline and tried to predict series winners off a combination of both the entire season and post-trade numbers. I went 6-2 in the first round (11-4 overall in predicting series).

This year, I really didn't change my approach. "Steeltown Sports" is 5-3 after the Conference Quarterfinals, which, in my opinion, is not that good.

San Jose, Chicago, Detroit, Pittsburgh and Boston all advanced, but Washington, New Jersey and L.A. fell.

With Round Two about to get under way with San Jose/Detroit Game One (in less than an hour as I write this), I feel I have to write quickly to make "valid" predictions.

First, a quick review as to what "went wrong" in the three series I missed.

1) L.A. in 7 over Vancouver.

I even called it "a thrilling 7". The teams were very close statistically, but L.A. had the slight edge. Vancouver, though, as a unit, had experience.

In the six games, L.A. only outshot Vancouver twice (not the same two games that they won, though). That said, Kings goalie Jonathan Quick was not up to the task and finished with an inferior save percentage (a vastly more telling stat that Goals Against Average) for the series than his Canuck counterpart, Roberto Luongo (.884 for quick, vs. .893).

Had L.A. gotten the better of the shots-on-goal, they might have won. Experience (or lack thereof) seems to be the chief difference, at least at a preliminary glance.

2) N.J. in 6 over Philadelphia.

This is simply a matter of Flyers goalie Brian Boucher absolutely shining over Martain Brodeur of the Devils. Unlike the L.A./Vancouver series, this wasn't even close. In the five games it took Philly to oust Joisey, the Devils won the shots on goal battle in four of them. Philly won Game One 2-1, despite getting only 14 shots.

For the series, Boucher had a sterling SV% of .940, and Brodeur looked tired or uninspired with a mark of .881: virtually first and last among all qualifying goalies in the opening round. Few saw that coming.

And, you may have noticed that Boucher is getting all the press.

The only match for the SOGD statistic is a hot goalie. How to predict a hot goalie is the quandry I have yet to solve.

3) Washington in 5 over Montreal.

The shocker of the tournament. Even if Montreal beats Pittsburgh in Round Two, it will not be the gargantuan giant-felling that this 7-game epic was.

And, just like Boucher in the Phi/NJ series, it's a goaltender of the underdog who is getting the credit (and rightfully so): Jaroslav Halak.

Halak is just a shave behind Boucher in the SV% department (.939), but he faced nearly twice as many shots.

The Capitals, meanwhile, seemed to not know how to handle the increasing pressure, having blown through to a division title and the President's Trophy.

Montreal had (and still has) nothing to lose.

Moving now to a quick look at Round 2.

Here are the SOGD averages for the season (and the SOGD averages after the trade deadline) of the surviving teams.

Eastern Conference
4. Pittsburgh +4.1 (+8.9)
6. Boston +1.9 (+4.1)
7. Philadelphia +3.0 (+2.0)
8. Montreal -3.5 (+0.4)

Western Conference
1. San Jose +0.4 (+0.7)
2. Chicago +9.0 (+7.3)
3. Vancouver +1.4 (+1.4)
5. Detroit +4.0 (+7.1)

Western Conference

#1 San Jose vs. #5 Detroit

The Sharks struggled against the only team in the tournament with a negative SOGD in both the regular season and trade deadline categories.

Now, they're facing a Red Wings team that finally found their championship stride in the final two periods of Game 7 against the otherwise very game Phoenix Coyotes.

Statistically, Detroit should roll in five, especially if you take into account San Jose's goalie Evgeni Nabokov's tendency to underperform in the playoffs.

That said, I think San Jose was looking past Colorado and allowed them to gain some confidence. They know they're up against the two-time defending Western Conference champions, so that should light more of a fire. Still...

Red Wings in six.

#2 Chicago vs. #3 Vancouver

The roles are reversed this year, with Chicago having home ice advantage.

What is the same, though, is that Chicago has a decided advantage in SOGD, both for the entire season and post-deadline.

The only thing weighing a little more in Vancouver's favor is that their SOGD is in the positive this year (unlike last year), so they're not necessarily a "sure thing" to be eliminated from winning it all.

Luongo could perform better this series than last, but his counterpart, Antti Niemi faced five more shots than Luongo in round one and made nine more saves (.921 SV%).

Luongo will very likely face several more shots than he saw against the Kings and will have to start performing better from the moment the puck drops at the United Center on Saturday.

Blackhawks in six.

Eastern Conference

#4 Pittsburgh vs. #8 Montreal

For Montreal, it's out of the frying pan and into the fire.

They oust the President's Cup winner in historic fashion (the first #8 seed to defeat a #1 after falling behind three games to one), only to face the defending Stanley Cup champions who looked pretty impressive most of the time against Ottawa.

In order to win, Jaroslav Halak will have to perform like he did in Games Six and Seven of the Capitals season at least four times. Montreal's defense, also, will be tested. They blocked a bunch of shots that never even made it to Halak, and that takes a toll.

Finally, they face their tallest task in Game One. They will have had only one day to revel in their victory only to travel from Washington to Pittsburgh to face a rested Penguin team.

If Montreal can win Game One, that might almost be more impressive than their Game Seven win against the Capitals.

The Penguins are starting to hit their stride, and unless goalie Marc-Andre Fleury implodes, Pittsburgh should finish Montreal quickly.

Penguins in five.

#6 Boston vs. #7 Philadelphia

This will be the most entertaining of the series. Boston's goalie Tuukka Rask was fourth overall in SV% (.927), so if both he and Boucher can perform at similar levels, there won't be many goals scored.

Not only that, but the season-long SOGD works in favor of Philadelphia, but the post-deadline stat sways toward Boston. The tiebreaker here might just be Boucher's save percentage combined with Boston's low scoring percentage during the regular season (a league-low 7.5%). It was only 7.8% during round one, so not much better.

With Flyers captain Mike Richards potentially injured and/or not at 100%, there are a lot of questions, but Philadelphia has more recent playoff experience and should prevail.

Flyers in seven.

Enjoy! (And feel free to comment)

#146: Lay Off Big Ben. Now.

2010-04-18T15:19:00.002-04:00

---Public Can Shove Its "Opinion"---

The only thing more irresponsible than Ben Roethlisberger flirting with underage girls in a Georgia bar early last month is the reckless journalistic vigilantism, both local and national, still trying to make him out to be a thuggish sexual predator despite the absence of criminal charges.

TMZ is leading the national smear campaign. For those who don't know TMZ, it is essentially the premier gossip tabloid on the internet. It thrives on rumors of social decadence and overscandalizing the famous.

Meanwhile, the Pittsburgh media has just never liked Big Ben, probably because he isn't as accessible to the media as other big-time athletes in the city like Sidney Crosby or Jerome Bettis. Therefore, he must be an obnoxious jerk 24/7.

Even one of the media members with credentials to get into the press conference called by Baldwin County District Attorney Fred Bright, asked such a barbed question, that should have been enough to have those creditials revoked:

Are you aware if the alleged victim or the bar owner at Capital City received compensation from Roethlisberger?

I'm sorry. I thought that there were going to be no charges filed. I would also "dare" to think that money trails would turn up in an investigation. Unless, of course, Ben just paid everyone off - bar owner, accuser, police, bouncers, and district attorneys alike.

That certainly does make more sense and is far less complicated than considering that no rape or sexual assault occured.

OK. No it doesn't.

Regardless of the lack of evidence, the public has swallowed all of what remains - hook, line and sinker.

This must be due to our world view for the past 15 years or so, ever since O.J. Simpson was acquitted of double murder back in 1995. Very few people today believe Simpson is innocent (myself included), and even a civil court ruled that Simpson owed the family of the deceased Ron Goldman money for wrongful death (an obvious contradiction from the criminal court findings).

Now, seemingly all celebrities who are accused of criminal activity are crucified in public, regardless of whether the case is ever heard in the courts.

In Roethlisberger's case, it's made no easier by the civil case he already faces in Nevada for a sexual assault that allegedly happened in 2008, according to the plaintiff, Andrea McNulty.

Upon reading this court filing (in PDF format - Adobe Acrobat), it is going to be difficult to convince a judge, or perhaps a jury, that the story is not a complete fabrication. It really begins to get "out there" on page 14 into page 15, when she accuses the other defendants in the suit (employees of Harrah's Casino in Lake Tahoe) that they tampered with her personal computer records to paint her as an unstable individual.

While a civil trial does not require "proof beyond a reasonable doubt," as a criminal trial does, the plausible-but-highly-unlikely back story doesn't scream in favor of a monetary award.

Back to Georgia, the public is labeling Roethlisberger as a "serial rapist" as though the accuser (note: not "victim") is as much a saint as the Steeler QB is a sinner.

Some simply say "he's done it before" (referring to Lake Tahoe), without reading the unlikely circumstances in the court filing above, and without taking into account that Roethlisberger has not been charged by law enforcement in a town that has no specific loyalty to the Pittsburgh Steelers.

Stories like this are the ones getting all the exposure.

Not stories that point to conflicting statements by the accuser and her friends. Again, from the Fred Bright press conference:

[T]he first words out of his lips, the police officer’s, he said, ‘Did he rape you?’ And her response was, ‘No.’ Next, the first officer said, ‘Did they have sex?’ And she said, ‘Well, I’m not sure.’ And then – and I’m giving you the spectrum here – we go to her first statement in her own handwriting, and I think it’s still pretty clear she was still intoxicated at that point; this was down at the Milledgeville police station. And she said in her own handwriting, ‘I don’t know if this is a good idea. He said It’s OK. He had sex with me.’ Then the progression will go to her second statement, in her own handwriting, and this is probably 12, 13 hours later, again at the Milledgeville police department. She’s sober by now and coherent, and in her own words she said, and this is in her handwriting, ‘I told him it wasn’t OK. No. We don’t need to do this. And I proceeded to get up and try to leave. I went to the first door I saw, which happened to be a bathroom. He followed me into the bathroom and shut the door behind him. I still said no. This is not OK. And he then had sex with me. He said it was OK.’ And I’ll give you one more at the hospital: The doctors and nurses have in quotes, and this will be coming from the victim, ‘A boy kind of raped me.’ I don’t really want to go any further than that, but I’m trying to give a fair spectrum of the progression from the initial statement.

The irresponsibility of the media and the prejudice of the public at large are (and already have) started to open the flood gates.

Could Ben be guilty in one or more of these allegations? Sure, but you have to show it to me by proving it to a jury, since I am not personally involved. Conspiracy theories and venomous labels amount to no more than a witch hunt.

In the meantime, the only judgment that I, or anyone else, can level is that Roethlisberger needs to start hanging out with women in (or close to) his own tax bracket.

#145: 2009-2010 NHL Playoff Preview...

2010-04-12T18:26:00.005-04:00

---...Shots-on-Goal Style---

It's time to crunch my favorite hockey numbers yet again and how they will translate into Stanley Cup contenders, as well as a projected winner.

Last year using Shots-on-Goal differential (SOGD), I accurately predicted the winner in 11 out of 15 series, including the first-round stunner that was #8 Anaheim over #1 San Jose (though the reason for the upset wasn't what I thought it would be).

Interestingly, if you look at the numbers from the past few seasons from the playoff participants, there were roughly an average of 6 teams out of the 16 who entered the playoffs with a negative SOGD on the season. This year, there are just two (Montreal and Colorado), and they are both the #8 seeds in their respective conferences.

For those of you just reading about SOGD for the first time, it's simply the average number of shots a team takes per game, then subtracting the average number of shots it allows. Historically, only two teams have won the Stanley Cup since 1990 with a negative SOGD, and each had mitigating circumstances.

The 1990-1991 Penguins made significant acquisitions at the trade deadline, most notably face-off wizard Ron Francis and intimidating defenseman Ulf Samuelsson. Their contributions were not enough to completely offset the negative SOGD the team had accrued to that point.

Last year's Penguins had similar circumstances, though the most significant change came at head coach. Under Dan Bylsma, the Pens' offense transformed into a puck possession teams, emulating the Detroit Red Wings and ultimately eliminating them for hockey's greatest prize.

Enough exposition. Let's crunch some numbers.

Below is how each team finished the regular season in their respective conferences. Next to each team is its season-long SOGD. Next to the playoff teams only, in parentheses, is the SOGD starting March 3 (trade deadline) through the end of the year.

Eastern Conference
1. Washington +1.9 (+3.5)
2. New Jersey +3.0 (+3.8)
3. Buffalo +0.2 (+0.2)
4. Pittsburgh +4.1 (+8.9)
5. Ottawa +1.2 (+1.5)
6. Boston +1.9 (+4.1)
7. Philadelphia +3.0 (+2.0)
8. Montreal -3.5 (+0.4)
====================================
9. NY Rangers -0.3
10. Atlanta -3.7
11. Carolina -2.1
12. Tampa Bay -2.5
13. NY Islanders -1.5
14. Florida -5.7
15. Toronto +2.8

Western Conference
1. San Jose +0.4 (+0.7)
2. Chicago +9.0 (+7.3)
3. Vancouver +1.4 (+1.4)
4. Phoenix +0.9 (+1.8)
5. Detroit +4.0 (+7.1)
6. Los Angeles +1.6 (+2.1)
7. Nashville +1.4 (+2.7)
8. Colorado -4.2 (-2.4)
====================================
9. St. Louis -0.3
10. Calgary -0.3
11. Anaheim -3.2
12. Dallas -0.4
13. Minnesota -1.8
14. Columbus -2.1
15. Edmonton -4.8

The fact that there are only two teams in the entire field that are - historically speaking, at least - virtually eliminated from Cup contention based on SOGD means that we're going to be in for a spectacular tournament, with lots of deep series.

Unfortunately, I don't have much time to break everything down the way I'd like, but here we go with some mini-capsules and picks. We'll start out west.

Western Conference

#1 San Jose vs. #8 Colorado

The Avalanche are much improved over last year's conference-worst finish in the standings. Still, they have a long way to go. This series with the Sharks should help the younger players on this squad where they need to start.

The Sharks have not played their puck-possession game as consistently as they would like, out-shooting their opponents by a ton, then getting out-shot by a similar margin the next night.

If the Sharks decide to catch fire right now, this will be a sweep.

Still, Avs goalie Craig Anderson has shown he can withstand a barrage of shots from time to time and may be able to help his team take a game or two.

No first round exit for San Jose, regardless.

Sharks in five.

#2 Chicago vs. #7 Nashville

I'll say right now that Chicago is my pick to represent the Western Conference in the Stanley Cup Final, provided they don't sustain any more injuries. Brian Campbell, one of their top defensemen, was injured during a game against Washington, but he may end up being ready for this series against Nashville. If he isn't hampered too badly, Chicago's run to 12 wins may be even shorter.

The Predators only hope of prolonging this series is keeping five men on the ice as frequently as possible.

Statistically, this should probably be a sweep for the Blackhawks, but, as they are divisional foes, Nashville probably has a trick or two up their sleeve that might make this a bit more interesting.

Blackhawks in six.

#3 Vancouver vs. #6 Los Angeles

Last year, I predicted the St. Louis Blues would defeat the Canucks and was soundly proven wrong by a four-game sweep by the Northwest Division champions. Once again, this year's SOGD numbers show an edge to Vancouver's opponent.

One has to wonder how much, if any, effect, playing all the way through to the gold medal game of the Olympics may have drained superstar goalie Roberto Luongo. The onus will once again be on him to prevent a first-round "upset," just as he did last year.

This will be a super series that will go down to the wire. Can the Kings contain the Sedin twins? Can Anze Kopitar and crew crack Luongo? Will all the investments made by the Kings in the offseason result in an appearance in the conference semi-finals?

Yes.

Kings in a thrilling seven.

#4 Phoenix vs. #5 Detroit

A tale of two franchises. One is a perennial stalwart who very few want to see in the postseason, and whose fan base is legendary. The other is a team that might not even be in its current city after this season and has been considered something of a laughingstock.

Phoenix, a town that rarely sees a snowflake, let alone entire sheets of ice, has nothing to lose by being here. The Red Wings are better than 1-to-2 favorites in this series according to most sports books.

But the disrespect card and a formidable goalie in Ilya Bryzgalov won't be enough to even slow down Detroit's Red Machine.

Phoenix may very well go the way of last year's Blue Jackets.

Red Wings in four.

Eastern Conference

#1 Washington vs. #8 Montreal

Montreal has been playing better hockey overall since the Olympic break, and some think that the Capitals are about ready to fizzle after earning 120 out of a possible 164 points in the standings during a stellar regular season.

Not so.

Washington may not be invincible, but the Canadiens do not have what it takes to beat a team that has shown a hunger all year since their loss to the Penguins last year in a seven game series, the finale of which wasn't even close.

This one could be over quickly, but we'll get to see what Habs netminder Jaroslav Halak is made of. He tends to do well when being under constant bombardment, and he is certain to see several pucks flying his way.

Capitals in five.

#2 New Jersey vs. #7 Philadelphia

Slow and steady wins the race. Especially if you're New Jersey. The Devils have managed to stay a competitive - if not elite - team since various rule changes after the lockout a few years ago opened up the game and nullified their effective, if unexciting, trap defense.

They have not been in the headlines very often amongst teams in their division, what with the Stanley Cup champion Penguins, two teams from New York, and the ever-interesting Flyers gobbling up the attention, but the Devils outlasted them all to win the Atlantic while no one was watching.

Much has been made of Philadelphia's 5-1 regular season record against New Jersey, but I don't think that factors in here. While Jeff Carter has returned from injury, he won't be at 100%, and I think the Flyers would need him to be a central figure in this series if they were to win.

It should still be a good one, filled with all forms of ire and hate as they cross back-and-forth across the Delaware river.

Devils in six.

#3 Buffalo vs. #6 Boston

Sabres goalie Ryan Miller is a stud, and if Buffalo prevails against Boston it will be due to a combination of Miller and Boston's poor shooting percentage.

Still, Boston has received some good goaltending of their own and are a better puck-possession team, as indicated by their superior SOGD (nearly four shots per game better).

And, finally, the experience factor. Buffalo has been absent from the playoffs for two seasons, whereas Boston was a #1 seed last year without the benefit of a positive SOGD.

More divisional rivalry fun in round one.

Boston in seven.

#4 Pittsburgh vs #5 Ottawa

The only thing that can kill a return to the Stanley Cup Final for Pittsburgh is Marc-Andre Fleury.

Apologists in the media in the fan base try to blame the defense or say that he still hasn't reached his prime yet or some other limp excuse, but when your only shutout of the year occurs after facing just 17 shots against the worst-shooting team in the league, it is obvious he needs to ratchet it up a gear of five.

Once again, Bylsma's team is turning a high SOGD, which should have been enough to hack out a couple of wins that turned out to be losses.

The Penguins are stacked and should be able to move steadily through the East.

On the flipside, Ottawa's fortunes depend on how tall rookie Brian Elliot can stand in goal and how much his defense helps out against a team that throws a tied-for-conference best 32.8 shots per game.

During the regular season, Ottawa was able to contain that somewhat. But, as you've heard for as long as you've watched hockey, the playoffs are a different atmosphere, and one in which the flightless birds have become quite accustomed.

Elliot's not ready for this yet, but he might be by this time next year.

Penguins in five.

Right now, I see Detroit and Chicago in a Western Conference final rematch and Pittsburgh and Washington in the East, with Chicago defeating Pittsburgh for the Cup, but the landscape may change drastically in a week and a half from now.

Visit again for the second round preview, and, by all means, feel free to comment with your predictions.